2023 Montreal Canadiens Top 25 Under 25: #4 Kaiden Guhle

Introduction

Kaiden Guhle’s first taste of professional hockey came early in his career. The Montreal Canadiens’ 16th overall pick in 2020 got into three games in the AHL during the COVID-19-impacted WHL season in 2020-21 before returning to the Prince Albert Raiders when that league started back up. After a trade to the Edmonton Oil Kings and a trip to the Memorial Cup to wrap up his Junior career a year later, it was straight to the NHL for him in 2022-23.

Thrust into a top-four role on a rebuilding Montreal team, three separate injuries ended up limiting him to just 44 games. Out of the frying pan, into the fire, he had little time to adjust to pro hockey with “welcome to the NHL” moments on a nightly basis as a rookie taking on top opposition.

Yet, he remains one of the best young defencemen in the Canadiens’ system, and what we saw from Guhle in those 44 games suggested he is still on his way to a big role with the team on the other side of its rebuild. His 18 points from the blue line were behind only Mike Matheson and David Savard, the latter of whom played 18 more games to record two more points.

More importantly, Guhle showed that he was capable of stepping into a role that usually doesn’t go to rookies: playing against the best competition night in and night out. In terms of the quality of his competition, he was essentially a top-pairing player whenever he was available.

He’ll be looking to take a step forward this season, and is a potential candidate for a big breakout. At least on paper, the team looks better than they were last year, and some better luck on the injury front should give him an opportunity to show what he can do in somewhat easier minutes.

Voting

Our panel remains quite high on Guhle, with no votes lower than seventh, and two ballots giving him top-three nods. The EOTP community vote agreed with our managing editor, and ended up placing Guhle precisely where he lands on our list at fourth.

Top 25 Under 25 History

Guhle debuted inside our top 10 in his draft year, and rose into the top five in his next two cracks. He retains his position of fourth this year despite a number of great prospects breathing down his neck.

History of #4

Strengths

Guhle’s penchant for meeting opposing forwards at the blue line with thunderous body checks has always been a hallmark of his game. He craves physicality, and as he adapted to the speed of professional hockey throughout the year, we saw him getting more and more aggressive with oncoming puck-carriers. He wasn’t quite at the level he was in the WHL, but he showed that as he continues to gain experience, this will become increasingly prevalent in his game.

Going the other way, he also has a very smooth stride in his skating, and better top-end speed than most defencemen of his size profile. He uses crossovers to pick up speed going through the neutral zone, and protects the puck well until he can get himself into a position to dish the puck.

His creativity with the puck at the blue line is also a strength. He favours a quick wrister or snapshot when the time is right, but is also not hesitant to carry the puck down into the slot to create chances. When he does, he has solid vision and passing skills to get the puck to his teammates after moving the opposing coverage around with his legs.

Overall, his profile is that of a solid two-way defenceman who could be a top-pairing player for the Canadiens for many years. The question is how he can take that next step, and whether or not he’ll be able to do it this year.

Weaknesses

Taking that next step requires figuring out how to better turn his defensive prowess into offensive opportunities. Jason Paul’s data paints Guhle as a player with relatively strong suppression numbers, but struggling to generate offence. He spent the bulk of his year with either David Savard or Joel Edmundson as his partner, and we can see that there was an uptick defensively when he played with the latter, but neither pairing saw much success in generating opportunities.

Respectable defensive numbers in the tough minutes those pairings had to eat are nice to see, but the lack of offence is concerning. That said, offensive output was slow to come on for Guhle in Junior as well, so it isn’t surprising that he’d have a similar development curve after making the jump to the NHL.

Context matters, and you can’t ignore just how tough his minutes were. If the Habs can figure out the right deployment for Guhle this coming season, it would go a long way to that aforementioned breakout season.

Projection

Guhle slots in as a clear number-two option behind Mike Matheson on the left side, and who he plays with should be the only thing up for debate at this stage. Johnny Kovacevic seems a solid option, as he’s been able to elevate offensive opportunities for almost everyone he’s played with. Another option could be Justin Barron, who improved rapidly throughout last season, and should be earning himself a roster spot coming out of camp this year.

Either of these options seem preferable at this point to putting Guhle back with David Savard, as that pair largely struggled. Guhle just never got a chance to ease into the grind of the NHL, and one could hypothesize that this had something to do with his injury troubles. The keys to maximizing his potential would be finding the right partner, but also giving him the chance to develop without having to face top opposition every shift.

In particular, Matheson staying healthy this year would be a massive benefit, as it would allow Guhle that step down in opponent quality. The Matheson and Savard pairing was reasonably good in their time together, so running with that out of the gate should allow Guhle to play second-pair minutes, and potentially put him in an advantageous position for offensive output.

Guhle’s ceiling is that of a top-pair, two-way defenceman for many years in Montreal. Getting him in the right role this season could go a long way to him reaching that potential.

Jason Paul joins Patrik Bexell to discuss Guhle on the podcast.

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