For much of the last decade, Brendan Gallagher was dubbed the engine of the Montreal Canadiens. However, that engine has stalled in recent years, reaching a point where many view the forward as surplus to requirements — and his contract to be a long-term burden for the franchise. Is this simply the indefatigable march of time, or is there something more to Gallagher’s apparent decline? More importantly, for the time being, can the Canadiens still get more from their longest tenured player?
Through determination and tenacity, the diminutive fifth-round draft pick exceeded all expectations, cementing a position for himself at the top of the Habs lineup. But Gallagher’s personal trajectory has echoed that of the Canadiens as a team since 2021. Where the Edmonton native could once be counted on to perennially score at a 30-goal pace, the forward has managed just 23 goals in his last 141 games.
Curiously, Gallagher’s statistics show a player that is not dramatically different from his own career baselines. His current 16 points (eight goals and eight assists) puts him sixth on the team in scoring (fifth among forwards), although that may say more about the Canadiens than Gallagher. Moreover, the forward is taking as many shots and generating as many chances in the last three seasons as he did during his first three seasons as an NHLer. Of course, Gallagher is nowhere close to the lofty heights of 2018-21, but that is probably more due to the departures of Phillip Danault and Tomas Tatar than anything.
Despite the similarities in underlying stats, there is one massive outlier: points. Over the last three seasons, Gallagher has averaged 1.23, 1.63, and 1.25 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a far cry from the 2.88, 1.77, and 1.80 that he accrued during his first three campaigns.
There are two reasons for this disparity. First, while Gallagher has never been the greatest shooter, the gap between his expected goal tally and his actual goal tally has grown as his career has progressed. A younger Gallagher could push through these dry spells through sheer volume, but the older Gallagher has not enjoyed enough time either on the ice or in the lineup over the last three years to really do so.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, Gallagher’s point totals have declined not just in terms of goals, but also assists. As his presence on the scoresheet waned, Gallagher appears to have adopted an age-old adage: “keep it simple”. The problem is that keeping it simple in this case means putting his head down, going to the net, and looking for tips, rebounds, or deflections — which has turned Gallagher into a much more one-dimensional player than he was earlier in his career.
Gallagher may have been stereotypically known as someone who simply got to the blue paint, absorbed punishment, and scored garbage goals, but he was actually far more multifaceted than that. Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones tracking project shows him as one of the best offence generators in the league, a good-to-great playmaker, and a versatile player who could cycle, forecheck, rush, and shoot.
However, Sznajder’s tracking also notes declining playmaking starting in 2021-22, including precipitous drops in goal-generating categories such as chance assists, high-danger assists, and passes from the centre lane. While Gallagher remains in the top 10 percent of the league when it comes to generating shots and chances for himself, he is now in the bottom half — if not the bottom quarter — of the league when it comes to generating offence through other players.
It is interesting to note that Gallagher has particularly struggled alongside two players this season. The first, Josh Anderson, unfortunately comes as no surprise, as Anderson’s ability to dampen the offensive output of his linemates has been previously documented. The second, however, is Nick Suzuki.
Alongside Suzuki, Gallagher’s personal offensive production in terms of shots and chances drops, more or less, in half. In hindsight, this might not be that surprising. To play with Suzuki, one must integrate themselves within at least the three-man forward unit. A player simplifying their game in the way that Gallagher is attempting — that is, charging straight to the net — effectively disengages himself from the rest of the play.
The Gallagher of the past certainly deserved his reputation, but he was a player who arrived at the net-front alongside the puck, rather than a player who was simply stapled there waiting for the puck to come to him. To that end, the Gallagher of 2021 elevated offensive production from all parts of the offensive zone. The Gallagher of 2024 only elevates offensive production in his office.
It is clear that Gallagher, playing the way he is, is no longer a jack-of-all-trades that can be shuffled up and down the lineup as needed to fill gaps. But, it is just as clear that Gallagher is not finished as a player, and can still bring positive value to the Canadiens.
But where do you put him?
- If Anderson as a linemate is out
- If Suzuki as a linemate is out
- If a defensive specialist like Jake Evans or Christian Dvorak is out (because Gallagher is not a great defensive zone player)
— who does that leave?
The best answer is probably Sean Monahan. But Monahan has a good thing going right now with Juraj Slafkovský and Joel Armia — and may not even be here in six months. Given all of that, the Canadiens probably need to focus less on who can get Gallagher going, and more on trying to convince Gallagher to play to the strengths of his linemates rather than simply ramping up his own effort level alongside them.
