The 2023 NHL Draft was the third and final chance for Luke Mittelstadt to get selected. He wasn’t highly regarded in his original chance in 2021 as a small defenceman with skating issues, and that perception didn’t improve with another preparatory season in the USHL last year.
It probably also didn’t help his case that his brother, Casey, had failed to live up to the projections he had as a teenager, going eighth overall to the Buffalo Sabres in 2017 and then setting a high of just 25 points in his second NHL season and getting no higher over the next three years. If Luke’s standing was tied to his brother’s performance, then it was good for his cause the Casey hit 59 points playing a full 82 games for Buffalo in 2022-23, suggesting that perhaps there’s a late-bloomer gene in the family.
Birthplace: Eden Prairie, Minnesota
Date of birth: January 22, 2003
Shoots: Left
Position: Defence
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 185 lbs.
Team: University of Minnesota
The main reason for the third time being the charm was more likely Luke showing he could carry his offence to the NCAA. Before this year that was a question mark despite his performance in the competitive Minnesota high school system and last year with 55 points in 60 games with the Madison Capitals of the USHL. In his freshman year with the University of Minnesota, he notched 21 points, very respectable for a defenceman, even one needing an extra year to prepare himself.
He had the benefit of playing on a stacked team that has been a destination for many top NHL prospects in recent years. His blue-line mates included Ryan Johnson (31st overall in 2019), Jackson LaCombe (39th in 2019), Brock Faber (45th in 2020), and Ryan Chesley (37th in 2022). With that quality ahead of him, Mittelstadt was eased into NCAA play with lesser minutes and a minor role, taking advantage of that sheltered deployment to help his team.
A plus-22 goal differential in that limited duty is evidence that he could have been given a bit more responsibility, and that will become the case over the final years of his time with Minnesota as those other defencemen either graduate or move on early to professional hockey. That type of slow development is probably what he needs to work on his weaknesses and round out his toolkit, and that’s a path the Montreal Canadiens, who already have a cupboard overflowing with defence prospects, and happy to oblige their newest seventh-round pick in.
Rankings (2021 > 2023)
Dobber Prospects: N/R > N/R
Elite Prospects: #87 > #119
FCHockey: #232 > #131
Hockey Prospect: N/R in Top 75
McKeen’s: N/R > #198
Bob McKenzie (TSN): N/R > N/R
NHL Central Scouting: #98 > #97 (North American skaters)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic) #97 > N/R
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): N/R > N/R
A review of his rankings at the various prospect outlets shows that Mittelstadt has never been seen as a top prospect. His isn’t a case of a highly touted player getting overlooked through a couple of drafts as is true for some players, but simply a player with too many faults to confidently project as an NHL player. The ones who liked him in 2021 still saw some potential in 2023, while others have had him written off from the very beginning.
The most obvious issue from looking at his bio is his size; there just aren’t many 5’11” defencemen in the NHL. Those who have made it are often great skaters, and while you can’t give Mittelstadt’s movement that rating, it is an area he’s been able to improve, which would have been encouraging for a Canadiens development team that works with prospects in that area. It’s fair to say they see even more room for improvement, which would significantly improve his NHL projection.
He’s gotten to where he is with a less-than-perfect stride with intelligent positioning and great vision of the ice. Offence is the expectation, but his defence is also quite strong because he’s usually in the proper spot to prevent a rush or an entry.
Montreal took a fairly similar player last season in Lane Hutson, whose smaller stature is compensated for with exceptional offensive skill. The Habs were rewarded for that decision with a head-turning season from their 2022 second-rounder, and have made an attempt to replicate that scouting win with their final seelction in 2023.
