Game 30: Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Islanders
Start time: 7:00 PM EST / 4:00 PM PST
In Canada: CITY-TV, Sportsnet East (English), TVA Sports (French)
In the Islanders region: MSGSN2
Streaming: ESPN+, Sportsnet
Aside from one quick trip to Buffalo, the Montreal Canadiens have enjoyed the comforts of home thus far in December. Home cooking hasn’t resulted in a complete revival of fortune, but 2-2-2 is far better than the 5-9-0 that November brought. All of that is quickly coming to a close, as Montreal’s Saturday date with the New York Islanders represents their final home game of 2023. A seven-game road swing across the midwest and southeast to close the year awaits the Habs, who will hope to head off with a little spring in their step after a win.
Goal-scoring has been the topic du jour in Montreal, punctuated by two recent shutouts at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings and a one-goal output versus the Nashville Predators on Sunday. To make matters more complicated, of the 15 goals scored by the Canadiens this month, five have come from blue-liners. Cole Caufield hasn’t lit the lamp since November 29, and Josh Anderson, despite technically getting the monkey off his back on December 4, has not scored against a goaltender since March 13.
It’s not for a lack of effort. Adjusted for ice-time, at five-on-five Montreal ranks 15th in shots for, ninth in expected-goals for, and eighth in high-danger chances for during the month of December. A 4.86% team shooting percentage lies at the heart of what ails the Canadiens, and while certain individuals certainly can and should make adjustments, the team as a whole is playing reasonably well — especially now that they don’t have to play the Kings anymore.
| Canadiens | Statistics | Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| 12-13-4 | Record | 14-7-8 |
| 46.6% (27th) | Scoring-chances-for % | 47.1% (24th) |
| 2.62 (28th) | Goals per game | 3.10 (18th) |
| 3.38 (24th) | Goals against per game | 3.17 (15th) |
| 17.0% (22th) | PP% | 25.6% (7th) |
| 72.4% (30th) | PK% | 70.1% (32nd) |
| 1-2-0 | Head-to-Head Record (22-23) | 2-0-1 |
Unfortunately for the Canadiens, the Islanders come to Montreal with the exact opposite situation. Historically known as a team with stingy goaltending, strong defensive structure (fifth in goals against last season), and not that much offensive pop (23rd in goals for in 2022-23), New York’s other team comes to town on the back of a 5-1-1 record in December. Through seven games this month, the Islanders have scored 30 goals — a flurry that still has them below league average when it comes to offensive output.
Amusingly, the Islanders and Canadiens are virtually neck-and-neck under the hood. At five-on-five in December, New York has more shots on goal, Montreal has more high-danger chances, and the Islanders are slightly ahead when it comes to expected goals. The main difference: one team is shooting around 4%, the other around 10%.
Bo Horvat has led the charge for the Islanders, with 13 points so far in the month (29 total). Noah Dobson is having a breakout campaign, with eight points in December and 29 total on the year. Mathew Barzal has nine points in the month as part of his team-leading tally of 32, while Brock Nelson also has nine as part of his 25 on the year. After making his NHL debut in 2022-23, 2019 first-round selection Simon Holmstrom already has nine goals so far in 2023-24 despite mostly skating on the fourth line.
All of this has gone a long way to propelling the Islanders to near the top of the Metropolitan Division. However, the team is hardly without its flaws. While their top six forwards and top defensive pairing — comprising Dobson and old friend Alexander Romanov — have been excellent, the rest of the lineup struggles to stay above water. To put it another way, at five-on-five, top-line Horvat and second-line Nelson have been on the ice for seven and five more goals for than against, respectively. However, third-liner Casey Cizikas has a -3 differential, while fourth-liner Jean-Gabriel Pageau is at -6.
With the Islanders coming into town on the back of a shootout defeat at the hands of the Boston Bruins, the Habs probably won’t have to play against Vezina Trophy nominee Ilya Sorokin. However, this offers little respite, given that backup Semyon Varlamov actually has marginally better statistics.
Once again, the Canadiens play an opponent who will take the ice for the second time in two nights. Despite how it appears on paper, it’s not a situation that has favoured the Habs this year. Can they get a result before leaving Montreal for the rest of the year? Depth, coaching, and line matchups will all play a major role — and a little scoring wouldn’t hurt either.
