For the second year in a row, the Vancouver Canucks have opened the run-in to the NHL Trade Deadline with a blockbuster. However, while it can be argued that the return for last year’s Bo Horvat trade set the tone for more of a buyer’s market, this year’s acquisition of Elias Lindholm has not just tipped the scales in favour of the seller, but smashed the plates clear off the fulcrum — much to Kent Hughes’s glee.
On the night of January 31, the Canucks and Calgary Flames agreed to ship Lindholm across the Rockies and down the Fraser Valley in exchange for a precedent-smashing haul: Andrei Kuzmenko, a 2024 first-round pick, Hunter Brzustewicz, Joni Jurmo, and a conditional 2024 fourth round pick (it becomes a third if the Canucks make the conference finals). The 27-year-old Kuzmenko had fallen out of favour to some degree in Vancouver, but is one season removed from a 39-goal rookie campaign. Moreover, as his contract expires after the 2024-25 season, the Russian is a prime candidate to be traded again to bring in more assets for the Flames.
Brzustewicz and Jurmo are both defencemen selected in the third round (from 2023 and 2020, respectively). The 19-year-old Brzustewicz, listed at 6’0”, 188 pounds, is currently leading the OHL in points by a defenceman with 69 points in 47 games, a total that puts him only four points behind league leader Anthony Romani. Jurmo, 21, is a hulking 6’5”, 209-pound defensive blue-liner who was praised for his skating during his draft year. Jurmo’s development has stalled in recent years, but his skill set and size still indicate potential.
Historically, pending unrestricted free agents get moved at the trade deadline for a late-first-round pick and a mid-tier prospect (or a package of equivalent value). For example, Horvat, despite having 31 goals to his name at the time and being team captain, only fetched a depth roster player (Anthony Beauvillier), a mid-to-high tier prospect (Aatu Räty), and a conditional first-round selection. Lindholm has just fetched a mid-tier roster player, a mid-to-high-tier prospect, a mid-to-low-tier prospect, a first rounder, and a conditional fourth. Somehow, Lindholm’s 32 points resulted in a larger return than Horvat and his 31 goals.
Now, the best centre remaining on the market is the Montreal Canadiens’ Sean Monahan.
If you ask Habs fans, there is little question that their man is the superior player. Flames fans would probably say the opposite. Statistically, there is very little separating the two centres. Lindholm has 32 points in 49 games, Monahan has 35. Lindholm is favoured by statistical modelling, but Monahan actually has better advanced stats relative to their respective teams (for example, Lindholm’s expected goals for ratio [xGF%] is 6.7% below Calgary’s team average, Monahan is 0.8% below Montreal’s). For what it’s worth, Lindholm is slightly better than Monahan at the faceoff dot, with a 56.1% win rate to 54.9%.
In short, since there’s little separating Lindholm and Monahan in merit, there should be little separating them in price. If anything, given that prices generally trend upward as the deadline grows closer, Monahan should fetch more than the newest member of the Vancouver Canucks.
More importantly, the sheer size of Vancouver’s offer (as well as Monahan’s very team-friendly contract) gives Hughes both flexibility and license to shoot for the moon. Everything is now in the picture. If a suitor is light on available draft picks, recent first-rounders like Calum Ritchie, Gabe Perreault, and Bradley Nadeau are fully in play. Hughes even has the leeway to propose trades for higher-tier prospects like Rutger McGroarty and Colby Barlow in lieu of a four- or five-component package.
The question is, which teams would have both the interest and the assets to make a deal work in this new market?
The Winnipeg Jets have been linked with Monahan for a long time, but general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has been traditionally conservative when it comes to trades. Winnipeg has the draft picks, holding first-, second-, and third-round selections in both 2024 and 2025. They also have the prospects, with the likes of Brad Lambert, Chaz Lucius, and Elias Salomonsson in addition to the aforementioned McGroarty and Barlow. Do they have the will to go all-in, something that they have resisted for the better part of a decade? Or does the front office play the long game seeing as they have Mark Schiefele and Connor Hellebuyck under contract for the next seven years?
Going all-in has never been a problem for the Vegas Golden Knights. The defending Stanley Cup champions sit second in the Pacific Division, trailing only the Canucks. They’re also currently having depth issues down the middle, with both Jack Eichel and William Karlsson on Injured Reserve until at least after the All-Star break. This has forced the Golden Knights to lean more heavily on Nicolas Roy (who’s coping well) and Chandler Stephenson (who isn’t). Vegas’s developmental cupboard isn’t as well-stocked as Winnipeg’s, but they do have the likes of David Edstrom to offer, as well as both 2024 and 2025 first-round picks.
Finally, the Dallas Stars are an interesting option, mostly because their best fit for Monahan would likely be as a faceoff-specialist winger. After all, Dallas already has Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn, and Tyler Seguin forming one of the most experienced spines in the NHL, and has also used Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Matt Duchene at the centre position as needed to give themselves absurd levels of top-nine flexibility. Monahan might be simply another drop in the bucket, but there’s no such thing as too much depth when it comes to playoff time (just ask the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs). In terms of return, Logan Stankoven plays all three forward positions and is highly touted despite his size, Mavrik Bourque has 47 points in 39 games with the Texas Stars, and Lian Bichsel was just loaned to Rögle BK after seven points in sixteen AHL games.
The next few weeks suddenly got a lot more interesting.
