Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs
How to watch
Start time: 7:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM PDT
In Canada: Sportsnet (English), TVA Sports (French)
Streaming: ESPN+, Sportsnet Now
That which is united will inevitably divide, that which is divided will inevitably unite.
— Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Luo Guanzhong.
The unexpected run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, coupled with the demands of playing during a global pandemic, pushed the Montreal Canadiens to the breaking point and beyond. As a result, the last 22 months have been spent pulling together the shattered fragments of a spent force. General manager Kent Hughes, alongside executive vice president Jeff Gorton and head coach Martin St-Louis, has been hard at work determining what could be salvaged, what to keep, what to discard, and what to acquire. As the Canadiens prepare to open the 2023-24 campaign, their lineup is expected to only feature six holdovers from 2021: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, Jake Evans, and Jake Allen.
But 22 months, while not a long time, is not a short time either. As the rebuild enters its third season, the Canadiens are feeling something that they have not felt since 2021: expectation. The disparate fragments — sourced from within and without — are starting to coalesce into a tangible entity, and one reasonably should expect this composite product to show signs of progression.
Progression does not necessarily mean winning. For the likes of Suzuki, Caufield, and Kirby Dach, all now on their second contracts, progression means showing that they have what it takes to be fundamental pillars of the franchise for the next five or ten years. For Anderson and Alex Newhook, progression means establishing themselves as vital supporting cogs in the Canadiens machine. Kaiden Guhle and Juraj Slafkovský’s progression means translating all the potential in the world into tangible growth. For Gallagher, progression means halting a slide that began in 2021 and shows little sign of abating. And for the likes of Arber Xhekaj, Jordan Harris, Justin Barron, and Johnathan Kovacevic, progression means showing that they are doing more than simply keeping top-four seats warm for David Reinbacher and Lane Hutson.
By now, it’s clear that Hughes and company have decided on a plan going forward, a plan that, in theory, emphasizes speed, skill, creativity, and versatility. In practice though, the Canadiens are very much a work in progress. There is still work to do in determining how all the pieces will fit together, and whether any new pieces are needed before the puzzle is complete. This year will go a long way in determining whether the Habs can start to go all-in on their vision in 2024 and beyond.
Amusingly, their opponents, despite a half-decade of regular-season success, are in the same boat.
| Canadiens | Statistics (22-23) | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| 31-45-6 | Record | 50-21-11 |
| 42.6% (29th) | Scoring-chances-for % | 53.9% (5th) |
| 2.77 (26th) | Goals per game | 3.39 (9th) |
| 3.72 (29th) | Goals against per game | 2.68 (7th) |
| 16.1% (29th) | PP% | 26.0 (2nd) |
| 72.7% (29th) | PK% | 81.9% (12th) |
| 2-2-0 | Head-to-head record | 2-1-1 |
The Toronto Maple Leafs are defined by their core four: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. But the team, like the Canadiens, has also spent the last 22 months trying to rearrange their pieces into a coherent whole. Despite winning 104 regular-season games during that span — almost twice as many as Montreal — the Leafs enter opening night this year with the same number of holdovers from 2021 as the Tricolore: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Morgan Rielly, and T.J. Brodie.
Last season, after blowing a three-games-to-two lead to the Tampa Bay Lightning, then-general manager Kyle Dubas brought in Ryan O’Reilly, Sam Lafferty, Noel Acciari, Luke Schenn, and Jake McCabe. The fruits of his labour: an additional four games and two wins in the post-season, marking the most successful Leafs campaign since 2004. His reward: a new position as president of hockey operations with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Dubas’s successor, pizza scion Brad Treliving, rewrote his blueprint. Of his predecessor’s 2022-23 moves, only McCabe remains with the franchise. In their stead now stands a new cohort of veterans: Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, Ryan Reaves, and John Klingberg. The Leafs have also maintained their “handful of supplementary homegrown guys” quota in the face of Michael Bunting’s departure; as Bunting replaced Zach Hyman, now Matthew Knies and Fraser Minten will try to replace Bunting.
How long can the tapestry, so often reworked, be held together before it begins to fray and unravel? How many more throws of the dice will there be? Matthews may be under lock-and-key, but Nylander, Brodie, and goaltender Ilya Samsonov are all headed for unrestricted free agency at season’s end. Tavares, Marner, and McCabe are to follow the season after. The Leafs have felt the weight of expectation for many seasons, but they are also now feeling the pressure of urgency more than ever.
At the start of the 2022-23 season, the Montreal Canadiens looked to defy expectations of unparalleled futility, while the Toronto Maple Leafs looked to finally meet expectations of playoff success. As the puck drops on 2023-24, the situation is reversed. The Habs are trying to meet expectations of continued growth, cohesion, and unity, while the Leafs are trying defy expectations of their rapidly closing window — to stave off their inevitable fragmentation.
A story that is just starting to be written meets one heading towards its conclusion.
