2023 NHL Draft prospect profile: Connor Bedard will become an NHL team’s franchise player

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For the last few years, the lead-up to the NHL Draft hasn’t been dominated by a prospect guaranteed to be a superstar. After Rasmus Dahlin was selected by the Buffalo Sabres in 2018, there was debate about Jack Hughes’s ability to be an elite player in the NHL and Kaapo Kakko was in the first overall conversation. Alexis Lafrenière was the consensus top option in 2020, but even then he was seen as more of a complementary offensive player. Owen Power didn’t play in the NHL the season after he was drafted by Buffalo, and last year the feeling was that Shane Wright could become a second-line centre in the league, a projection that was good enough for him to hold the top spot before the interview process ahead of the draft.

There have been stars emerge from those drafts despite the initial uncertainty. Hughes has turned into a great offensive player with the New Jersey Devils, and while Lafrenière may not look like a star in the making, Tim Stützle, selected two spots behind him, is taking on that status. But no player dropped directly into an NHL lineup and immediately boosted that team to a competitive level.

The 2023 Draft will have such a player. There has been a lot of hype around Connor Bedard for years now, and that hasn’t gotten any quieter in the time leading up to his selection. That is despite this class being regarded as one of the best in recent memory, with a handful of players who likely would have gone first in some of the recent years discussed. There are several prospects who could become the best player on an NHL team, and Bedard still stands alone at the top.

Birthplace: North Vancouver, British Columbia
Date of birth: July 17, 2005
Shoots: Right
Position: Centre
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 185 lbs.
Team: Regina Pats (WHL)

Ahead of the 2023 World Junior Hockey Championship, there was an attempt to cast some doubt on his consensus status. Maybe Sweden’s Leo Carlsson could make the next few months of prospect coverage interesting by carrying his country to gold. Or Bedard’s teammate Adam Fantilli could outperform his peer over the short tournament to elevate his status.

Right out of the gate, it was clear that no one was going to challenge Bedard. He started the WJC with one goal from 11 shots on net, foreshadowing what was to come. The next game he had a hat trick and seven points, following that up with a six-point effort. After four assists versus Carlsson’s Team Sweden, he took a close quarter-final versus Slovakia into his own hands by deking around all three opposing skaters on the ice for the goal in overtime. At the end of the seven-game event, he had nine goals, 14 assists, a gold medal, and several accolades, including tournament MVP.

The performance inspired him to even greater things when he returned to the WHL. He didn’t have a stellar supporting cast around him with the Regina Pats, but he dragged to club to a 34-30-4 record to make the post-season. He led his closest teamate by nearly 60 points at the end of the regular season, with 143 to Alexander Suzdalev’s 86, recording both the most goals (71) and assists (72). Regina didn’t get beyond the first round, despite 10 goals and 10 assists from Bedard in the seven-game series, which still stands as the ninth-highest mark as the post-season approaches its final round.

It won’t take long into any viewing of him to see how he registers so many goals. His shot is powerful, accurate, and lightning quick, giving goaltenders little chance to react. With the limited time he needs to go from carrying the puck to shooting it, defenders don’t have time to get in the way of the puck. Bedard launched 360 shots on target during the regular season, the most in the WHL, and still had a shooting percentage just under 20%.

It doesn’t help those defenders that Bedard is also a fast skater, and an agile one who can change direction in a hurry to shake his coverage. A quick shift in one-on-one situations can be all he needs to change the angle enough to get a shot through the attempted block.

His passing is also at a high level, where the quickness of the puck getting off his stick can fool defenders, especially when they need to prepare for a shot attempt. There were better playmakers in the WHL this season, and a few others available in this draft, but none bring the same package of passing and finishing.

Much of Bedard’s success comes from the confidence to try things. His one-on-three overtime goal is just one instance of him creating something from a low-percentage situation. One of the lasting impressions from the World Juniors wasn’t a goal or an assist, but an offensive-zone pass on which he turned his stick over, dove past the defending player who was going to get the puck first, and sent it across the ice to linemate Logan Stankoven with the toe of his stick blade. He was certain he could execute the play he decided to make on the fly.

Often when you’re dealing with a speedy forward who gets points from rush plays with his skills, that player’s game suffers when their pace in neutralized on in-zone plays. Bedard is not only good in both versions of an offensive attack, but ranked as the best in each among North American Junior prospects this year.

Bedard already has a fairly robust build for his size, weighing in at 185 pounds on a 5’10” frame, and he is comfortable with the physical elements of the sport. You can’t just play him hard to get him off his game because he’s accustomed to that type of play, and initiates contact on his own at times. He can use his body to shield the puck along the boards, then engage his quickness to spin out of coverage for an offensive play.

Preliminary Rankings

Dobber Prospects: #1
Elite Prospects: #1
FCHockey: #1
Hockey Prospect: #1
Hadi Kalakeche: #1
McKeen’s: #1
Bob McKenzie (TSN): #1
NHL Central Scouting: #1 (North American skaters)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic) #1
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): #1

The consensus top prospect for the 2023 Draft, Bedard is going to step into an NHL lineup in October and instantly make that team considerably better (and not just because his options are limited to the worst teams in the league). Whether he joins a club that has a few scoring options or the odd playmaker, he’ll have a chance to develop some form of chemistry with new teammates.

The only real questions are about his defensive play, the one area he doesn’t score highly in the tracked stats. Even that is an area he has some aptitude in, getting short-handed time in Regina and responding with five goals, the third-highest mark in the WHL. He did lead Regina in both the regular and post-season in plus/minus, so whatever issues he has aren’t impacting his team in a negative way. The speed, physicality, and exceptional stick skills will serve him well as he grows his defensive game in an NHL environment.

Lottery teams are spoiled for choice in this year’s draft, with several players who are going to become household names over the next few years. All of the top seven or eight franchises will be extremely happy with the player they end up with, but they’re all dreaming of the future of their team with Connor Bedard.

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