With the three recent wins the Habs have jumped from roughly a 12% chance to make the playoffs all the way to 23.82%. While it’s not quite time to plan the parade, we can project some scenarios that would lead to the team making the playoffs.
If they want to make the big dance they’ll either need to win two out of every three games going forward or pick up 34 points in the remaining 27 games. That would secure a 85% chance of making the playoffs this season. They don’t necessarily need to win 18 out of the remaining 27 games either, as long as they pick up a few loser points along the way.
The following records should, by all logic, earn them a spot in the playoffs:
16-9-2 = 92 points (52% playoff chance)
16-8-3 = 93 points (75% playoff chance)
17-8-2 = 94 points (85% playoff chance)
It’s a tall task, but not an impossible one. Let’s take a look at the remaining games.
| DATE | Away | Home | Opponent Playoffs | Opponent SA CF% | Must Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRI, 12 FEB 2016 | CANADIENS | SABRES | No | 46.8% | Yes |
| MON, 15 FEB 2016 | CANADIENS | COYOTES | No | 46.4% | Yes |
| WED, 17 FEB 2016 | CANADIENS | AVALANCHE | Yes | 43.5% | Yes |
| FRI, 19 FEB 2016 | FLYERS | CANADIENS | No | 48.9% | Yes |
| MON, 22 FEB 2016 | PREDATORS | CANADIENS | Yes | 53.6% | |
| WED, 24 FEB 2016 | CANADIENS | CAPITALS | Yes | 52.2% | |
| SAT, 27 FEB 2016 | LEAFS | CANADIENS | No | 49.9% | Yes |
| MON, 29 FEB 2016 | CANADIENS | SHARKS | Yes | 51.1% | Yes |
| WED, 2 MAR 2016 | CANADIENS | DUCKS | Yes | 53.2% | |
| THU, 3 MAR 2016 | CANADIENS | KINGS | Yes | 56.7% | |
| SAT, 5 MAR 2016 | CANADIENS | JETS | No | 51.8% | Yes |
| TUE, 8 MAR 2016 | STARS | CANADIENS | Yes | 53.8% | |
| THU, 10 MAR 2016 | SABRES | CANADIENS | No | 46.8% | Yes |
| SAT, 12 MAR 2016 | WILD | CANADIENS | No | 48.2% | Yes |
| TUE, 15 MAR 2016 | PANTHERS | CANADIENS | Yes | 48.1% | Yes |
| WED, 16 MAR 2016 | CANADIENS | SABRES | No | 46.8% | Yes |
| SAT, 19 MAR 2016 | CANADIENS | SENATORS | No | 46.0% | Yes |
| SUN, 20 MAR 2016 | FLAMES | CANADIENS | No | 47.0% | Yes |
| TUE, 22 MAR 2016 | DUCKS | CANADIENS | Yes | 53.2% | |
| THU, 24 MAR 2016 | CANADIENS | WINGS | Yes | 51.4% | Yes |
| SAT, 26 MAR 2016 | RANGERS | CANADIENS | Yes | 48.9% | Yes |
| TUE, 29 MAR 2016 | WINGS | CANADIENS | Yes | 51.4% | |
| THU, 31 MAR 2016 | CANADIENS | LIGHTNING | Yes | 52.7% | |
| SAT, 2 APR 2016 | CANADIENS | PANTHERS | Yes | 48.1% | Yes |
| TUE, 5 APR 2016 | PANTHERS | CANADIENS | Yes | 48.1% | Yes |
| THU, 7 APR 2016 | CANADIENS | HURRICANES | No | 53.0% | Yes |
| SAT, 9 APR 2016 | LIGHTNING | CANADIENS | Yes | 52.7% |
16 of the remaining 27 games are against playoff teams; however, only six of the remaining 27 games are versus teams with a higher Corsi For percentage than Montreal’s (52.8%). Of course, it doesn’t matter where the Habs get their points, but I marked the “weaker” teams as must wins. The teams above them could also help out by losing key games.
There’s some reason to be optimistic. Despite being out-shot versus the Lightning, the Habs actually dominated the high danger scoring chances, to the tune of 15-5. They out chanced their opponents in the last three games and, after a few dismal months, they seem to have found their scoring touch. Well, the second line has found its scoring touch.
The “top” line is still struggling, with Desharnais and Pacioretty only producing two goals for in over 150 minutes of even strength ice time this season. Regardless of their lineup issues, the Habs have hovered around the top five in terms of CF% all year, which is usually a good sign for any team. Their main issue was the disconnect between shot attempts and high danger scoring chances, which has been improving lately.
The recent wins dropped their lottery odds to 3%, so we may as well forget about tanking for the time being. They’re simply not a bad enough team to finish below teams like Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton, and Columbus.
There’s no margin for error, and the Habs will need to play over .650 hockey throughout the rest of the year. They’ll also need great goaltending from both Ben Scrivens and Mike Condon, or perhaps a miracle return from Carey Price. A successful power play wouldn’t hurt either.
It won’t be easy, but the Habs still have an opportunity to make the playoffs, despite having suffered a historically awful stretch of play. It starts with their next four games, all of which should be considered must win scenarios.
As Moliere famously said, “The greater the obstacle, the more glory in overcoming it.”
It’s time for the team to start believing in the “no excuses” motto that hangs in locker room. Wasting a prime year of young core players would be inexcusable, especially if the result is a season where they not only miss the playoffs, but miss out on a top 10 player in the draft. Essentially, the team needs to avoid finishing in no man’s land.
Can the Habs make the playoffs?
| Playoffs?!?!?! Playoffs?!?!?! | 145 |
| Yes, I believe! | 560 |
| No, they should still tank | 198 |
| They’re going to finish in no man’s land | 479 |
