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EOTP’s 2019 Consensus NHL Draft Rankings

Posted on by Jared Book

The NHL Entry Draft begins on Friday, and EOTP has been keeping track of most of the rankings to come out ahead of the draft.

Some rankings have more correlation to how the draft will unfold than others, and no rankings are perfect so we combined 14 of the most respected draft rankings and used the average of them to get our own rankings.

This is our third year doing this. Last year out of the top 150, 126 were drafted (84.0 up from 80.1% in 2017). Out of the top 100, 96 were drafted. Only #87 Luka Burzan, #93 Vladislav Kotkov, #94 Kyle Topping, and #96 Nathan Dunkley were not drafted. Kotkov since signed with the San Jose Sharks.

Previous Rankings:
2017
2018

The correlation of the rankings (217 players ranked) to actual draft position was 0.72. This year, there are a few things done to improve that.

The sources used:
Bob McKenzie (TSN, ranked 93)
Craig Button (TSN, ranked 93)
HockeyProspect.com (ranked 108 skaters)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic, ranked 107 skaters)
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic, ranked 100)
FutureConsiderations.ca (ranked 300)
Chris Peter (ESPN, ranked 100)
Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects, ranked 166)
EliteProspects.com (ranked 93 skaters)
Next Gen Hockey (ranked 100)
Will Scouching (ranked 111)
McKeensHockey.com (ranked 217)
The Hockey News (Ryan Kennedy rankings, not magazine, ranked 120)
DraftBuzz Hockey (ranked 100)

All of these rankings did not rank the same number of players. And not every player was ranked by each source. This offered a challenge to normalize the rankings.

To make things truly representative, players who were not ranked by a system were given the last ranking of the source+10. This ensured that a player not ranked did not benefit more than a player ranked low.

As an example, Bob McKenzie ranked 93 players. Those not ranked by McKenzie received a ranking of 103. HockeyProspect ranked 108 skaters. Those not ranked were given 118, and so on.

In order to improve the accuracy of the rankings and account for outliers, we have changed the methodology this year. The top two and bottom two scores a prospect receives will not be used, so rankings are done on a maximum of 10 scores. In order to account for this, players with less than five rankings are omitted from the rankings.

Four sources (Corey Pronman, Hockey Prospect, Elite Prospects, and Will Scouching) ranked goaltenders separately. Those separate rankings were not used in the average. Because there are less sources, goaltenders only have the top one and bottom one score removed, and goaltenders needed to be ranked by three sources to be officially ranked.

The “Drop Off” column shows the difference in average between the person immediately above them in the rankings. This is useful to create groups of similarly ranked players.

You will see the averages get close together as you approach the bottom. That is because many of those players were not ranked by several sources, meaning the averages tended to be more equal. This also represents how close players are.

The “Variance” column shows the difference between the player’s highest ranking and their lowest one. As an example, Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko have scores of ‘1’ since their rankings were all 1 or 2. The highest Variance in the first 31 prospects is Pavel Dorofeyev with a difference of 67. These are the raw totals, not taking into account which rankings are counted or not.

The 15th ranked player is Moritz Seider right now. However, players are quite close throughout the first round.

The draft has several significant drop offs. There is separation after the top four, and Alex Newhook in 12th has a big gap ahead and behind him. Other significant drop offs occur after 27th, 33rd, 40, and 45.

The draft still has a lot of depth well into the third round and even some third round prospects have first round grades among them. The most intriguing prospect may be Alex Vlasic. He is ranked 50th, but has as many first round grades as services that did not have him ranked (three each).

Below are the 140 ranked players who qualified.

The Montreal Canadiens have, for the moment, picks 15, 46, 50, 77, 108, 131, 136, 138, 170, and 206.

For more information on prospects, be sure to check out our prospect profiles here.

2019 EOTP Consensus Rankings

RK NAME HT WT POSITION TEAM LEAGUE AVG DROP OFF VARIANCE
1 HUGHES, JACK 5′ 10″ 170 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 1.00 NA 1
2 KAKKO, KAAPO 6′ 2″ 194 RIGHT WING TPS FINLAND 2.00 1.00 1
3 BYRAM, BOWEN 6′ 0″ 193 DEFENSEMAN VANCOUVER WHL 3.50 1.50 4
4 TURCOTTE, ALEX 5′ 11″ 185 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 3.60 0.10 7
5 ZEGRAS, TREVOR 6′ 0″ 169 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 6.90 3.30 9
6 DACH, KIRBY 6′ 4″ 197 CENTER SASKATOON WHL 7.10 0.20 8
7 COZENS, DYLAN 6′ 3″ 180 CENTER LETHBRIDGE WHL 7.90 0.80 10
8 KREBS, PEYTON 5′ 11″ 180 CENTER KOOTENAY WHL 8.10 0.20 7
9 PODKOLZIN, VASILY 6′ 1″ 190 RIGHT WING NEVA ST. PETERSBURG RUSSIA-2 8.20 0.10 13
10 CAUFIELD, COLE 5′ 7″ 162 RIGHT WING USA U-18 NTDP 9.30 1.10 9
11 BOLDY, MATTHEW 6′ 2″ 192 LEFT WING USA U-18 NTDP 9.60 0.30 7
12 NEWHOOK, ALEX 5′ 10″ 195 CENTER VICTORIA BCHL 12.60 3.00 12
13 YORK, CAMERON 5′ 11″ 175 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 15.70 3.10 13
14 BROBERG, PHILIP 6′ 3″ 199 DEFENSEMAN AIK SWEDEN-2 16.20 0.50 22
15 SEIDER, MORITZ 6′ 4″ 183 DEFENSEMAN MANNHEIM GERMANY 17.00 0.80 25
16 SODERSTROM, VICTOR 5′ 11″ 179 DEFENSEMAN BRYNAS SWEDEN 17.10 0.10 18
17 KALIYEV, ARTHUR 6′ 2″ 190 RIGHT WING HAMILTON OHL 18.20 1.10 23
18 HARLEY, THOMAS 6′ 3″ 188 DEFENSEMAN MISSISSAUGA OHL 19.50 1.30 18
19 TOMASINO, PHILIP 6′ 0″ 179 CENTER NIAGARA OHL 20.90 1.40 19
20 SUZUKI, RYAN 6′ 0″ 176 CENTER BARRIE OHL 21.50 0.60 15
21 LAVOIE, RAPHAEL 6′ 4″ 196 CENTER HALIFAX QMJHL 21.90 0.40 20
22 BRINK, BOBBY 5′ 8″ 159 RIGHT WING SIOUX CITY USHL 22.90 1.00 23
23 HEINOLA, VILLE 5′ 11″ 178 DEFENSEMAN LUKKO FINLAND 23.10 0.20 21
24 KNIGHT, SPENCER 6′ 3″ 192 GOALIE USA U-18 NTDP 23.88 0.77 33
25 HOGLANDER, NILS 5′ 9″ 185 LEFT WING ROGLE SWEDEN 25.20 1.33 43
26 POULIN, SAMUEL 6′ 1″ 208 RIGHT WING SHERBROOKE QMJHL 27.40 2.20 30
27 MCMICHAEL, CONNOR 5′ 11″ 174 CENTER LONDON OHL 30.60 3.20 30
28 ROBERTSON, NICHOLAS 5′ 9″ 160 LEFT WING PETERBOROUGH OHL 30.90 0.30 29
29 DOROFEYEV, PAVEL 6′ 1″ 167 LEFT WING MAGNITOGORSK RUSSIA 31.30 0.40 67
30 PELLETIER, JAKOB 5′ 9″ 160 LEFT WING MONCTON QMJHL 31.30 0.00 23
31 ROBERTSON, MATTHEW 6′ 3″ 201 DEFENSEMAN EDMONTON WHL 31.40 0.10 33
32 BJORNFOT, TOBIAS 6′ 0″ 202 DEFENSEMAN DJURGARDEN JR. SWEDEN-JR. 31.90 0.50 47
33 JOHNSON, RYAN 6′ 0″ 173 DEFENSEMAN SIOUX FALLS USHL 35.30 3.40 39
34 LEASON, BRETT 6′ 4″ 200 RIGHT WING PRINCE ALBERT WHL 35.90 0.60 24
35 THOMSON, LASSI 6′ 0″ 190 DEFENSEMAN KELOWNA WHL 37.40 1.50 35
36 BEECHER, JOHN 6′ 3″ 210 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 39.40 2.00 68
37 AFANASYEV, EGOR 6′ 4″ 201 LEFT WING MUSKEGON USHL 39.50 0.10 41
38 REES, JAMIESON 5′ 10″ 172 CENTER SARNIA OHL 40.10 0.60 25
39 KOLYACHONOK, VLADISLAV 6′ 1″ 184 DEFENSEMAN FLINT OHL 40.30 0.20 41
40 HOLMSTROM, SIMON 6′ 1″ 183 RIGHT WING HV 71 JR. SWEDEN-JR. 40.40 0.10 48
41 GREWE, ALBIN 5′ 10″ 187 RIGHT WING DJURGARDEN JR. SWEDEN-JR. 44.30 3.90 63
42 MASTROSIMONE, ROBERT 5′ 10″ 158 LEFT WING CHICAGO USHL 44.90 0.60 67
43 PUISTOLA, PATRIK 6′ 0″ 174 RIGHT WING TAPPARA JR. FINLAND-JR. 45.00 0.10 67
44 TRACEY, BRAYDEN 6′ 0″ 177 LEFT WING MOOSE JAW WHL 45.10 0.10 37
45 PINTO, SHANE 6′ 2″ 192 CENTER TRI-CITY USHL 51.50 6.40 68
46 LEGARE, NATHAN 6′ 0″ 205 RIGHT WING BAIE-COMEAU QMJHL 52.50 1.00 56
47 NIKOLAEV, ILYA 6′ 0″ 190 CENTER YAROSLAVL 2 RUSSIA-JR. 54.20 1.70 71
48 FOOTE, NOLAN 6′ 3″ 190 LEFT WING KELOWNA WHL 55.10 0.90 53
49 FAGEMO, SAMUEL 6′ 0″ 194 LEFT WING FROLUNDA SWEDEN 55.80 0.70 76
50 VLASIC, ALEX 6′ 6″ 199 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 56.40 0.60 97
51 KORCZAK, KAEDAN 6′ 2″ 192 DEFENSEMAN KELOWNA WHL 58.80 2.40 49
52 HONKA, ANTTONI 5′ 10″ 179 DEFENSEMAN JUKURIT FINLAND 61.20 2.40 84
53 FIRSTOV, VLADISLAV 6′ 1″ 181 LEFT WING WATERLOO USHL 62.50 1.30 37
54 KOKKONEN, MIKKO 5′ 11″ 198 DEFENSEMAN JUKURIT FINLAND 62.70 0.20 82
55 KOCHETKOV, PYOTR 6′ 3″ 205 GOALIE RYAZAN RUSSIA-2 63.38 0.67 100
56 CAJKOVIC, MAXIM 5′ 11″ 185 RIGHT WING SAINT JOHN QMJHL 64.10 0.72 87
57 TEPLY, MICHAL 6′ 3″ 187 LEFT WING BENATKY N. J. CZREP-2 67.90 3.80 57
58 HENRIKSSON, KARL 5′ 9″ 166 CENTER FROLUNDA JR. SWEDEN-JR. 67.90 0.00 32
59 LACOMBE, JACKSON 6′ 1″ 171 DEFENSEMAN SHATTUCK – ST.MARY’S PREP HIGH-MN 68.60 0.70 70
60 FARINACCI, JOHN 5′ 11″ 185 CENTER DEXTER SCHOOL HIGH-MA 69.00 0.40 63
61 HELLESON, DREW 6′ 3″ 193 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 70.10 1.10 92
62 SPENCE, JORDAN 5′ 10″ 164 DEFENSEMAN MONCTON QMJHL 71.20 1.10 66
63 BEAUCAGE, ALEX 6′ 1″ 193 RIGHT WING ROUYN-NORANDA QMJHL 71.60 0.40 95
64 THRUN, HENRY 6′ 2″ 190 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 72.10 0.50 92
65 JONES, ZACHARY 5′ 10″ 172 DEFENSEMAN TRI-CITY USHL 72.60 0.50 267
66 SPIRIDONOV, YEGOR 6′ 2″ 192 CENTER MAGNITOGORSK 2 RUSSIA-JR. 72.70 0.10 83
67 KNIAZEV, ARTEMI 5′ 11″ 178 DEFENSEMAN CHICOUTIMI QMJHL 73.60 0.90 84
68 TUOMISTO, ANTTI 6′ 4″ 190 DEFENSEMAN ASSAT JR. FINLAND-JR. 74.30 0.70 86
69 SOGAARD, MADS 6′ 7″ 196 GOALIE MEDICINE HAT WHL 74.63 0.33 44
70 JOHANSSON, ALBERT 5′ 11″ 161 DEFENSEMAN FARJESTAD JR. SWEDEN-JR. 75.30 0.67 91
71 ALEXANDROV, NIKITA 6′ 0″ 183 CENTER CHARLOTTETOWN QMJHL 77.10 1.80 101
72 BECKMAN, ADAM 6′ 0″ 168 LEFT WING SPOKANE WHL 78.20 1.10 137
73 MISYUL, DANIL 6′ 3″ 176 DEFENSEMAN YAROSLAVL 2 RUSSIA-JR. 82.50 4.30 88
74 STRUBLE, JAYDEN 6′ 0″ 194 DEFENSEMAN ST. SEBASTIANS SCHOOL HIGH-MA 82.90 0.40 85
75 NORLINDER, MATTIAS 5′ 11″ 179 DEFENSEMAN MODO JR. SWEDEN-JR. 83.10 0.20 127
76 HAMALIUK, DILLON 6′ 3″ 190 LEFT WING SEATTLE WHL 83.10 0.00 109
77 WARREN, MARSHALL 5′ 11″ 167 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 83.20 0.10 82
78 MACCELLI, MATIAS 5′ 11″ 165 LEFT WING DUBUQUE USHL 84.30 1.10 138
79 CLARKE, GRAEME 5′ 11″ 175 RIGHT WING OTTAWA OHL 85.20 0.90 67
80 FENSORE, DOMENICK 5′ 7″ 151 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 86.60 1.40 86
81 AHAC, LAYTON 6′ 2″ 188 DEFENSEMAN PRINCE GEORGE BCHL 87.50 0.90 160
82 CAMPBELL, ALEXANDER 5′ 10″ 151 LEFT WING VICTORIA BCHL 88.30 0.80 128
83 SAARELA, ANTTI 5′ 11″ 183 CENTER LUKKO FINLAND 88.30 0.00 55
84 KEPPEN, ETHAN 6′ 2″ 212 LEFT WING FLINT OHL 89.50 1.20 79
85 PITLICK, RHETT 5′ 9″ 160 LEFT WING CHASKA HIGH-MN 89.70 0.20 180
86 BOLDUC, SAMUEL 6′ 4″ 210 DEFENSEMAN BLAINVILLE-BOISBRIAND QMJHL 90.00 0.30 167
87 ABRAMOV, MIKHAIL 5′ 10″ 154 CENTER VICTORIAVILLE QMJHL 90.00 0.00 132
88 GUTIK, DANIIL 6′ 3″ 179 LEFT WING YAROSLAVL 2 RUSSIA-JR. 90.90 0.90 54
89 AALTONEN, LEEVI 5′ 9″ 177 RIGHT WING KALPA JR. FINLAND-JR. 91.00 0.10 83
90 ATTARD, RONALD 6′ 3″ 208 DEFENSEMAN TRI-CITY USHL 91.40 0.40 246
91 TIEKSOLA, TUUKKA 5′ 10″ 146 RIGHT WING KARPAT JR. FINLAND-JR. 91.50 0.10 81
92 CHYSTYAKOV, SEMYON 5′ 10″ 167 DEFENSEMAN UFA 2 RUSSIA-JR. 94.30 2.80 77
93 HUGLEN, AARON 5′ 11″ 166 RIGHT WING ROSEAU HIGH-MN 95.50 1.20 251
94 SAVILLE, ISAIAH 6′ 1″ 193 GOALIE TRI-CITY USHL 95.75 0.25 95
95 WOLF, DUSTIN 6′ 0″ 156 GOALIE EVERETT WHL 96.00 0.25 82
96 CONSTANTINOU, WILLIAM 6′ 0″ 186 DEFENSEMAN KINGSTON OHL 96.10 0.10 96
97 JONES, HUNTER 6′ 4″ 197 GOALIE PETERBOROUGH OHL 96.13 0.03 111
98 KALLIONKIELI, MARCUS 6′ 2″ 193 LEFT WING SIOUX CITY USHL 96.80 0.67 69
99 MOYNIHAN, PATRICK 5′ 11″ 183 RIGHT WING USA U-18 NTDP 96.80 0.00 64
100 OKHOTYUK, NIKITA 6′ 1″ 197 DEFENSEMAN OTTAWA OHL 98.00 1.20 147
101 PHILLIPS, ETHAN 5′ 9″ 148 CENTER SIOUX FALLS USHL 98.00 0.00 126
102 SLEPETS, KIRILL 5′ 10″ 165 RIGHT WING YAROSLAVL 2 RUSSIA-JR. 98.10 0.10 246
103 GUSKOV, MATVEY 6′ 1″ 180 CENTER LONDON OHL 98.50 0.40 67
104 NIKKANEN, HENRI 6′ 4″ 200 CENTER JUKURIT JR. FINLAND-JR. 99.00 0.50 131
105 ALNEFELT, HUGO 6′ 2″ 177 GOALIE HV 71 JR. SWEDEN-JR. 99.13 0.13 53
106 BLAISDELL, HARRISON 5′ 11″ 181 CENTER CHILLIWACK BCHL 99.70 0.58 86
107 VUKOJEVIC, MICHAEL 6′ 3″ 207 DEFENSEMAN KITCHENER OHL 99.80 0.10 127
108 FAIRBROTHER, GIANNI 6′ 0″ 194 DEFENSEMAN EVERETT WHL 100.60 0.80 79
109 PASIC, NIKOLA 5′ 10″ 187 RIGHT WING LINKOPING JR. SWEDEN-JR. 101.20 0.60 78
110 MUTALA, SASHA 6′ 0″ 200 RIGHT WING TRI-CITY WHL 102.00 0.80 71
111 CAULFIELD, JUDD 6′ 3″ 207 RIGHT WING USA U-18 NTDP 102.50 0.50 70
112 KOSTER, MICHAEL 5′ 9″ 171 DEFENSEMAN CHASKA HIGH-MN 102.90 0.40 181
113 GILDON, MICHAEL 6′ 2″ 195 LEFT WING USA U-18 NTDP 103.40 0.50 169
114 MINER, TRENT 6′ 0″ 182 GOALIE VANCOUVER WHL 103.50 0.10 53
115 DONOVAN, RYDER 6′ 3″ 184 CENTER DULUTH EAST HIGH-MN 104.30 0.80 248
116 PROTAS, ALIAKSEI 6′ 5″ 205 CENTER PRINCE ALBERT WHL 104.30 0.00 73
117 GRITSYUK, ARSENY 5′ 10″ 169 RIGHT WING OMSK 2 RUSSIA-JR. 104.80 0.50 85
118 NEWKIRK, REECE 5′ 11″ 172 CENTER PORTLAND WHL 105.40 0.60 105
119 LUNDMARK, SIMON 6′ 2″ 201 DEFENSEMAN LINKOPING JR. SWEDEN-JR. 105.50 0.10 92
120 MURRAY, BLAKE 6′ 2″ 187 CENTER SUDBURY OHL 105.50 0.00 72
121 JANICKE, TREVOR 5′ 10″ 193 CENTER CENTRAL ILLINOIS USHL 105.60 0.10 248
122 BYCHKOV, ROMAN 5′ 11″ 161 DEFENSEMAN YAROSLAVL 2 RUSSIA-JR. 106.80 1.20 58
123 RYBINSKI, HENRIK 6′ 0″ 176 RIGHT WING SEATTLE WHL 107.00 0.20 177
124 MACKAY, COLE 5′ 10″ 188 RIGHT WING SAULT STE. MARIE OHL 107.00 0.00 60
125 MCCARTHY, CASE 6′ 1″ 198 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 107.00 0.00 35
126 PORTILLO, ERIK 6′ 6″ 207 GOALIE FROLUNDA JR. SWEDEN-JR. 107.75 0.75 41
127 HAS, MARTIN 6′ 4″ 192 DEFENSEMAN TAPPARA JR. FINLAND-JR. 108.10 0.35 136
128 SIMONEAU, XAVIER 5′ 6″ 169 CENTER DRUMMONDVILLE QMJHL 108.30 0.20 86
129 BRINKMAN, BENJAMIN 6′ 0″ 215 DEFENSEMAN MINNESOTA BIG10 109.60 1.30 169
130 WASHKURAK, KEEAN 5′ 10″ 184 CENTER MISSISSAUGA OHL 109.90 0.30 73
131 BURZAN, LUKA 6′ 0″ 184 RIGHT WING BRANDON WHL 110.80 0.90 164
132 STRONDALA, VOJTECH 5′ 7″ 154 CENTER TREBIC CZREP-2 111.10 0.30 100
133 MIRONOV, ILYA 6′ 3″ 201 DEFENSEMAN YAROSLAVL 2 RUSSIA-JR. 111.90 0.80 81
134 ELLIS, COLTEN 6′ 0″ 189 GOALIE RIMOUSKI QMJHL 112.63 0.72 98
135 NODLER, JOSHUA 5′ 11″ 194 CENTER FARGO USHL 113.00 0.38 186
136 RIZZO, MASSIMO 5′ 10″ 175 CENTER PENTICTON BCHL 113.10 0.10 142
137 KONOVALOV, ILYA 6′ 0″ 194 GOALIE YAROSLAVL RUSSIA 115.63 2.53 202
138 ROWE, CAMERON 6′ 2″ 203 GOALIE USA U-18 NTDP 118.88 3.25 61
139 GAUTHIER, TAYLOR 6′ 1″ 195 GOALIE PRINCE GEORGE WHL 123.38 4.50 97
140 MAIER, NOLAN 6′ 0″ 173 GOALIE SASKATOON WHL 130.75 7.38 110

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