The NHL just completed its first season with 32 teams now that the Seattle Kraken are in the fold. Sixteen teams made it to the post-season, while the other half of the league’s clubs are currently focused on the NHL Draft.
The Montreal Canadiens had the 31st pick last year after losing in the Stanley Cup Final, but ended the 2021-22 season as the first team in history to rank 32nd at the end of the year. It means they weren’t close to returning to the final round of the playoffs, but they are in the best position of all to claim the first overall pick in the upcoming entry draft. The lottery to determine that happens tonight.
How to watch
Start time: 6:30 PM EDT / 3:30 PM PDT
In Canada: Sportsnet (English), TVA Sports (French)
In the USA: ESPN
Streaming: ESPN+, NHL Live, Sportsnet Now
Two lotteries will be conducted today, one for the top pick, and a subsequent one to determine second overall.
As was the case last year, winning a lottery doesn’t jump you right to the top, but instead moves you 10 places up the order. That means only 11 teams have a shot at winning the first pick; if one of the teams with the 12th- to 16th-best odds wins the first lottery, it moves up 10 spots, but the first pick goes to the worst team, which would be Montreal. So while the Canadiens have an 18.5% chance of being the winner of the lottery, their chances of getting the first overall pick are actually 25.5% (their assigned 18.5% plus the total of 7.0% held by the five teams with the lowest odds).
NHL Draft Lottery odds
| Team | Odds of winning lottery | Odds of claiming 1st overall pick |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 18.5% | 25.5% |
| Arizona Coyotes | 13.5% | 13.5% |
| Seattle Kraken | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| New Jersey Devils | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Ottawa Senators | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| San Jose Sharks | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| New York Islanders | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 0.5% | 0.0% |
The lottery for the second overall pick will follow the same procedure, with the winner of the first lottery taken out of the equation and the other 15 teams’ odds adjusted.
Two of the picks in question have already been traded away. The Chicago Blackhawks and Vegas Golden Knights previously sent their picks to the Columbus Blue Jackets and Buffalo Sabres, respectively, but those picks are protected; if the Blackhawks and/or Golder Knights win one of the lotteries, they will part with next year’s first-rounders instead.
Last year, the Buffalo Sabres landed the winning combination for the first overall pick becoming the first team since 2018 to win with the best odds. Habs fans will be hoping for a repeat of that outcome, though in this year of firsts for the organization, perhaps they will be the first team to claim the top pick after another club wins the lottery but from too far back to take the top spot.
Related
Draft profile: David Jiricek
Draft profile: Simon Nemec
Draft profile: Juraj Slafkovsky
Draft profile: Logan Cooley
Draft profile: Shane Wright
Which player would you select with the first overall pick?
| Logan Cooley | 100 |
| David Jiricek | 14 |
| Simon Nemec | 10 |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 79 |
| Shane Wright | 1023 |
| Other (make your case in the comments) | 10 |
Draft Lottery history
The Draft Lottery started in 1995, but until 2015, a team could only move up a maximum of four spots. Because of this, 2022 is only the sixth time Montreal will be eligible to pick first overall.
2005 — This was the Sidney Crosby lottery after the 2004 season was wiped out due to the lockout. All 30 teams were eligible to win the first overall pick, that eventually went to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Canadiens made it all the way to fifth, where they selected goaltender Carey Price.
2012 — The Canadiens entered the lottery with the third-best chance of winning. Edmonton was the #2 seed and ended up winning the lottery. They selected Nail Yakupov. Columbus, who had the best odds, selected Ryan Murray second. The Canadiens selected Alex Galchenyuk third.
2016 — Montreal entered the Auston Matthews lottery with a 5% chance of coming away with the first pick (9th overall). They stayed at ninth and selected Mikhail Sergachev.
2018 — The Canadiens entered the lottery fourth overall with a 9.5% chance of winning the first overall pick. They didn’t win the first overall pick — that went to the Buffalo Sabres, and the second pick went to the Carolina Hurricanes, but Montreal won the lottery for the third overall pick, moving up one spot. They selected Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
2019 — Missing the playoffs by one point, Montreal had just a 0.5% of winning the lottery, the worst of any team. They ended up staying in 15th spot but got a pretty good consolation prize in Cole Caufield.
Jared Book and Matt Drake discussed the lottery in the latest episode of Habsent Minded which you can listen to below or in your podcast platform of choice.
