2023 Montreal Canadiens Top 25 Under 25: #9 Joshua Roy

Introduction

With the benefit of hindsight, it can be said with conviction that Joshua Roy shouldn’t have been available anywhere near the 150th overall pick with which the Montreal Canadiens selected him in the 2021 NHL draft. A lacklustre draft year, split between the Sherbrooke Phoenix and Saint John Seadogs, saw the former first-overall QMJHL pick fall into the fifth round, where you rarely find 100-plus point junior players.

But that’s exactly what he was and he proved it the very next season with a league-leading 119 points in his first full season with Sherbrooke. It earned him Team Canada honours, where he became a key player in their gold medal win at the summer version of the 2022 World Junior Ice Hockey Championship.

He’d represent Canada yet again at the 2023 World Juniors, winning another gold medal in an even bigger role for his country. He was second behind only Connor Bedard in team scoring, and assisted on the golden goal to cap off an incredible tournament. With another 99 points in 56 games for Sherbrooke in league play, his body of work through two seasons since being drafted  has solidified that the Habs found themselves a diamond in the rough.

He is arguably the most improved prospect in the system over the last two years. He’s ready for the next step in his career and a big test with professional hockey in 2023-24.

Voting

Most of our panel placed Roy near or at the tail end of their top 10, with a few placing him just outside and into the early teens. You’ll note a single voter in the top five, and of course I know him, as he is me. I feel that the improvements he’s made in the last two years make him one of the best prospects in the system right now, and I’ll get to those improvements after the jump.

T25U25 History

Debuting outside of the top 20 after being drafted, he shot all the way into the top-10 in his second year of eligibility thanks to his breakout season in Sherbrooke. He falls victim to a strong group around him this year, sliding two spots but still holding on to a top-10 ranking.

History of #9

Strengths

In his draft year, the book on Roy was that of a one-dimensional shooter, capable of beating junior goaltenders with his wrister but lacking vision and needing significant work on his skating. Since then, he has done nothing but add layers to his game and turns pro as a far more complete player.

He remains a deadly accurate shooter, but the vision and passing skills have really come together in the last two seasons to make him a well-rounded offensive threat. Averaging exactly an assist per game through his final two years of junior, his innate awareness of where his linemates are on the ice allow him to complete no-look passes that baffle the opposition. He uses the threat of his shot to constantly manipulate defenders, open up passing lanes, and select the best option based on what is presented to him.

On the forecheck, he’s a nightmare to deal with in junior. At six feet tall and around 200 pounds, he has solid physical traits to muscle opponents off the puck, and these seem projectable to the professional game. Moreover, he’s extremely crafty with his stick and tends to approach puck carriers from awkward angles, utilizing quick hands to take the puck without contact.

Seemingly out of nowhere, he also became one of the best penalty killers in junior hockey, to the point where he’s even able to generate offensive opportunities. He had four shorthanded goals, and was the go-to forward for a QMJHL-best Sherbrooke unit that killed 83% of their opportunities. Team Canada certainly took note of those abilities at the World Juniors, utilizing him in all situations to impressive results.  

He’s also managed to become a defensive stalwart. The same physicality and stick work that make him a problem on the forecheck are evident in his own zone. You often see opposing players get frustrated at how he’ll strip the puck from them and end up taking undisciplined penalties against him as a result. For his part, a paltry 12 penalty minutes on the year proves that he keeps strict discipline with his own stick work.

Weaknesses

Though his skating is better than it was two years ago, it remains an area that could prove problematic for him at the NHL level. His speed has gotten better, and it has positively impacted his transition game in junior, but there is a gulf between the QMJHL and professional hockey that he needs to cross. As good as he is in the offensive and defensive zones, the one area of his game where he still struggles to drive play is in transition.

Perhaps more important than speed would be getting more deceptive with his skating. Changes of pace and quicker acceleration should make it considerably easier for him to execute controlled zone exits and entries and enable him to drive play more. He doesn’t need to become Nathan MacKinnon in transition, but improve enough so that he can be less reliant on speedier linemates to get it done for him.

This is where Adam Nicholas will come in huge for Roy’s development. If they can work on getting a little more deceptive in how skating is used to gain the zone and beat defenders, it will open up a plethora of opportunities. He has the tools to be an NHL player as it is, but reaching his true ceiling will still require some work.

Projection

Both his ceiling and his floor have been raised over the last two years. He now has legitimate top-six potential, and the worst-case scenario seems to be him becoming an excellent bottom-six scorer capable of eating big special teams minutes. His ability to play in all situations – and play up and down a lineup like he did with Canada – should earn him an NHL job. His floor is probably Paul Byron, without the blazing speed but with better physical attributes.

With how well he played with the likes of Bedard at the World Juniors, I don’t think it unreasonable to suggest that he could become an option to skate with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Improving his transitional play would be paramount to Roy putting himself in that conversation and it would take some time, but his defensive prowess and compete level on the forecheck could be something that benefits the two best forwards the team has.

It seems more a matter of when he cracks the NHL at this point, and training camp should be telling as to how close he is. As high as I personally am on his abilities, I think the best starting point for him would be in the Laval Rocket’s top six this season, but I wouldn’t be slightly surprised if he makes himself undeniable for Montreal at camp, or ends up a top option to be recalled at some point during the year.

If Montreal can get him to reach his ceiling, he could go down as one of the best Canadiens draft picks in the last 20 years.

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