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EOTP’s 2023 Consensus NHL Draft Rankings

Posted on by Jared Book
Anton Rasegård

The 2023 NHL Entry Draft begins on Wednesday, and EOTP has been keeping track of most of the rankings to come out ahead of the draft.

Some rankings have more correlation to how the draft will unfold than others, and no rankings are perfect so we combined 16 of the most respected draft rankings and used a modified average of them to get our own rankings.

This is our eighth year doing this. Last year out of the 154 ranked players, 130 (84.4%) were drafted. Only four of the top 100 players were not drafted.

History of EOTP’s Consensus Draft Rankings

YEAR PLAYERS CORRELATION DRAFTED % 217 DRAFTED %
2016 106 0.7924 94.34 N/A
2017 315 0.7674 80.18 67.28
2018 264 0.7594 81.11 72.35
2019 140 0.8269 92.86 N/A
2020 257 0.7365 81.11 73.73
2021 163 0.7739 84.66 N/A
2022 154 0.7924 84.42 N/A

Previous Rankings:
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

The correlation of the rankings compared to draft position in 2022 was 0.7924.

The sources used:
Bob McKenzie (TSN, ranked 96 plus 14 honourable mentions)
Craig Button (TSN, ranked 100)
HockeyProspect (ranked 112)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic, ranked 142)
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic, ranked 100)
Future Considerations (ranked 300)
Chris Peters (FloHockey, ranked 100)
EliteProspects (ranked 136)
Hadi Kalakeche’s rankings (ranked 100)
Smaht Scouting (ranked 128)
Sportsnet (Jason Bukala’s rankings, ranked 80)
Steven Ellis (Daily Faceoff, ranked 150)
McKeensHockey.com (ranked 224)
The Hockey News (Ryan Kennedy’s online rankings, ranked 120)
Draft Prospects (ranked 240)
Dobber Prospects (ranked 100)

All of these rankings did not rank the same number of players. And not every player was ranked by each source. This offers a challenge to normalize the rankings.

To make things truly representative, players who were not ranked by a system were given the last ranking of the source+10. This ensured that a player not ranked did not benefit more than a player ranked low. Rankings with over 200 players ranked only received a bump of source+5.

As an example, Bob McKenzie ranked 96 players with 14 honourable mentions. Those not ranked by McKenzie but mentioned as honourable mentions received a rank of 110. Those not mentioned at all received a ranking of 120. HockeyProspect ranked 112 players. Those not ranked were given 122, and so on.

In 2019, we eliminated the top two and bottom two scores from the average. This improved the results dramatically from other years. We returned to this method for the 2021 and 2022 rankings, and continue for 2023.

The “Drop” column shows the difference in average between the person immediately above them in the rankings. This is useful to create groups of similarly ranked players.

You will see the averages get close together as you approach the bottom. That is because many of those players were not ranked by several sources, meaning the averages tended to be more equal. This also represents how close players are once you get to a certain point in the draft.

The “Range” column shows the difference between the player’s highest ranking and their lowest one. As an example, Connor Bedard has a range of ‘0’ because he was ranked first by every source. Adam Fantilli has a range of ‘1’ because he was ranked second or third by every source. Note that this uses the raw data before the top and bottom scores are removed.

Connor Bedard is the fourth unanimous #1 in these rankings, joining Auston Matthews, Rasmus Dahlin, and Alexis Lafrenière.

The highest variance in the first 32 prospects is Gracyn Sawchin with a range of 103. This the highest range of anyone with a first round grade since we started this project. The biggest average drop off in the draft happens between the 28th-ranked Daniil But and the 29th-ranked Ethan Gauthier.

The “Best” column is pretty self explanatory: it is the player’s best ranking.

Below are the 140 ranked players. In order to qualify for the rankings, players needed to be included in at least six of the 16 sources (since we took away the top and bottom two scores, we wanted to make sure players were guaranteed to be using at least two of their own rankings). An exception was made for players who had five rankings and were an honourable mention in Bob McKenzie’s rankings. This affected only one player: 125th-ranked Jakub Stancl.

Please note that all names, measurements, and positions are from Elite Prospects at mid-season.

2023 Draft Rankings

RK NAME POS HT WT DOB S LEAGUE AVG DROP RANGE BEST
1 CONNOR BEDARD C 5’10” 185 2005-07-17 R WHL 1.00 NA 0 1
2 ADAM FANTILLI C 6’2″ 187 2004-10-12 L NCAA 2.00 1.00 1 2
3 LEO CARLSSON C/W 6’3″ 194 2004-12-26 L SHL 3.46 1.46 2 2
4 MATVEI MICHKOV RW 5’10” 148 2004-12-09 L KHL 3.54 0.08 3 2
5 WILL SMITH C 6’0″ 172 2005-03-17 R USDP 5.38 1.85 4 4
6 ZACH BENSON F 5’10” 159 2005-05-12 L WHL 7.08 1.69 12 5
7 RYAN LEONARD C 5’11” 181 2005-01-21 R USDP 8.69 1.62 17 5
8 DALIBOR DVORSKÝ C 6’1″ 201 2005-06-15 L ALLSVENSKAN 10.31 1.62 15 6
9 OLIVER MOORE C 5’11” 176 2005-01-22 L USDP 10.62 0.31 19 6
10 AXEL SANDIN PELLIKKA D 5’11” 181 2005-03-11 R SHL 12.00 1.38 21 5
11 DAVID REINBACHER D 6’2″ 187 2004-10-25 R NL 12.54 0.54 17 6
12 MATTHEW WOOD F 6’3″ 190 2005-02-06 R NCAA 15.77 3.23 30 7
13 COLBY BARLOW LW 6’1″ 187 2005-02-14 L OHL 16.23 0.46 27 6
14 GABE PERREAULT RW 5’11” 165 2005-05-07 L USDP 16.46 0.23 20 7
15 DMITRI SIMASHEV D 6’4″ 201 2005-02-04 L KHL 17.23 0.77 33 5
16 NATE DANIELSON C 6’1″ 185 2004-09-27 R WHL 18.62 1.38 24 7
17 EDUARD SALE RW 6’1″ 168 2005-03-10 L CZECHIA 19.85 1.23 25 7
18 SAMUEL HONZEK C 6’4″ 185 2004-11-12 L WHL 20.15 0.31 32 12
19 BRAYDEN YAGER C 6’0″ 165 2005-01-03 R WHL 20.54 0.38 23 10
20 TOM WILLANDER D 6’1″ 179 2005-02-09 R J20 NATIONELL 20.62 0.08 29 8
21 ANDREW CRISTALL LW 5’10” 165 2005-02-04 L WHL 21.23 0.62 57 11
22 QUENTIN MUSTY LW 6’2″ 205 2005-07-06 L OHL 21.31 0.08 36 11
23 CALUM RITCHIE C 6’2″ 187 2005-01-21 R OHL 21.46 0.15 26 13
24 OTTO STENBERG C/W 5’11” 181 2005-05-29 L J20 NATIONELL 21.69 0.23 24 12
25 GAVIN BRINDLEY RW 5’9″ 157 2004-10-05 R NCAA 22.85 1.15 42 9
26 MIKHAIL GULYAYEV D 5’10” 170 2005-04-26 L MHL 25.38 2.54 30 13
27 RILEY HEIDT F 5’11” 179 2005-03-25 L WHL 26.54 1.15 50 15
28 DANIIL BUT LW 6’5″ 203 2005-02-15 R MHL 26.77 0.23 41 7
29 ETHAN GAUTHIER RW 5’11” 176 2005-01-26 R QMJHL 32.85 6.08 77 17
30 BRADLY NADEAU C 5’10” 163 2005-05-05 R BCHL 35.08 2.23 25 21
31 GRACYN SAWCHYN C 5’11” 165 2005-01-19 R WHL 36.46 1.38 103 13
32 DAVID EDSTROM C 6’3″ 187 2005-02-18 L J20 NATIONELL 37.54 1.08 45 18
33 OLIVER BONK D 6’1″ 176 2005-01-09 R OHL 38.15 0.62 70 16
34 JAYDEN PERRON F 5’8″ 157 2005-01-11 R USHL 39.23 1.08 95 12
35 OSCAR FISKER MØLGAARD F 6’0″ 163 2005-02-18 L SHL 39.46 0.23 56 23
36 LUKAS DRAGICEVIC D 6’2″ 181 2005-04-25 R WHL 39.77 0.31 40 20
37 TANNER MOLENDYK D 5’11” 176 2005-02-03 L WHL 40.38 0.62 43 25
38 MICHAEL HRABAL G 6’6″ 209 2005-01-20 L USHL 41.62 1.23 37 24
39 KASPER HALTTUNEN RW 6’3″ 207 2005-06-07 R LIIGA 41.77 0.15 41 23
40 NICK LARDIS RW 5’10” 154 2005-07-08 L OHL 44.08 2.31 64 30
41 ANTON WAHLBERG C 6’3″ 185 2005-07-04 L J20 NATIONELL 46.15 2.08 68 28
42 KOEHN ZIEMMER RW 6’0″ 194 2004-12-08 R WHL 47.54 1.38 44 31
43 CHARLIE STRAMEL F 6’3″ 216 2004-10-15 R NCAA 47.62 0.08 45 23
44 TREY AUGUSTINE G 6’1″ 179 2005-02-23 L USDP 48.15 0.54 44 33
45 THEO LINDSTEIN D 6’0″ 181 2005-01-05 L SHL 50.54 2.38 56 24
46 CADEN PRICE D 6’1″ 181 2005-08-24 L WHL 51.69 1.15 52 28
47 ÉTIENNE MORIN D 6’0″ 183 2005-03-09 L QMJHL 51.69 0.00 79 32
48 WILLIAM WHITELAW C 5’9″ 172 2005-02-05 R USHL 52.23 0.54 89 23
49 BEAU AKEY D 6’0″ 170 2005-02-11 R OHL 52.46 0.23 62 32
50 LUCA CAGNONI D 5’10” 172 2004-12-21 L WHL 53.08 0.62 93 17
51 CARSON REHKOPF C/LW 6’1″ 194 2005-01-07 L OHL 55.15 2.08 46 36
52 HUNTER BRZUSTEWICZ D 6’0″ 187 2004-11-29 R OHL 56.00 0.85 59 32
53 DANNY NELSON F 6’3″ 203 2005-08-03 L USDP 56.23 0.23 82 28
54 ARAM MINNETIAN D 6’0″ 170 2005-03-19 R USDP 57.46 1.23 67 43
55 MAXIM STRBAK D 6’2″ 198 2005-04-13 R USHL 58.15 0.69 77 33
56 KALAN LIND F 6’0″ 154 2005-01-25 L WHL 60.08 1.92 66 44
57 CARSON BJARNASON G 6’3″ 181 2005-06-30 L WHL 60.23 0.15 85 24
58 LENNI HÄMEENAHO F 6’0″ 174 2004-11-07 R LIIGA 60.54 0.31 53 31
59 MATHIEU CATAFORD RW 5’11” 187 2005-03-01 R QMJHL 62.08 1.54 71 39
60 LUCA PINELLI C 5’9″ 161 2005-04-05 L OHL 63.46 1.38 85 37
61 JAKUB DVORAK D 6’5″ 203 2005-05-25 L CZECHIA 64.23 0.77 54 43
62 ALEX CIERNIK LW/RW 5’10” 179 2004-10-08 L J20 NATIONELL 65.77 1.54 86 19
63 AYDAR SUNIEV LW 6’2″ 205 2004-11-16 L BCHL 67.00 1.23 81 31
64 ROMAN KANTSEROV F 5’9″ 176 2004-09-20 L MHL 67.00 0.00 64 32
65 DENVER BARKEY C 5’8″ 174 2005-04-27 L OHL 68.15 1.15 65 36
66 COULSON PITRE C 6’1″ 172 2004-12-13 R OHL 68.46 0.31 60 50
67 FELIX NILSSON C/W 6’0″ 174 2005-06-22 L J20 NATIONELL 68.92 0.46 76 41
68 NICO MYATOVIC F 6’2″ 181 2004-12-01 L WHL 69.38 0.46 68 44
69 ANDREW STRATHMANN D 5’11” 174 2005-02-27 L USHL 70.77 1.38 75 47
70 EASTON COWAN C 5’10” 170 2005-05-20 L OHL 71.46 0.69 89 29
71 JACOB FOWLER G 6’2″ 201 2004-11-24 L USHL 71.69 0.23 65 45
72 CAMERON ALLEN D 5’11” 190 2005-01-07 R OHL 73.38 1.69 66 44
73 NOAH DOWER NILSSON C 6’0″ 183 2005-04-25 L J20 NATIONELL 75.38 2.00 82 41
74 ADAM GAJAN G 6’4″ 176 2004-05-06 L USHL 75.92 0.54 76 34
75 ANDREW GIBSON D 6’3″ 190 2005-02-13 R OHL 76.31 0.38 69 46
76 JESSE KIISKINEN RW 6’0″ 187 2005-08-23 R U20 SM-SARJA 77.54 1.23 197 48
77 CAREY TERRANCE C 6’1″ 174 2005-05-10 L OHL 78.31 0.77 79 49
78 ALEXANDER RYKOV RW 5’11” 170 2005-07-14 L VHL 79.77 1.46 196 28
79 FELIX UNGER SÖRUM F 5’11” 172 2005-09-14 R J20 NATIONELL 80.00 0.23 93 37
80 JURAJ PEKARCIK LW/C 6’2″ 183 2005-09-12 L SLOVAKIA 81.38 1.38 113 39
81 TIMUR MUKHANOV C 5’8″ 170 2005-06-17 R MHL 83.38 2.00 130 22
82 MARTIN MISIAK C 6’2″ 198 2004-09-30 L SLOVAKIA 83.92 0.54 95 35
83 QUINTON BURNS D 6’1″ 179 2005-04-14 L OHL 84.62 0.69 82 40
84 NOEL NORDH LW/RW 6’2″ 194 2005-01-25 L J20 NATIONELL 87.00 2.38 119 42
85 MATTHEW MANIA D 6’0″ 187 2005-01-11 R OHL 87.38 0.38 92 46
86 TRISTAN BERTUCCI D 6’2″ 179 2005-07-12 L OHL 88.62 1.23 88 58
87 SCOTT RATZLAFF G 6’1″ 172 2005-03-09 L WHL 91.92 3.31 77 69
88 GAVIN MCCARTHY D 6’1″ 181 2005-06-02 R USHL 93.00 1.08 257 48
89 RASMUS KUMPULAINEN F 6’2″ 196 2005-08-08 L U20 SM-SARJA 95.00 2.00 56 62
90 CARTER SOTHERAN D 6’3″ 185 2005-06-26 R WHL 95.08 0.08 103 55
91 ARTTU KÄRKI D 6’2″ 176 2004-12-08 L U20 SM-SARJA 97.62 2.54 120 41
92 AIDEN FINK RW 5’9″ 152 2004-11-24 R AJHL 97.77 0.15 62 70
93 ETHAN MIEDEMA LW 6’3″ 181 2005-03-22 L OHL 100.38 2.62 97 64
94 EMIL JÄRVENTIE F 5’10” 168 2005-04-04 L U20 SM-SARJA 100.54 0.15 84 62
95 DYLAN MACKINNON D 6’2″ 187 2005-01-12 R QMJHL 100.85 0.31 68 60
96 TYLER PEDDLE C/LW 6’1″ 190 2005-01-28 L QMJHL 100.92 0.08 74 63
97 JESSE NURMI LW 5’11” 165 2005-03-07 L U20 SM-SARJA 101.08 0.15 68 78
98 JORDAN TOURIGNY D 5’11” 168 2005-02-28 R QMJHL 103.08 2.00 96 56
99 HOYT STANLEY D 6’2″ 196 2005-02-04 R BCHL 104.15 1.08 181 64
100 ALBERT WIKMAN D 6’1″ 194 2005-03-10 L J20 NATIONELL 104.31 0.15 176 69
101 TUOMAS URONEN F 6’0″ 187 2005-03-19 R U20 SM-SARJA 104.38 0.08 156 73
102 ONDREJ MOLNÁR LW 6’0″ 176 2005-02-08 L OHL 104.62 0.23 88 64
103 JAYSON SHAUGABAY C 5’9″ 154 2005-04-05 R USHL 105.38 0.77 94 58
104 BRADY CLEVELAND D 6’4″ 201 2005-04-01 L USDP 105.38 0.00 189 68
105 ZEB FORSFJÄLL C 5’9″ 168 2005-01-16 L J20 NATIONELL 106.77 1.38 64 77
106 JOSEPH WILLIS C 5’10” 165 2005-03-14 L OHL 108.00 1.23 205 49
107 JADEN LIPINSKI F 6’3″ 198 2004-12-02 R WHL 108.15 0.15 128 61
108 CONNOR LEVIS C 6’2″ 194 2004-10-05 R WHL 108.31 0.15 151 63
109 MATTHEW SOTO RW 5’11” 168 2005-08-31 R OHL 108.85 0.54 101 55
110 ZACHARY NEHRING RW 6’3″ 179 2005-03-07 R USHS-PREP 108.92 0.08 225 80
111 ALEX PHARAND RW/C 6’3″ 201 2005-01-05 R OHL 109.38 0.46 66 74
112 DAMIAN CLARA G 6’6″ 207 2005-01-13 L J20 NATIONELL 109.69 0.31 247 44
113 BECKETT HENDRICKSON LW 6’1″ 168 2005-06-24 L USDP 110.62 0.92 117 58
114 TANNER LUDTKE F 6’0″ 185 2004-11-27 L USHL 111.31 0.69 85 69
115 FRANCESCO DELL’ELCE D 6’0″ 157 2005-06-23 L CAHS 111.92 0.62 217 88
116 DREW FORTESCUE D 6’3″ 170 2005-04-28 L USDP 112.38 0.46 227 78
117 ANDREI LOSHKO RW 6’1″ 170 2004-10-07 L QMJHL 112.77 0.38 129 89
118 YEGOR KLIMOVICH F 5’9” 159 2005-05-14 L MHL 112.85 0.08 147 53
119 LUKE COUGHLIN D 5’10” 172 2005-04-11 L QMJHL 112.85 0.00 119 83
120 COLE KNUBLE RW 5’10” 183 2004-07-01 R USHL 114.08 1.23 228 77
121 BRANDON SVOBODA C 6’2″ 190 2005-02-04 R USHL 114.92 0.85 76 79
122 GRIFFIN ERDMAN F 5’10” 174 2005-02-10 L USHL 115.85 0.92 157 72
123 LUKE MITTELSTADT D 5’11” 174 2003-01-22 L NCAA 116.46 0.62 108 91
124 EMIL PIENINIEMI D 6’2″ 170 2005-03-02 L U20 SM-SARJA 116.62 0.15 127 64
125 JAKUB STANCL LW 6’3″ 201 2005-04-10 L J20 NATIONELL 117.23 -4.77 71 81
126 HUDSON MALINOSKI C 6’1″ 174 2004-05-19 L AJHL 117.77 0.54 141 96
127 JAN SPRYNAR RW 6’1″ 176 2005-02-26 R QMJHL 117.85 0.08 162 57
128 YEGOR SIDOROV F 6’0″ 176 2004-06-18 L WHL 118.62 0.77 93 77
129 RYAN FINE F 5’9″ 183 2005-03-14 R USDP 118.77 0.15 151 78
130 YEGOR ZAVRAGIN G 6’2″ 183 2005-08-23 L MHL 119.15 0.38 86 66
131 GAVYN THORESON F 5’8” 183 2004-10-30 L USHS-MN 119.31 0.15 132 80
132 BRAD GARDINER C 6’1″ 174 2005-03-06 R OHL 119.77 0.46 116 47
133 CARSEN MUSSER G 6’4″ 214 2005-05-19 L USDP 119.85 0.08 66 85
134 PAUL FISCHER D 6’0″ 183 2005-01-30 L USDP 120.46 0.62 113 74
135 COLE BROWN RW 6’3″ 170 2005-04-27 L OHL 120.54 0.08 114 111
136 TANNER ADAMS RW/C 5’11” 183 2005-09-02 R USHL 120.92 0.38 134 70
137 PETTER VESTERHEIM C/W 5’11” 165 2004-09-30 L J20 NATIONELL 121.46 0.54 163 82
138 ARVID BERGSTRÖM D 5’11” 163 2005-06-12 L J20 NATIONELL 121.92 0.46 172 57
139 TOMAS SUCHANEK G 6’2″ 181 2003-04-30 L WHL 122.00 0.08 115 103
140 JONATHAN CASTAGNA C 6’2″ 185 2005-04-20 L CAHS 122.69 0.69 215 100

In the case of a tie in the average, the first tie breaker is the player with the best individual ranking, and the second tie breaker is the highest worst ranking (lowest range).

The Montreal Canadiens have, for the moment, picks 5, 31, 37, 69, 101, 110, 128, 133, 144, 165, and 197.

For more information on prospects, be sure to check out our prospect profiles here.

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