If you’re a Montreal Canadiens fan, you’re probably aware that Josh Anderson has yet to score a goal this season. By itself, this statistic is not a cause for excessive concern. Anderson, if nothing else, has historically been a consistent goal-scorer, good for about 20 goals a year throughout his career. But his play this year — and more importantly, the play of the other four Tricolore skaters when he is on the ice — may signal something larger and more problematic.
The first question about Anderson’s drought is whether it’s simply variation. Goal-scoring is, by nature, a streaky business, and it’s certainly not rare for even accomplished snipers to go five or even 10 games without lighting the lamp. Tage Thompson had stretches of one goal in seven games and zero in eight last season en route to 47 on the year. Mikko Rantanen had a two-in-nine stretch as part of his journey to 55, and so on. Of course, Anderson’s zero in 21 is an extreme version of those droughts, but the winger is at least putting up decent underlying statistics. When it comes to shots, chances, and expected goals, Anderson’s numbers are only marginally down relative to both last season and his Montreal tenure as a whole.
The problem is that, for one reason or another, Anderson’s presence on the ice results in extremely poor play from the Canadiens as a team. This is not simply a problem of one part of the machine failing to function properly, it is a cog that is somehow causing the machine to stop.
Despite their 9-10-2 record, the Habs are actually playing better hockey at five-on-five than last year. Looking at both underlying statistics and actual goals for and against, the Canadiens could actually be a potential playoff bubble team — when Anderson is off the ice.
When he’s on the ice, the Canadiens are worse statistically than the San Jose Sharks.
To further complicate matters, this does not appear to simply be a problem of finding the right fit or the right linemates. From Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki to Alex Newhook and Sean Monahan, none of Anderson’s major linemates have found more success with him compared to without him. Every player who has shared the ice with Anderson for at least 50 minutes in 2023-24 — including just about every member of the Canadiens’ blue line — is significantly worse off during their time with Montreal’s #17 compared to their season averages. The numbers are stark, often reaching double-digit percentage negative shifts, and Anderson’s on-ice presence has been particularly devastating to both high-danger chance generation and share.
Is this because of Anderson’s defensive drawbacks? The power forward has never been known as a defensive mastermind, but the bigger impact appears to be on the Canadiens’ ability to produce offensively. For example, when Caufield is on the ice at five-on-five, the Canadiens average 2.55 expected goals per 60 minutes. When Caufield and Anderson are together, that number drops to 1.75 — a decline, from Caufield’s perspective, of just over 30%. When looking at high-danger chances for, the drop is from 11.45 to 4.61 — just under an alarming 60%. These are the most striking examples, but the trend is fairly uniform across his teammates, whether forwards or defencemen.
Compared to this, Anderson’s below-average defending (an on-ice xGA/60 of 3.49 versus the team average of 3.01) feels like a small trifle.
It wasn’t always this way. For the last two years, most of Anderson’s on-ice metrics had been rigidly aligned to the team average. Even this year, his own individual underlying statistics haven’t deviated significantly from the norm. The winger is getting chances — he’s fourth on the team in individual expected goals — and is a noticeable presence when he’s on the ice. So why is the team suddenly playing terribly alongside him, and only alongside him?
One possibility is that, for whatever reason, Anderson is consuming all the oxygen available for the Habs’ attack. The winger personally accounts for a bigger proportion of on-ice xG and HDCF this year than years past. This would be a great thing if Anderson were generating more offence, but we know that this isn’t the case. Instead, the increased share stems from his teammates producing less. This would be an understandable thing if Anderson was playing with non-established NHL players, but again, we know that this isn’t the case, given that Anderson has played with the core pillars of the Canadiens for the next half-decade and beyond. Moreover, all of these players, from Suzuki to Juraj Slafkovský to Arber Xhekaj, are doing better away from him.
So what is going on? Why is Anderson personally accounting for a larger share of on-ice xG (44% to 34%), scoring chances (39% to 31%), and high-danger scoring chances (49% to 28%) than Caufield?
It could be that Anderson is unable to incorporate his teammates into the game. It could be that the forward is opting for a shoot-first mentality rather than looking for higher-percentage plays. It could be that Anderson is the weak link in the chain, and the only plays that get registered on the scoresheet are the ones that he can actually convert. It could even be that there is no one on this roster who can play with the winger.
The problem is that none of these possible explanations were a significant issue over the last two years, and it seems strange that they would magically crop up over the course of one off-season.
Perhaps the issue, as it always seems to be, is more complicated. Recall that Anderson’s most memorable moments — the style of play that earned him the moniker “Powerhorse” — relied on him galloping down a wing and taking a shot. Anderson’s preferred method of offence is to overwhelm an unbalanced opponent, take a high-percentage shot, and to yield the puck and wait for another opportunity to repeat the process if it doesn’t work.
This is not Martin St-Louis’s vision for this team. The coach is slowly moving the team toward the possession-centric offensive-zone pressure systems favoured by most of the league. For what it’s worth, the coach’s efforts here appear to be bearing fruit. The Canadiens have not had a team achieve xGF% parity over a season since the pandemic season of 2021. If we discount Anderson’s minutes, the team is actually within touching distance of that 50% threshold over the first quarter of the 2023-24 campaign. This would be a marked improvement from last season’s 41.7% and offer evidence that the team is changing for the better.
Maybe Anderson’s struggles, seemingly both ubiquitous and out of nowhere, are because he’s being left behind by a team that’s growing into new systems, new strategies, and new attitudes.
