Welcome back to Catching The Torch, where we keep up with the Montreal Canadiens’ CHL prospects and how their development is progressing week by week.
Since an update on one particular OHL forward was highly requested, I thought I’d push our Across The Border segment to next week and prioritize a CHL update instead. Our readers were right to ask for an update; it was long overdue, and well-deserved.
Owen Beck
Manipulation through movement
Beck’s season so far, on paper, has shown a slight but unimpressive uptick in production, going from 1.10 points per game last year to 1.14 through 22 matches this season. The lack of standout offensive production as a draft-plus-two prospect who earned an NHL call-up last year would be concerning, if it weren’t for the improvements in key areas of his game.
Firstly, Beck is using his shooting threat off the rush a lot more frequently.
Goal-scoring ability is often the separating factor between a fourth-liner and a middle-sixer. As good as Jake Evans is, he won’t see much time in the middle six due to the fact that he can’t finish like Christian Dvorak or Tanner Pearson.
Beyond the change in Beck’s shooting mindset, one major strength of his has become even better: his off-puck movement.
Beck’s intelligence has always been his strong suit. His ability to read plays and accurately predict their outcome earned him most of his points last year. This tendency has improved this season — he consistently plays three steps ahead, anticipates opponents’ routes and intentions and times his interventions to perfection. Once possession is secured, Beck plays the puck quickly as to avoid unnecessary contact and finds open space away from the play.
Now a lot more confident in his ability to orchestrate and manipulate through his routes, Beck directs his teammates with verbal cues and body language, acting as a general by pointing his stick at an open forward his teammate didn’t see, or indicating exactly where he wants a pass to land for him.
Beck’s invitation to the World Juniors selection camp comes as no surprise given how well he played when subbing in for Colton Dach last year after initially getting cut, and sequences like these should be a regularity in the bottom-six role he will inevitably occupy in that tournament.
These improvements have solidified Beck’s upside as a middle-six, two-way centre. Though he still struggles to play inside contact, the qualities he has allow him to circumvent that issue. One of the hardest things to do at an NHL level is to corral a puck in motion while being leaned on by an opponent. If Beck can incorporate that element into his skill set, there is room to grow into a bona fide 2C role. As he stands right now, though, Beck projects as a very effective 3C on a stacked roster, or a 2C on a weak one.
Florian Xhekaj
The importance of cohesiveness
Xhekaj’s selection in the fourth round of this past draft, at 101st overall, rightly raised some eyebrows. After all, it is already rare for an over-ager having produced under half-a-point per game in the OHL (0.37 to be exact) to be drafted at all, let alone just shy of the top 100. He was called a unicorn by the Habs’ scouts, and that explained their wish to jump on him early.
This season, Xhekaj started off strong, with 18 points in 19 games, which is still underwhelming for a draft-plus-two prospect, but definitely a step up from last year. Of late, however, Xhekaj’s production has halted, as he currently sits on a five-game pointless streak. In fact, his production overall this season has been streaky, as he was plagued with a dry spell in early November as well. There are some pointers we can look at to understand why that is.
In short, there is a distinct lack of cohesiveness within Xhekaj’s individual tools.
A significant setback in Xhekaj’s game is the fact that very little happens in conjunction when he plays; he stops moving his feet when receiving passes or when stick-handling, he doesn’t use his physical advantage in conjunction with his footwork to win battles, and he struggles to transition from stick-handling or corralling pucks to passing or shooting smoothly.
Xhekaj’s awareness is certainly a strength in isolation. He gets to the right spots and anticipates them early, reloads above the puck, and is especially sound in his net-front positioning. However, just like his skating and his overall puck skills, it doesn’t gel with the rest of his game. There is very little cohesiveness in his skill set, despite the fact that his tools in isolation are quite strong. The toolkit isn’t there.
As a shooter, Xhekaj has taken big strides since last year. He pulls pucks in between his feet and rifles them with strong weight-transfer mechanics now, which wasn’t truly a part of his skill set last season. Again, his tendency to stop skating to receive passes hinders his ability to transition from reception to release, but overall, the progress in his shooting mindset and his technical abilities is worth mentioning.
The task at hand here is immensely tough. If the Habs accomplish it, and that’s a big “if,” Xhekaj could develop into the unicorn he is believed to be. Only 8% of prospects with a production path similar to Xhekaj’s so far have become NHLers according to Byron Bader’s Hockey Prospecting model, and none have ever become stars. The odds are stacked against the Habs’ 101st-overall pick from 2023, but they also were stacked against his brother, Arber, who has made himself a fan-favourite in Montreal, and will surely do the same after his assignment to Laval. Time will tell with Florian, and patience will be required to see him play this one out.
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