The 2023 NHL Draft has been all about Connor Bedard, and to a lesser extent Adam Fantilli as the top two pieces in the class. Of course that’s for good reason as Bedard seems to be well on his way to becoming a franchise cornerstone in Chicago, and Adam Fantilli piled up awards in his first NCAA season.
One of the biggest storylines after that duo is a trio from the United States National Team Development Program’s first line. All three players possess special qualities, and all of them are likely to be taken in the first 15 or so picks. Will Smith appears to be leading the charge to be picked first.
Smith was the pivot on the top line. He played his complementary part like Ryan Leonard and Gabriel Perreault did, but on raw talent alone Smith stands atop the mountain. A deft playmaker with underrated shooting talent, he is an incredible consolation prize for those who missed out on Bedard and Fantilli.
Birthplace: Lexington, Massachusetts
Date of birth: March 17, 2005
Shoots: Right
Position: Centre
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 172 lbs
Team: USNTDP (committed to Boston College)
The only way to describe Will Smith’s season with the USNTDP in the last calendar year is “special.” His 127 total points were second on the team to Perreault, and the second-best season in USNTDP history. To put it in perspective, Smith’s 2022-23 season surpasses the best efforts of players like Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, Matthew Tkachuk and Cole Caufield … by miles.
Smith has the ability to force opposing teams to swarm him the second he gets anywhere near the puck. When that happens, he immediately reads the opposing defence, and puts a puck right into the space where his teammate will soon be, and the offence takes over from there. Whether on his forehand or his backhand, he has no problems inviting in the pressure and finding a new passing seam into a high-danger area with relative ease.
Scouting experts have talked about how Smith plays like he has eyes in the back of his head. Whether he’s identifying a trailing option when gaining the zone or operating as a secondary distributor, he just finds lanes that most players fail to recognize. His instincts thrive as a playmaker first and foremost, both at speed and from a standstill, yet it’s unwise to rule out his talents as a goal-scorer, too.
He disguises his shot intentions well with an exaggerated wind-up, like he is attempting a slapshot, before either firing a pass off, or changing the angle of his shot. He will default to the pass, sometimes to his own detriment, but it’s at the risk of opposing defences to give him any sort of clean look on goal in the offensive zone.
When we look at the expected points for the USNTDP in the chart above, Will Smith was involved in nearly everything his team did. He was second in expected goals and assists, behind Gabriel Perreault, not at all unexpected with their historic seasons. If there were goals being scored by the U.S. team, it’s highly likely Smith had a hand in them somehow, and that sort of high-end talent is something any team could use in its rebuild.
Everything isn’t perfect with Smith, however. He he’d probably be going second overall in this draft in that case. He is a skilled player with the puck on his stick, but when the puck isn’t on it is when things get dicey. He has a tendency to try the high-risk pass instead of the more readily available one, and it doesn’t always pay off. When it doesn’t, the play quickly leaves the offensive zone, and Smith’s defensive efforts, namely in terms of backchecking, are lacking more often than not. It’s not that he can’t read plays defensively, it just appears that the effort isn’t expended to actually do so in some cases.
The other major drawback is that he has an aversion to making physical plays in most circumstances. He doesn’t look to shield the puck and leverage opposing defences, often surrendering a chance to gain an inside edge in favour of avoiding the contact. While incredibly agile, he will need to learn how to protect the puck at the next level or will risk being a perimeter player only in the professional ranks.
Preliminary Rankings
Dobber Prospects: #5
Elite Prospects: #7
FCHockey: #5
Hockey Prospect: #8
Hadi Kalakeche: #7
McKeen’s:#4
Bob McKenzie(TSN): #6
NHL Central Scouting: #3 (North American skaters)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic): #5
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): #5
Since the Montreal Canadiens had settled into the fifth overall spot, it’s been a fairly common opinion among the fans that they should take Smith if he’s available. It’s looking like that may not be the case, as the San Jose Sharks appear to be set on Smith with their fourth overall selection. If you’re Kent Hughes, do you consider packaging up your fifth overall pick, a high-end prospect, and possibly more to move up just one spot to select Smith?
The ceiling is incredibly tempting, potentially the second-highest in the draft behind Connor Bedard, but there are inherent, obvious drawbacks as well. It makes sense for the Habs to make the move, as Smith immediately adds a prospect into their current pool that they haven’t really had since Cole Caufield was in the NCAA. The caveat being, with a team in the same spot as the Habs, do you remove one of your high-end pieces for a bit of a mystery box?
In my eyes, if you want to take a high-ceiling forward at fifth overall, and assuming Smith is gone, it would be wise to roll the dice on Matvei Michkov and keep your assets in the organization. If you’re opting to pass on Smith, there’s the option of Zach Benson right there as well.
I’ve been banging the Will Smith drum since the Canadiens were effectively eliminated from first overall contention. Smith is one of the most established playmakers in this draft class, and has room to continue growing. He would add a layer of skill in the Montreal lineup inside of two years that would be welcomed immediately. His style of playing with space fits the core ideals of Martin St-Louis’s system as well, even with some of his defensive issues.
Of course it may not be in the hands of the Canadiens come draft day based on the media reports. So it is up to Hughes to decide if the flash and sizzle of Smith is worth paying a large amount on the draft floor, or if they can accept the next best option.
Anton Rasegård
