2023 Montreal Canadiens Top 25 Under 25: #18 Filip Mesar

Introduction

Part of what makes this project great is that it’s a snapshot of a point in time. As much as this ranking is about forecasting a player’s future, it’s also linked to a player’s past. There’s no better example of this than with Filip Mesar.

In his draft+1 season, Mesar made his North American debut. He was with the Montreal Canadiens in rookie camp, training camp, pre-season, and played one game with the Laval Rocket in the AHL before being assigned to the Ontario Hockey League. In 52 games, he had 51 points.

Although those numbers are solid, they are perhaps a little underwhelming for an offence-first skill player in the year after being drafted. Of course, it was also his first year in North America at 18 years old, which is an adjustment both on and off the ice even though he had played professionally in Slovakia.

Mesar added four points in nine OHL playoff games, but his best hockey of the year may have been at the World Junior Hockey Championship. While his two goals and four assists in five games don’t jump off the page, he was tied for the team scoring lead, and had one of the best games of the tournament against Canada in the quarterfinal. He only had an assist in the game, but it looked at times like Slovakia’s offence ran through Mesar like a basketball offence runs through the point guard.

Voting

The voting panel soured a bit on Mesar after his top-10 debut, with one vote even outside the Top 25 completely. I was highest on Mesar, just, while Nathan and the EOTP community vote had him slotted in the perfect spot.

T25U25 History

2022 Montreal Canadiens Top 25 Under 25: #10 Filip Mešár

The other first-round Slovak has the potential to be a key player if his development is handled correctly.

Eyes On The PrizePatrik Bexell

Mesar dropped eight spots after his debut, mostly because his season was simply not as good as others around him. Despite having him highest among all panellists, Mesar dropped five spots in my personal ranking mostly because of those around him rather than Mesar himself.

The rising depth of the prospect pool means that if you tread water, you may still lose some ground and that seems to be what happened to Mesar did here.

History of #18

Strengths

Mesar’s game is all about offence. That isn’t to say he’s poor defensively, but it’s clear where the strength of his game is. What struck me most about his play at the World Juniors was just how important he was to Slovakia without putting up big points.

The tracking project by Lassi Alanen of Elite Prospects shows why I got that impression. While his creation numbers weren’t as high as you would expect, his transition numbers put him among one of the best players in the tournament in that category.

He was a zone exit and entry machine, and his playmaking was on display as well once he got into the offensive zone. Perhaps most interesting is that despite his smaller stature, he was one of the best players in the tournament at getting the puck off the wall and into the middle (read: dangerous) part of the ice.

There’s also the question of the situation he was in while playing for Kitchener. He wasn’t given a top-line role, and so much production can be attributed to role, especially at younger levels. Of his 51 points, 33 were scored as even strength.

Weaknesses

Make no mistake, the real reason why Mesar fell in the rankings isn’t because of a glaring weakness but because his strength didn’t show up in the scoresheet and production as much as you would like to see. That’s not a knock on the voting panel, it’s a legitimate concern and can affect how you view his upside in relation to the other players in the organization.

Perhaps most encouraging is that Mesar knew it too. Not that I think he much cares for where he’s ranked in this ranking but at the team’s development camp, he talked about how his stretch of play after the World Juniors was the most unluckiest of his hockey career. He said he thought he was playing his best hockey of the season but nothing was going in.

In Mitch Brown and Lassi Alanen’s tracking project for the CHL and USHL, he found himself an above average playmaker in terms of the likelihood of his assists becoming goals.

His OHL tracking data was similar to his WJC data, scoring high in transition. The main difference was that his success on plays in the OHL sample was lower, but he was among the best players at attempting to get the puck to the most dangerous area.

He’s not the biggest player, which can limit his overall potential, and he isn’t much of a factor in the defensive zone. That isn’t to say he’s bad defensively, but there’s room for improvement, and depending whether he reaches his offensive potential it may need to improve for him to jump to the next level.

In the chart above, you’ll notice he’s well below average in defensive plays.

Projection

Since he was drafted, I have been struck by Mesar’s realistic evaluation of his own game. After his AHL debut, before being sent to the CHL, his expectations were that he would come back this season and compete for a job with the Rocket. At development camp, he restated that his goal is to be in the AHL this year.

He should have a big role with the Rocket, and it will be a good chance for him and all of the young players because there are many opportunities for them to get playing time and get important minutes.

Mesar has always said he is a few years away from the NHL, so his focus now is purely on development. So much of this ranking, for better or for worse, is based on ‘what have you done lately’ and entering his 19-year-old season, Mesar has a great chance to improve his ranking with a better season. Another year of treading water can have the opposite effect.

For me, his upside is still high and promising for me and I think there’s a focus on his game that he’s always looking for improvement. It’s a quality I see a lot with players from Montreal’s 2022 Draft class. As much as I would have liked to see more production from him, I can’t get that quarterfinal game against Canada out of my mind when I look at him as a prospect and his potential.

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Eyes On The PrizeMatt Drake