Going by War on Ice’s definition of a scoring chance, we’re able to establish which forwards have been pulling their weight when it comes to creating goal scoring opportunities. Of course, it’s not a perfect system, but it gives us a good idea of what’s been going on this season.
| Player | SCF% | SC+- | SCF | SCA | SCF60 | SCA60 | SCP60 | SCF%Rel | OZS% | ISC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Pacioretty | 51.1 | 22 | 491 | 469 | 29.2 | 27.9 | 57.0 | 5.2 | 59.7 | 192 |
| Brendan Gallagher | 52.4 | 46 | 495 | 449 | 31 | 28.1 | 59 | 7 | 55.4 | 168 |
| Alex Galchenyuk | 51.2 | 21 | 454 | 433 | 29.2 | 27.8 | 57 | 5.5 | 57.9 | 137 |
| Dale Weise | 44.5 | -72 | 294 | 366 | 22.7 | 28.2 | 50.9 | -3.7 | 47.7 | 85 |
| David Desharnais | 50.4 | 8 | 456 | 448 | 27.9 | 27.4 | 55.2 | 4.0 | 58.8 | 76 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 48.1 | -34 | 438 | 472 | 26.1 | 28.1 | 54.3 | 0.7 | 45.3 | 119 |
| Lars Eller | 46.3 | -54 | 336 | 390 | 23.5 | 27.3 | 50.8 | -1.4 | 37.5 | 96 |
| PA Parenteau | 50.3 | 3 | 234 | 231 | 25.5 | 25.2 | 50.7 | 2.6 | 57.7 | 64 |
| Jacob de la Rose | 47.6 | -10 | 101 | 111 | 23.1 | 25.4 | 48.4 | 2.4 | 30.9 | 26 |
| Brandon Prust | 45.1 | -61 | 278 | 339 | 21.7 | 26.4 | 48.1 | -3.3 | 35.9 | 68 |
| Manny Malhotra | 32.7 | -120 | 113 | 233 | 14.6 | 30.2 | 44.8 | -18.7 | 17.9 | 27 |
| Michael Bournival | 45.6 | -16 | 82 | 98 | 22.4 | 26.8 | 49.2 | -1.6 | 41.3 | 27 |
| Christian Thomas | 54.7 | 10 | 58 | 48 | 22.1 | 18.3 | 40.4 | 7.2 | 49.3 | 20 |
| Devante Smith-Pelly | 38.9 | -20 | 35 | 55 | 15.9 | 25 | 40.9 | -3.7 | 47.8 | 7 |
As everyone expected, Max Pacioretty is one of the leaders when it comes to creating scoring chances at even strength, however Brendan Gallagher is not too far behind, and once you factor in the scoring chances for relative to the team (SCF%Rel), Pacioretty falls to fourth, behind Gallagher, Thomas and Galchenyuk.
One of the key numbers to keep in mind is the offensive zone starts (OZS%). Starting a shift in the offensive zone clearly leads to more scoring chances, and when you see Malhotra’s insanely low offensive-zone starts, it becomes clear that his assignments are purely defensive. The same can be said for for Jacob de la Rose, Brandon Prust and Lars Eller. They’re essentially Michel Therrien’s shutdown players, along with Tomas Plekanec, and therefore shouldn’t realistically be looked upon to contribute more offense.
The biggest negative on the team, all things considered, has to be Dale Weise. He’s been on the ice for over 360 scoring chances against, and only 294 for, meaning his scoring chance plus/minus (SC+-) is the worst on the team, except for Malhotra’s. Considering he’s spent a fair amount of time on a line with Pacioretty, it’s clear that his usage is better suited for a fourth line assignment, rather than the top line. He also allows second-most scoring chances against per 60 (SCA/60), behind Malhotra. As you can see, Malhotra is basically the Buffalo Sabres of statistics in this analysis.
Interestingly, Christian Thomas is a scoring chance machine. It’s a limited sample size, but the fact remains that when he’s on the ice the puck tends to stay in the offensive zone. As for Devante Smith-Pelly, we’ll have to give him a little more time to adjust to Montreal’s system, but unfortunately his debut with the Canadiens has not been a positive one in terms of creating scoring chances.
It has to be said that de la Rose has been a nice surprise this season, even with the tough defensive assignments sent his way. On the flip side of the coin, David Desharnais‘ individual scoring chance (ISC) totals are incredibly poor, only 12 more than Parenteau, albeit in 24 more games played. To be fair, Desharnais is a pass-first player, but the fact remains that he doesn’t create much offense on his own. Andrei Markov, for example, has 56 individual scoring chances (5 vs 5) this season.
The Habs will continue to count on Gallagher, Pacioretty & Galchenyuk to lead the offensive charge, but seeing as they’re the primary targets for opponents’ shutdown players, Montreal will need to receive more auxiliary scoring from players like Desharnais, Parenteau, and Weise if they hope to end their current scoring woes.
(all data sourced from war-on-ice.com)
