With an honourable mention to Carey Price, Brendan Gallagher has been the soul of the Montreal Canadiens over the last decade. However, the past two years have not been kind to Gallagher, and as the torch passes to Nick Suzuki, some are questioning whether the now grizzled veteran still has a place on the team. Overlook Gallagher at one’s own peril though, as even during the two worst years of his career, the Edmonton native remains one of the best forwards on the Habs roster.
Whether he knew it or not, Gallagher stepped into Saku Koivu’s skates when he donned the #11 sweater. If ever there was anyone who could follow in Koivu’s mould though, it was the 147th selection in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, who endeared himself to the fans with his dogged tenacity from day one. Although always overshadowed — by P.K. Subban, by Alex Galchenyuk, by Max Pacioretty, or by Shea Weber — the diminutive winger with the heart of a honey badger has been the string tying together the teams of Michel Therrien, Claude Julien, Dominique Ducharme, and now Martin St-Louis.
Gallagher’s defining characteristic has always been his determination, but his ability to generate shots and chances is a close second. The winger didn’t just get by on pure volume though, showing a surprising amount of scoring punch en route to two consecutive 30-goal seasons — and was on pace for a third before COVID-19 truncated the 2019-20 campaign. All this transpired while Gallagher was sitting on a six-year, $3,750,000 per annum contract that ranks among Marc Bergevin’s finest works.
Still, there’s always been a nagging feeling of “how long can this last?” — a notion that the forward would eventually succumb to the twin demands placed on him by his playing style and physical stature. For his first nine seasons, Gallagher was a constant fixture in the Canadiens’ lineup, playing 87% (582/667) of the team’s games. However, the 2021 Stanley Cup run took its toll, and while Gallagher managed to preserve his career unlike Weber, Price, or Paul Byron, the following two seasons were not kind. When the Canadiens’ alternate captain suited up for only 93 games and tallied 15 goals across both campaigns, many felt that the writing was on the wall. Gallagher, once among the greatest bargains in the NHL, was now regarded as an overpriced liability.
It’s important to distinguish injury from decline. Although Gallagher had a tough time staying on the ice, the forward continued to produce when he was able to don the bleu-blanc-et-rouge. In 2021-22, despite losing linemates Tomas Tatar and Phillip Danault, Gallagher still matched his five-on-five assist output from the year prior. Unfortunately, he also suffered what is likely the unluckiest year on record since the advent of expected statistics in hockey when it came to goal-scoring. Mathematically expected to tally 11.9 goals during his 56 games (or 1.09 goals per 60 minutes), Gallagher managed to score … once, resulting in a per 60 value of 0.09.
This bad luck, unsurprisingly, did not extend into the following year. Although Gallagher only played 37 games, he returned to goal-scoring form during that brief time, amassing a 1.08 goals per 60 minutes rate at five-on-five. Not only was this good for a 17.65-goal pace across an 82-game season, it also matched his expected goal output almost on the nose (1.10 ixG/60, 17.98 xG across 82 games). Moreover, it also matched or exceeded every individual season in Gallagher’s career to that point except for four: 2013, the lockout shortened year when the Habs were third in the NHL in goals for, and 2018-21, the heyday of the Tatar-Danault-Gallagher super line.
Unfortunately for optics, Gallagher can’t seem to get his ducks lined up in a row. 2021-22 brought expected assist production but no goals, while 2022-23 brought expected goal production but no assists. However, the potential remains there. Past precedent indicates that a healthy Gallagher, freed from the whims of fate, should be reasonably expected to put up 15 goals and 15 assists at five-on-five over 82 games. Throw in a few power-play points and some four-on-four or three-on-three production, and that’s a 40-point floor and perhaps a 50- to 55-point ceiling.
These numbers are supported by strong underlying metrics, as has been the case with Gallagher for his entire career. Despite dramatic swings in point production over the last three seasons, Montreal’s #11 has remained largely consistent in terms of shots, attempts, and scoring chances.
Most importantly, Montreal currently has no one capable of replacing him. Gallagher ranks first in practically every category when it comes to offensive creation metrics, and still ranked eighth in point production rate among forwards in a very down 2022-23. He also drives play, ranking highly in on-ice shot and chance shares despite a more defensive workload than his peak offensive seasons.
Whether these team ranks are a testament to Gallagher or an indictment of the state of the Canadiens’ forward corps is up to the beholder. Nonetheless, they clearly indicate that Gallagher, even in his current state, remains one of the best options that the Habs have up front — that he is not a passenger, nor dead weight, nor a burden.
There’s no question that Brendan Gallagher is on the downslope of his career trajectory, but he is still just 31 years of age — even if it’s a heavier 31 than many of his peers. With any luck, in time, Gallagher will be passed in ability by the Canadiens’ prospects pool. However, that time has not come yet. At the risk of sounding judgmental, Canadiens fans should be hoping not for Gallagher’s ouster, but that the long-time stalwart is healthy enough to contribute to the team’s continued rebuild.
All statistics sourced from Natural Stat Trick.
