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Catching The Torch: Putting Ty Smilanic’s game under the microscope

Posted on by Hadi Kalakeche

Welcome back to Catching The Torch, where we keep an eye on the Montreal Canadiens’ North American prospects and how their development is progressing week by week.

We were initially going to continue with our season report cards for the Habs’ NCAA prospects, but Kent Hughes threw a wrench in our plans with this monster trade, sending Ben Chiarot to the Florida Panthers in exchange for first- and fourth-round picks, as well as forward prospect Ty Smilanic.

Listed at 6’1” and 174 pounds on Elite Prospects, Smilanic has been plying his trade in the ECAC division which is next up in our NCAA season analysis. The natural centre has been splitting his time between his preferred position and the right wing, using his overlap speed to generate 13 goals and nine assists for 22 points in 38 games for the Quinnipiac Bobcats.

The season before —his freshman year — the prospect had earned 14 goals and seven assists in 29 games, which indicates a 20% decrease in his production despite an added year of development, growth, and training. That immediately jumps out as a red flag, especially since the team as a whole actually improved its offence compared to last season, in which Smilanic was tied for the team lead in goal-scoring (he currently sits tied for second).

Other elements are just as concerning, such as his grand total of three even-strength primary assists since joining the Bobcats last season, in a division that doesn’t hold as much firepower as the Hockey-East or NCHC, and in which the pace of play can be quite slow. However, there are many things to like about Smilanic’s profile, things that could see him take a step or two in the next few years and come out of his NCAA tenure with an entry-level contract in hand.

Strengths

Goal-scoring — release, versatility, shooting mindset

After watching Smilanic’s highlights, isolated shifts, and one full game against Harvard this year in which he earned two goals and an assist, the main thing that stands out in his game is his release. He has a decent arsenal of shots he can select from, as well as a variety of change-ups he can use to move the goalie and exploit his decisions. Here are all of his 22 points this season:

When he receives a cross-slot pass, Smilanic doesn’t always wire it short-side immediately. He’s comfortable taking a touch and waiting for the goaltender to commit before shooting against the grain to catch the netminder on an aggressive sideways push. This is a small detail that transfers well against professional goaltenders, and should earn him an extra goal or two at the pro level.

Smilanic’s edgework is also beneficial to his release, as the prospect prefers to load his weight on the inside edge of his outside foot, whether it’s a carry-in wrister or a one-timer from the faceoff dots. However, when forced to shoot off-balance, off his inside foot or his outside edge, he still manages to get good velocity, primarily due to his above-average ability to transfer his weight. Downforce is a constant, as the prospect loves to shift his weight downward to create both added velocity and rise on his releases.

He also tends to show decent habits in terms of his goal-scoring, such as reloading high in the offensive zone and funneling down behind defenders’ heels off the puck to exploit their blind spots. However, those habits aren’t universally and consistently good; we’ll get to that later on.

Pace of play — separation speed, intensity, edgework, balance

Smilanic’s skating is a strength in multiple areas; his lower-body strength makes him a decent puck-protector and equips him with a powerful stride, although his ankle could use a bit more flexibility. His knees don’t bend ahead of his toes, so he relies on the middle of his sole to push him forward, but his brute leg strength compensates for that small technical difficulty. Otherwise, Smilanic’s cutbacks, crossovers, foot speed, pivots, and sideways skating all project as NHL average or above.

The forward also shows a level of intensity that has been a major strength against ECAC defenders. He doesn’t hesitate at all to drop the shoulder and carry wide, and on the rare occasions when his opponent keeps up with him, he can shield the puck and keep pushing through or around them. Smilanic is not afraid of one-on-one situations, and will occasionally try to deke through opponents, although he still prefers the wide route and has much more success with it at his level.

Will he succeed at that against the strong, mobile brand of defenceman that permeates professional hockey teams? More on that later on as well.

Areas of improvement

Before we proceed, I want to distinguish between an area of improvement and a weakness; the first represents an element that isn’t a strength, but could very well become one based on a prospect’s tools or their mindset. The second is an element that is unlikely to be developed with time, since neither the tools nor the mindset favour growth in that area.

Playmaking — slowing down the game, finding secondary options

One main reason that Smilanic hasn’t managed to put up many primary assists at even strength is the fact that he very rarely plays pucks to the slot. This is due to two elements: first, if he has the puck in medium or close range, he shoots first and asks questions later. Second, he prefers to delegate the responsibility of playmaking to his teammates on both zone entries and cycle plays, making his way into pockets of space, straight through opponents or to the front of the net in order to finish rather than set players up.

Both of those elements are mindset-based issues. If we look at Smilanic’s passing itself, he’s very good at finding lanes or creating them, has a very receivable dish on both the forehand and the backhand, and rarely misses his mark when he goes for it. His tools make his playmaking work at a surface level, but his toolkit prevents it from being a proper strength in his game.

As we mentioned before, Smilanic loves to dip the shoulder, carry wide, and shoot the puck. That, unfortunately, is the opposite of what a player like Nick Suzuki does: delay, scan, create secondary passing lanes, and execute. Patience is a virtue when it comes to playmaking at the NHL level, and Smilanic lacks in that regard.

Learning to delay and scan is a small adjustment that usually comes with maturity; some have it early, some develop it later, some don’t develop it at all. The difference between Option 2 and Option 3 is a solid development team and a player willing to learn.

Translatability — playing like a pro

We hear the term often when it comes to mature prospects: “He plays like a pro.” But what does that mean?

In short, it comes down to playing in ways that work at the pro level. As we mentioned already, delaying with the puck, finding secondary passing lanes, and executing them is one of many pro habits.

Another one would be the ability to anticipate plays off the puck. This is something that I noticed lacking in Smilanic’s game on many occasions. He can get from assignment to assignment quickly and uses his stick well to disrupt plays when he gets there on time, but rarely does he position himself ahead of what’s coming. The puck moves, and he follows.

His goal-scoring habits also don’t tend to work too well in the NHL; rarely does taking the wide route and powering to the net work against the best defencemen in the world, especially near the top of the lineup. I’m not sure whether Smilanic will be able to translate his goal-scoring success seamlessly and become a 30-goal-scorer at the NHL level, but 20 isn’t necessarily out of the question if the rest of his game falls into place.

As the pace of play ramps up and speed stops being enough to make it, will Smilanic find himself often playing one step behind? It’s hard to tell, given that his skating, his intensity, and his active stick make for a solid foundation upon which to build a more translatable game, but as of right now, there’s a lot to work on.

NHL projection

The question on many Habs fans’ minds at the moment is the most important, yet most difficult one to answer when evaluating a young prospect: Where does he project in the long run?

For projections, I like to look at best-case versus worst-case scenarios — a player’s ceiling, versus their floor. In Smilanic’s case, the tools he has right now, combined with his raw but at times interesting collection of habits and ideas, suggests AHL top-six scorer at worst. However, there isn’t much in his profile that indicates that the Habs have an uncut gem waiting to be polished into a top-line forward.

The best scenario in his case, until he shows otherwise, would be that he makes it as a middle-six winger or third-line centre with the ability to inject some pace, goal-scoring, and intensity up and down the lineup. The kind of player that will support the more high-end thinkers on his line with timely net-drives and the occasional flashy deke, while contributing at an average level defensively. The healthy middle for him would be to make it as a bottom-six fringe goal-scorer, especially if he refines his anticipation and makes it a proper strength.

Time will tell, however, as 20-year-olds rarely stagnate development wise. There’s a lot of room to grow in Smilanic’s case, and the next two years of his NCAA career should give a lot more insight into what’s next for the goal-scoring forward, and how he compares to the 10 other Habs prospects developing in college at the moment.

Thanks for reading — tune in next week as we grade Sean Farrell, Brett Stapley, and Blake Biondi’s seasons (barring another trade for a North American prospect). Follow me on Twitter @HadiK_Scouting for more on the Habs’ prospects, and to keep up with the rest of my scouting work!

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