Oliver Kapanen took the time off from normal off-season training in Europe in 2023 in order to serve his country and do his military service for the Finnish Armed Forces. This impacted more or less his full fall campaign with KalPa, He looked off the pace at times and his production didn’t follow the trajectory of the end of the previous season. The National Service time also meant that Kapanen wasn’t at development camp in Montreal during the summer, which led to him becoming a ‘forgotten’ prospect in the Canadiens system.
Comparing Kapanen’s development through the years by using data from Liiga, it is a clear picture which shows Kapanen’s development has been slow, but always positive. The massive jump in points and share of goals between his draft-plus-one (D+1) and D+2 years is partly due to being eligible for ‘Rookie of the Year’ in his D+2 year.
The progression has sometimes been forgotten, or deemed too little at too slow a speed, by fans and writers, including yours truly. This season was really the time to prove people wrong.
At first, it looked to follow the same path as previously, scoring in batches and not showing consistency. However, the fact is that this past season has really been one of two halves. After Christmas, Kapanen settled down on a line with Mäenpää and Kantner, and this made made all the difference for his season. Suddenly he started to use his body more heavily in the forecheck (much like Juraj Slafkovský grew into his this year), creating space and time for himself, which resulted in more success both as a passer and as a shooter. At the end of the season, and in the playoffs, this was KalPa’s first line, and Kapanen used the mean streak that he has shown in a more controlled way. This resulted in a fall/spring split of 10 points (5G, 5A) versus 24 points (9G, 15A) in the second half. Adding the 14 points (7G, 7A) in the playoffs to the comparison only enhances the progression through out the season in his game.
In the playoffs, Kapanen turned into a beast and played the best hockey of his career, something that has resulted in a role for the Leijonat in the warm-up games leading up to the World Championship. It is now up to him to show that he is ready for the next step in his development and become a regular in Jukka Jalonen’s national team selection, having made his national team debut in the Five Nations tournament in February. It will be difficult to get a role on the Lions, with players set to come from the teams playing in the Liiga final, National League, and SHL, as well as players arriving from the NHL, but Kapanen’s versatility can be a strength here, as he can be placed on a defensive line and still contribute with an offensive upside.
Credit: NLIceData
One can see a steady improvement in Kapanen’s development from the data above, however even with this season’s production he still projects as a 20-point player in the NHL. Even with the added scoring this season, the numbers don’t go up as much due to his increased age.
Strengths
In typical fashion for a centre, Kapanen’s main strength lies in his hockey IQ and the way he reads the game. I have followed him since before the draft and one thing that has always stood out is how he plays the game, be it in the defensive or the offensive zone. He has adjusted from the defensive end to be a more complete player over the last two seasons. He can be used in all situations of the game: transition passes, five-on-five, in a penalty-killing situation, or being in the bumper position on the power play where his quick release and quick hands come into play.
His shot is accurate and fast. He lacks a slapshot, but gets good pace with his wristshot and his hand-eye coordination helps him score from tip-ins and deflections from in close.
Weaknesses
His understanding of the game helps him set up plays, but his creativity is not up to the the same level, and I have trouble seeing him actually run a power play at a high level. This seems evident in the usage with KalPa as a trigger man when the team is on the advantage. With less ice to work with and a faster-paced game, I can’t really see him working into such a role in NHL or AHL down the line.
Kapanen has better-than-average skating, but he lacks a high top speed and doesn’t get the power of his edge-work to really accelerate. He can be shifty in tight situations, but that’s more to do with his hand-eye coordination than any shiftiness or elusiveness.
One thing that still stands out is that when Kapanen has confidence he stands out for all the good reasons, however when the confidence deserts him for different reasons he struggles to get it back. Being on a roll as in the final months of the 2024 season you can see him blossom, but he can also wilt as he did at the start of the campaign. This might be the one thing that could hold him back from the NHL down the line.
Grade: A-
It is tough not to give a young player that leads his team in scoring in the playoffs, and will undoubtedly finish high in the Liiga playoff rankings when all has been decided, an A+. However, even if there is a reason for Kapanen’s slow start to the season, I bring that into the grade. There is also the lingering factor of him being more dependent on his linemates than him being able to lead his line. This together with his lack of consistency over the season is also a factor. The production has increased, but so has his experience and age. His big improvement in points correlates to just five points in the NHLe model provided by NLIceData.
Future
There is the question of if Kapanen projects as a centre, or a winger. While the prospect of him as a winger on Owen Beck’s line could be enticing in that it could become a black hole for an opposing offensive line, it also means that he is difficult to project in the Canadiens’ future lineup. It could also mean that one line would have a complete shutdown role, and not produce a lot at all, which would lead to more work for other trios.
The slow and steady progress of Kapanen is positive. There is a rumour (at least until May 1) that he has already signed with Timrå for next year, a team his dad Kimmo Kapanen is GM for. It would be a logical step to continue his slow and steady progress in the SHL, a step up from Liiga, but a league lower than the AHL. It might be beneficial to work on the speed of the game, before going over the Atlantic to a smaller rink and having to work on both speed and ice size at the same time.
