Offensive Expectations: Analyzing the Canadiens’ scoring slump

I did this recap every week because I was expecting that the Canadiens would eventually run into a slump.Despite having the best shot differential in the league, they have had some serious trouble putting pucks in the net lately.

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

	Shots	Goals
Average before	31.5	3.03
Average this week	30.3	1
Average now	31.4	2.84
82-game pace	2575	232

Here are the numbers for the entire roster. You can click a column’s heading to sort it.

Player	Position	GP	Exp. S	Actual S	Pace S	Exp. G	Actual G	Pace G	Exp. P	Actual P	Pace P	Sh%
Andrighetto, Sven	F	12	110	15	103	10	4	27	25	4	27	26.67
Beaulieu, Nathan	D	36	144	45	103	6	2	5	20	11	25	4.44
Byron, Paul	F	25	131	17	56	12	5	16	25	7	23	29.41
Carr, Daniel	F	10	110	19	156	8	4	33	20	5	41	21.05
Desharnais, David	F	37	109	53	117	10	7	16	45	18	40	13.21
Eller, Lars	F	37	108	59	131	12	7	16	27	12	27	11.86
Emelin, Alexei	D	30	74	22	60	3	0	0	14	2	5	0
Fleischmann, Tomas	F	37	131	72	160	12	8	18	25	17	38	11.11
Flynn, Brian	F	37	99	49	109	6	4	9	20	9	20	8.16
Galchenyuk, Alex	F	37	225	75	166	25	8	18	50	24	53	10.67
Gallagher, Brendan	F	22	208	70	261	25	9	34	50	19	71	12.86
Gilbert, Tom	D	36	49	31	71	2	0	0	12	1	2	0
Holloway, Georges	F	1	88	1	82	8	0	0	22	0	0	0
Hudon, Charles	F	2	78	1	41	7	0	0	30	2	82	0
Markov, Andrei	D	37	140	50	111	8	2	4	40	20	44	4
McCarron, Michael	F	2	78	4	164	7	0	0	20	0	0	0
Mitchell, Torrey	F	26	66	28	88	4	5	16	12	10	32	17.86
Pacioretty, Max	F	37	308	149	330	37	14	31	60	27	60	9.4
Pateryn, Greg	D	8	49	8	82	2	0	0	8	0	0	0
Petry, Jeff	D	35	192	70	164	8	4	9	25	12	28	5.71
Plekanec, Tomas	F	37	167	82	182	20	7	16	50	27	60	8.54
Smith-Pelly, Devante	F	28	115	32	94	7	3	9	19	8	23	9.38
Subban, P.K.	D	37	211	98	217	12	1	2	50	24	53	1.02
Tinordi, Jarred	D	3	49	0		2	0		9	0		NA
Weise, Dale	F	37	88	88	195	8	10	22	18	18	40	11.36

Let’s be honest here. Who was expecting Tomas Fleischmann or Dale Weise to score 40 goals this year? Or that Torrey Mitchell would score every two shots? Who thought that Byron would solve our deficiencies on the right wing? I thought that Alexander Semin would do better, but other than that, the team is pretty much performing as expected.

So what’s going on with the drought? Most of the shooters have come back down to earth, while Byron, Mitchell, Sven Andrighetto, and Daniel Carr still have unsustainable shooting percentages. These players are likely to regress, but the change in scoring may not be so drastic.

Carr, for example, has been producing scoring chances at a ridiculous rate, with 15 high danger scoring chances in as many games. He’s not quite on the level of Brendan Gallagher, who had 49 in 22 games, but he’s a very serviceable replacement. When you consider that David Desharnais only had 29 in 37 games, and Tomas Plekanec only had 24 in 37 games, it becomes clear that Carr has earned a spot in the top six.

The defensemen haven’t been particularly lucky either. P.K. Subban is shooting at an abysmal rate just over 1%, and the only two who are around the league average are Nathan Beaulieu and Jeff Petry. Expectations are low for guys like Tom Gilbert, Alexei Emelin, and Jarred Tinordi, but it stands to reason that nearly all of them are due for an increase.

In terms of expected point totals, half of the team is behind pace, with most players at least a goal back of where they should be. You can blame the coach, the system, or the players, but it’s clear that the team is goal starved right now. What they need is another game breaker, and thankfully one named Brendan Gallagher will soon be available again.

Perhaps the earlier loss against Boston cursed the Habs, and hopefully they can break it by hammering them at the Winter Classic.

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