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Offensive Expectations: Alex Galchenyuk has cooled, and therefore the Habs’ offence has stalled

Too good to tank, too bad to make the playoffs. The Montreal Canadiens are in the worst possible scenario: stuck in limbo. We will see if Mother Luck will give us a push at the lotteries.

The past week brought three losses, and an overtime win over the nearest trailer in the Eastern Conference.

Let’s take a look at the numbers from what was was a rather uninteresting series of games:

Shots Goals
Average before 30.9 2.6
Average last week 31.0 1.3
Average now 30.9 2.6
82-game pace 2533 210

Here are the numbers for the entire roster. You can click a column’s heading to sort it. Shootout goals are not included in the totals. (Traded players have been removed as well as those who are confirmed to be out for the season: Daniel Carr, Brian Flynn, Tom Gilbert, and Jeff Petry.)

Player Position GP Exp. S Actual S Pace S Exp. G Actual G Pace G Exp. P Actual P Pace P Sh%
Andrighetto, Sven F 37 110 58 129 10 6 13 25 13 29 10.3
Barberio, Mark D 30 74 32 87 3 2 5 14 10 27 6.3
Bartley, Victor D 9 49 8 73 2 0 0 8 0 0 0.0
Beaulieu, Nathan D 59 144 67 93 6 2 3 20 18 25 3.0
Brown, Mike F 9 66 8 73 6 0 0 15 0 0 0.0
Byron, Paul F 53 131 42 65 12 9 14 25 14 22 21.4
Danault, Phillip F 12 99 11 75 6 1 7 20 3 21 9.1
de la Rose, Jacob F 19 66 19 82 4 0 0 10 1 4 0.0
Desharnais, David F 57 109 79 114 10 9 13 45 26 37 11.4
Dietz, Darren D 4 74 2 41 3 0 0 10 0 0 0.0
Eller, Lars F 70 108 129 151 12 11 13 27 22 26 8.5
Ellis, Morgan D 3 74 3 82 3 0 0 15 0 0 0.0
Emelin, Alexei D 63 74 60 78 3 0 0 14 8 10 0.0
Galchenyuk, Alex F 73 225 183 206 25 26 29 50 48 54 14.2
Gallagher, Brendan F 49 208 153 256 25 18 30 50 35 59 11.8
Hanley, Joel D 1 49 0 0 1 0 0 8 0 0 NA
Holloway, George F 1 88 1 82 8 0 0 22 0 0 0.0
Hudon, Charles F 3 78 3 82 7 0 0 30 2 55 0.0
Lessio, Lucas F 10 99 13 107 6 0 0 7 1 8 0.0
Markov, Andrei D 73 140 104 117 8 5 6 40 40 45 4.8
Matteau, Stefan F 8 88 4 41 8 0 0 20 1 10 0.0
McCarron, Michael F 14 78 33 193 7 1 6 20 2 12 3.0
Mitchell, Torrey F 62 66 57 75 4 8 11 12 15 20 14.0
Pacioretty, Max F 73 308 268 301 37 24 27 60 53 60 9.0
Pateryn, Greg D 29 49 28 79 2 1 3 8 4 11 3.6
Plekanec, Tomas F 73 167 172 193 20 12 13 50 47 53 7.0
Subban, P.K. D 68 211 176 212 12 6 7 50 51 62 3.4

Pace stats are projected over a full year of hockey (82 games).

Alex Galchenyuk scored versus the Florida Panthers, and is now leading the team in goals. While his run has been very impressive, he had an unsustainable shooting percentage in order to effect it. He has reached the expected 25 goals I had for him this season, though his shooting percentage will probably regress a bit. He has the kind of talent to keep it around 14%, but that’s a very high mark in the modern NHL.

We saw the first NHL goals for Michael McCarron and Greg Pateryn. It was not always pretty, but the work ethic of those two young players has been unquestionable.

Even though he didn’t score, Lucas Lessio maintains his shot-per-game rate despite limited play. I can’t say the same for Stefan Matteau, who has been struggling to show he deserves a spot on the team.

After a hot start, Tomas Plekanec hasn’t found the back of the net since February 9, and has just two assists since the trade deadline. With all the injuries to the roster players, he hasn’t been seeing time alongside the gifted offensive talents he was at the beginning of the year.

Andrei Markov hasn’t been excelling on the top pair in P.K. Subban‘s absence, but he is still an important piece of our defence corps. Nathan Beaulieu and Mark Barberio contributed assists, and the latter is proving himself a very useful asset the team could use next season.

Alexei Emelin has been playing well without the puck, though he hasn’t scored in close to a year. At the very least, he gave the defensive-zone coverage a bit of respectablility while Subban was on the sidelines, and has reasserted himself as an NHL defenceman this season.

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