Introduction
Every year when we look at the results of the Top 25 Under 25, it’s rather remarkable how similar the placements are between the Eyes On The Prize staff and those of the hundreds of community lists that make up our EOTP ranking. Sometimes, the numbers are so similar that it’s hardly worth discussing the discrepancies between the two groups of voters. This year, there is once again a lot of consensus, with 39 of the 54 players separated by no more than two spots, but there were also some significant disagreements that deserve a second look.
Voting differences
We’ll go through the list of the most notable differences, going in order from the highest ranked overall to the lowest.
#6 Lane Hutson
Staff: #4 | Community: #7 | Difference: +3
A three-place difference is among the smallest to be found in the rankings, but this high in the order it’s a significant margin. It is important to note that from positions four to seven in our countdown, the average that was used to rank the players ranged from 5.17 to 5.67. It is a group of promising players — Kaiden Guhle, Juraj Slafkovský, Lane Hutson, and David Reinbacher — fighting for the title of fourth-best player under 25 in the organization, and with Suzuki’s graduation ahead of next fall, that will shift to a battle for at least third.
Hutson had already debuted high at 13th despite his status as a late second-rounder a year ago, but both groups of voters moved him up following a 1.23 points-per-game season in his freshman year at Boston University. exceptional production for a forward in the NCAA let alone a rookie defenceman.
The distributions aren’t so different in many respects — outside of the three staff members who had Hutson at third, behind only Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. His season playing among older, more physically mature players in the NCAA convinced the majority of us that he could one day translate his offensive gifts to an NHL role and deserved a spot right up among a group of top-five draft selections. For a trio of writers, it was enough to anoint him the top prospect in the system.
“This is such an outrageous ranking, why even stop here at #6. Why not put him at #1?” — Seps
“Had him at 11. Very shiny new toy and I really hope he becomes the player that many people here are anticipating. It feels almost too good to be true.” — Columbo Montoban
“Most exciting player in our pipeline since Subban IMO. Had him at #6 and really want him to climb to #1 once he’s proven he can play in the NHL.” — EuroHab
“Happy to see Hutson at #6, I was “afraid” the hype would bring him into the top 5, for which it is too soon to tell, as far as I’m concerned.” — Athoseamus
#15 Sean Farrell
Staff: #11 | Community: #16 | Difference: +5
Sean Farrell ranked an uncontroversial ninth last summer. This year he put together an excellent campaign at Harvard, scoring better than one-and-a-half points per game while working on some of his weaknesses, and then signed his entry-level contract to become a professional.
That debut in the NHL didn’t go as well as anticipated, as the increase in competition from his Ivy League stint seemed to catch him off-guard. He wasn’t having the same type of impact he’d grown used to, even in international competition.
The NHL minutes made some staff members place him lower on their lists, but six of the nine of us still see him as a top-10 player in the countdown. We think the offensive talent is still there and just needs a better situation than the one he was dropped into at the end of the season to display it. Some members of the community believe the same, but you can practically see the uncertainty that crept into the community with a histogram leaning back from a normal distribution. Farrell dropped from ninth to 15th in the community ballot as people fear that his struggles in the top league may not be easily overcome.
“I left Farrell out of my top-25 because I view him most similarly to Charles Hudon. A very good pro player for whom there just wasn’t a viable spot for in the NHL.” — Big Bird
“I had Farrell at 9, I’m surprised he’s here, to me he has clear 2nd line upside and is very close to NHL ready.” — A_Habs_fan
“I just don’t understand how he can be thought of by anyone as a more valuable NHL prospect than Xhekaj or Mailloux.” — Howie7
#17 Arber Xhekaj
Staff: #17 | Community: #10 | Difference: -7
No ranking was as controversial as Arber Xhekaj’s at #17. The staff and community have completely different valuations of the defenceman, which is relatively rare in this project.
I will say I was surprised that my ranking at 17th was the highest among the staff because on my ballot, which I do by each position and then merge those lists together, I had Xhekaj one spot behind Logan Mailloux and didn’t expect others to have that same relative ranking.
There is also some important context for this placement in the list: the gap from Filip Mesar in 18th (a 19.33 average) to Xhekaj in 17th (15.67) was the highest (3.67) between any two players in the 54-player list. Xhekaj began a new tier of 17 players who will probably be NHLers, which is a rather incredible number.
The difference is that most of the staff regard Xhekaj as a bottom-four or third-pairing NHL defenceman, while the community sees greater heights in his future and/or contributions beyond his station in a lineup. He has developed rapidly over the past few years, and there’s no reason to expect that rise to come to a sudden halt.
His distribution of community votes is bimodal, with the main peak of 66 votes at 10 and then a smaller one a few spots later. Even that second summit is found earlier than our highest votes at 17th. As with all players, there’s a trailing tail from those who hold him in lower regard, but that is a small percentage of the total votes in this case.
“This is insanity!!!” — the pinstripes-2008
“There are a few guys I could have put ahead of him but no way I would have put him outside of my top 15.” — Dale Campbell
“Not at all surprised by this, I had Xhekaj at 22, I love him but his ceiling is most likely a 3rd pair D, we have plenty of players with more potential that I’d rather keep.” — A_Habs_fan
“Xhekaj is just as important as Suzuki and Caufield are.” — Onside
“I had him at #14 and there is no one from 1-13 that I would put him ahead of. But there are a few after that I easily could have put ahead of him. So I can see #17 as fair.” — Tythan
“When I was off on where I placed somebody I was first to admit it but I will stand by my having Xhekaj at 6.” — GetEm
“Okay, who’s gonna tell him he’s not number one?” — Frank
#29 Cayden Primeau
Staff: #29 | Community: #23 | Difference: -6
For years, the rise of Cayden Primeau was one of the top stories in our countdown. He improved from his draft year through his surprisingly brief collegiate career, then had a quality two-game stint in the NHL during his first season as a pro.
As the years followed, his performance in NHL minutes became more concerning, while his play in the AHL seemed to stagnate. From risiing every year from his draft in 2017 to 2020, he slipped a spot in 2021, and that became a trend in the wrong direction over the next few seasons. A very good playoff run kept him at 11th last summer, but without that extended period of quality play, and with more rough outings with the Canadiens, he plummeted out of the Top 25 for the first time since a few months after he was selected in the seventh round of the NHL Draft.
He’s a long way from the sure bet to become an NHL regular he appeared on track for a few years ago. Most people aren’t prepared to give up on him just yet, with both charts having a group of votes around the 25th rank. The difference is how many staff members have turned their gaze away from the netminder, which is easier to do after the team selected three promising netminders this summer.
Primeau was a stopper in the bottle when doing my list. Those younger goalies in the system have impressive résumés, but none has posted numbers like what Primeau did at Northeastern, nor had the post-season showing at a pro level like Primeau had in 2022. There is a good goaltender in Primeau, and though this is his last year in this project, he’s shown enough to keep some faith in his NHL chances.
“I might be way off, but he is still a 23 year old with no draft pedigree being good enough for the A, so I value him higher than some prospects who have not made it that far.” — DonFulke73
“Primeau especially has shown that he’s not the Canadiens goaltender of the future.” — Jaskwatch
“I had Cayden at 22. Too young to completely give up on yet for a goalie IMO.” — Howie7
#30 Xavier Simoneau
Staff: #26 | Community: #34 | Difference: +8
Xavier Simoneau hasn’t made much headway in three years in this project, starting a 32 in 2021 and now sititng 30th for the second year in a row. Neither group of voters placed him within the Top 25, but his work in the AHL has a portion of the staff pulling him toward that position.
“Could see him getting into a few games as an injury call up somewhere down the line.” — Jaskwatch
#31 Mattias Norlinder
Staff: #28 | Community: #33 | Difference: +5
There was no player in the organization like Mattias Norlinder when he was drafted. He seemed destined for a big offensive role with the Canadiens based on his impressive skills in the SHL. But outside of the occasional flash, we have yet to see that even in the AHL. Those flashes still offer some hope that we’ll see the creative defenceman re-emerge, but those hopes fade with each disappointing season.
“I am surprised to see him this high. His fate is sealed and it does not belong to the NHL.” — Morrissey stan account
#34 Luke Tuch
Staff: #38 | Community: #29 | Difference: -9
The biggest gap was found in the voting for Luke Tuch. In the few years after his second-round selection, that would have led to major arguments, but he passed by in the 2023 rankings with barely a mention. If there is any conversation to be held about the 2020 second-rounder, as the years go by those debates are happening farther out of earshot of the Top 25.
“[I]n terms of probability of success and how long we’re waiting, I’d prefer to lose any of Fowler, Dobes or Primeau over a skater with a legit shot of being in an NHL lineup in 2-3 years, whether that’s Trudeau, Davidson, Kapanen or Tuch.” — Watty4ever
#35 Bogdan Konyushkov
Staff: #34 | Community: #41 | Difference: +7
There’s hardly a consensus of any sort on where to rank Bogdan Konyushkov, with only a hadful of votes in the top half of the order from the entire sample. I predicted a large jump for the defenceman in next year’s rankings, when I expect these charts to tighten up around a spot within the Top 25.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we start talking about Konyushkov as the steal of the 2023 draft a few years down the road.” — Habit24
