I will be very upfront with all of you: After the Florida Panthers went up by three goals on Saturday night, I left my office, poured myself a Singleton scotch, and loaded up Tankathon for this exercise. It’s all very simple. I ran the draft lottery 100 times to create a solid sample, and what follows are the results of that simulation testing.
The Montreal Canadiens were starting with the eighth-best odds for each simulation.
Habs Draft Lottery Simulation Results
| Draft Pick | Times landing | Player Chosen |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Overall | 5/100 | Alexis Lafrenière |
| 2nd Overall | 7/100 | Quinton Byfield |
| 3rd Overall | 10/100 | Tim Stützle |
| 8th Overall | 36/100 | Marco Rossi |
| 9th Overall | 33/100 | Anton Lundell |
| 10th Overall | 9/100 | Dawson Mercer |
So with 100 simulations run, and based off of Tankathon’s prospect ranking in their mock draft, the Canadiens’ most likely draft choice in June would be Marco Rossi of the Ottawa 67’s at eighth overall. Trailing just behind Rossi is Finnish centre Anton Lundell of HIFK in Liiga at ninth overall, and a distant third is Adler Mannheim’s Tim Stützle at third overall, who captured major attention at the 2020 World Juniors.
Of course the real prize would be Montreal finding a way to slide into the top spot where they have the chance to draft the incomparable Alexis Lafrenière at the Bell Centre in June (which only happened on five occasions in this project).
Should that not come to pass, Rossi looks to be an incredible consolation, with 110 points to his name and leading the OHL in that regard. With 36 goals and 74 assists, it’s clear that Rossi is a high-end threat, a crucial piece missing in the Canadiens’ rebuild.
Lundell doesn’t project as a major offensive piece, but has the skills to carve out a regular space in one of the top leagues in Europe, and could be ready for the NHL jump sooner than someone like Rossi.
It should be noted, this is not an exact science, and the actual draw will only be run once when the official order is selected. The ranking of the prospects will also change in the following months, so who is available where could be significantly different.
Eyes On The Prize will again be compiling all of the well-regarded and trustworthy draft sources as the NHL Draft approaches. We will revisit this project near the end of the season.
It’s been another tough year for followers of the team, but even in this mess of a season, there will be another intriguing player-brought in at the end of it.
