Opinion

The 2011 Habs Offseason: UFA Forwards

In light of the recent Hal Gill signing and recent debates on how to best construct the Canadiens lineup this season, I've decided to put together an analysis of the current situation in the forward depth chart and who is available on the UFA market.

Most of last year’s forward lineup is either signed or a restricted free agent (RFA), which will probably preclude any major changes to over the off-season.

The current signed lineup looks like this:

Mike Cammalleri (6) – Tomas Plekanec (5) – xxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxx- Scott Gomez (7.3) – Brian Gionta (5)

Travis Moen (1.5) – Lars Eller (1.27) – xxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxx – xxxxxxxxxxx – xxxxxxxxxx

Total (26.11)

I will assume that all RFA’s will be retained and guess their salary for next season.

Mike Cammaleri (6) – Tomas Plekanec (5) – Andrei Kostitsyn (3.25)

Max Pacioretty (1.35) - Scott Gomez (7.3) – Brian Gionta (5)

Benoit Pouliot (1.35) – Lars Eller (1.27) – Travis Moen (1.5)

Tom Pyatt (.55) – David Desharnais – Ryan White (.6)

Total (33.8)

I believe the cap will be raised once more to around $61 to 62 million and that the cap budget for forwards will be around $35 to 38 million. If the cap is raised then there will be room for another $2 to 4 million forward, otherwise there will be room for only another 1-2 depth players.

As it is a thin market for top six forwards, this is not a promising prospect, few are better than internal options. Unless Gomez or Kostitsyn are moved for salary room an upgrade to the current top-six is unlikely and few players available are truly superior to those two. Let’s look at which forwards are pending Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) this summer.

To examine who is available I've compiled a list of the top producing UFA forwards. I've selected 0.35 points per game, a decent number for a third line role, as the threshold for players that might be worthy additions to the top nine.

Forward Free Agents: Per Game Scoring (>.35)

Name	Pos	Age	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	SOG	GPG	APG	PTSPG

Selanne, Teemu "	F	40	ANA	73	31	49	80	6	49	213	0.42	0.67	1.10
Richards, Brad "	F	30	DAL	72	28	49	77	1	24	272	0.39	0.68	1.07
Tanguay, Alex "	F	31	CGY	79	22	47	69	0	24	120	0.28	0.59	0.87
Hejduk, Milan "	F	35	COL	71	22	34	56	-23	18	170	0.31	0.48	0.79
Prospal, Vaclav "	F	36	NYR	29	9	14	23	4	8	61	0.31	0.48	0.79
Jokinen, Jussi "	F	28	CAR	70	19	33	52	3	24	136	0.27	0.47	0.74
Fleischmann, T. "	F	26	COL	45	12	19	31	2	18	98	0.27	0.42	0.69
Leino, Ville "	F	27	PHI	81	19	34	53	14	22	117	0.23	0.42	0.65
Morrison, Brendan "	F	35	CGY	66	9	34	43	13	16	89	0.14	0.52	0.65
Cole, Erik "	F	32	CAR	82	26	26	52	-1	49	201	0.32	0.32	0.63
Gagne, Simon "	F	31	TBL	63	17	23	40	-12	20	154	0.27	0.37	0.63
Connolly, Tim "	F	29	BUF	68	13	29	42	-10	20	151	0.19	0.43	0.62
Vrbata, Radim "	F	29	PHO	79	19	29	48	5	20	240	0.24	0.37	0.61
Stillman, Cory "	F	37	CAR	65	12	27	39	5	24	116	0.18	0.42	0.60
Recchi, Mark "	F	43	BOS	81	14	34	48	13	35	132	0.17	0.42	0.59
Laich, Brooks "	F	27	WAS	82	16	32	48	14	46	207	0.20	0.39	0.59
Brunette, Andrew "	F	37	MIN	82	18	28	46	-7	16	117	0.22	0.34	0.56

Kopecky, Tomas "	F	29	CHI	81	15	27	42	-13	60	178	0.19	0.33	0.52
Ryder, Michael "	F	31	BOS	79	18	23	41	-1	26	165	0.23	0.29	0.52
Samsonov, Sergei "	F	32	FLA	78	13	27	40	-2	14	123	0.17	0.35	0.51
Sullivan, Steve "	F	36	NAS	44	10	12	22	4	28	79	0.23	0.27	0.50
Weight, Doug "	F	40	NYI	18	2	7	9	-3	10	26	0.11	0.39	0.50
Belanger, Eric "	F	33	PHO	82	13	27	40	11	36	127	0.16	0.33	0.49
Miettinen, Antti "	F	30	MIN	73	16	19	35	-3	38	168	0.22	0.26	0.48
Goc, Marcel "	F	27	NAS	51	9	15	24	10	6	111	0.18	0.29	0.47
Dupuis, Pascal "	F	32	PIT	81	17	20	37	16	59	171	0.21	0.25	0.46
Kovalev, Alexei "	F	38	PIT	74	16	18	34	-6	44	151	0.22	0.24	0.46
Langenbrunner, J. "	F	35	DAL	70	9	23	32	-18	45	153	0.13	0.33	0.46
Sturm, Marco "	F	33	WAS	35	5	11	16	6	23	57	0.14	0.31	0.46
Higgins, Chris "	F	27	VAN	62	13	15	28	5	16	160	0.21	0.24	0.45
Darche, Mathieu "	F	34	MTL	59	12	14	26	7	10	90	0.20	0.24	0.44
Arnott, Jason "	F	36	WAS	73	17	14	31	-6	40	169	0.23	0.19	0.42
Upshall, Scottie "	F	27	CLB	82	22	12	34	-7	52	191	0.27	0.15	0.41
Reasoner, Marty "	F	34	FLA	82	14	18	32	2	22	124	0.17	0.22	0.39
Zherdev, Nikolai "	F	26	PHI	56	16	6	22	5	22	135	0.29	0.11	0.39
Larose, Chad "	F	29	CAR	82	16	15	31	-21	59	176	0.20	0.18	0.38
Fedotenko, Ruslan "	F	32	NYR	66	10	15	25	9	25	120	0.15	0.23	0.38
Modano, Mike "	F	40	DET	40	4	11	15	-4	8	79	0.10	0.28	0.38
Handzus, Michal "	F	34	LAK	82	12	18	30	-5	20	94	0.15	0.22	0.37
Frolov, Alexander "	F	28	NYR	43	7	9	16	4	8	78	0.16	0.21	0.37
Wellwood, Kyle "	F	27	SAN	35	5	8	13	10	0	50	0.14	0.23	0.37

There are many teams looking to upgrade their forwards and not many impact UFAs. Many of the remaining will be resigned by their current team. Therefore the remaining players are apt to go at a premium this summer, suggesting that there will be little value for money at the top. Thus, the best players are likely to be priced out of the Habs market.

Meanwhile, the roles of the lesser players are best filled internally as Montreal has a few good options there (like re-signing Darche and/or Jeff Halpern). Therefore I look to the middle market for players that might be useful additions to the top 9.

Quite a few free agents are unlikely to be options for the Habs this summer, such as Selanne, who probably wouldn't leave Anaheim, or Richards who would be priced out of the Habs market. A look at players I think have a decent likelihood to hit open market.

Forward Free Agents: Per Game Scoring (>.35) That Might Hit Open Market

Name	Pos	Age	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	SOG	GPG	APG	PTSPG

Richards, Brad "	F	30	DAL	72	28	49	77	1	24	272	0.39	0.68	1.07

Prospal, Vaclav "	F	36	NYR	29	9	14	23	4	8	61	0.31	0.48	0.79

Jokinen, Jussi "	F	28	CAR	70	19	33	52	3	24	136	0.27	0.47	0.74
Fleischmann, T. "	F	26	COL	45	12	19	31	2	18	98	0.27	0.42	0.69
Morrison, Brendan "	F	35	CGY	66	9	34	43	13	16	89	0.14	0.52	0.65
Gagne, Simon "	F	31	TBL	63	17	23	40	-12	20	154	0.27	0.37	0.63
Connolly, Tim "	F	29	BUF	68	13	29	42	-10	20	151	0.19	0.43	0.62
Vrbata, Radim "	F	29	PHO	79	19	29	48	5	20	240	0.24	0.37	0.61
Stillman, Cory "	F	37	CAR	65	12	27	39	5	24	116	0.18	0.42	0.60
Recchi, Mark "	F	43	BOS	81	14	34	48	13	35	132	0.17	0.42	0.59
Laich, Brooks "	F	27	WAS	82	16	32	48	14	46	207	0.20	0.39	0.59
Brunette, Andrew "	F	37	MIN	82	18	28	46	-7	16	117	0.22	0.34	0.56
Kopecky, Tomas "	F	29	CHI	81	15	27	42	-13	60	178	0.19	0.33	0.52
Ryder, Michael "	F	31	BOS	79	18	23	41	-1	26	165	0.23	0.29	0.52
Samsonov, Sergei "	F	32	FLA	78	13	27	40	-2	14	123	0.17	0.35	0.51
Sullivan, Steve "	F	36	NAS	44	10	12	22	4	28	79	0.23	0.27	0.50
Belanger, Eric "	F	33	PHO	82	13	27	40	11	36	127	0.16	0.33	0.49
Miettinen, Antti "	F	30	MIN	73	16	19	35	-3	38	168	0.22	0.26	0.48
Goc, Marcel "	F	27	NAS	51	9	15	24	10	6	111	0.18	0.29	0.47
Dupuis, Pascal "	F	32	PIT	81	17	20	37	16	59	171	0.21	0.25	0.46
Kovalev, Alexei "	F	38	PIT	74	16	18	34	-6	44	151	0.22	0.24	0.46
Langenbrunner, J. "	F	35	DAL	70	9	23	32	-18	45	153	0.13	0.33	0.46
Sturm, Marco "	F	33	WAS	35	5	11	16	6	23	57	0.14	0.31	0.46
Higgins, Chris "	F	27	VAN	62	13	15	28	5	16	160	0.21	0.24	0.45
Darche, Mathieu "	F	34	MTL	59	12	14	26	7	10	90	0.20	0.24	0.44
Arnott, Jason "	F	36	WAS	73	17	14	31	-6	40	169	0.23	0.19	0.42
Upshall, Scottie "	F	27	CLB	82	22	12	34	-7	52	191	0.27	0.15	0.41
Reasoner, Marty "	F	34	FLA	82	14	18	32	2	22	124	0.17	0.22	0.39
Zherdev, Nikolai "	F	26	PHI	56	16	6	22	5	22	135	0.29	0.11	0.39
Larose, Chad "	F	29	CAR	82	16	15	31	-21	59	176	0.20	0.18	0.38
Fedotenko, Ruslan "	F	32	NYR	66	10	15	25	9	25	120	0.15	0.23	0.38
Handzus, Michal "	F	34	LAK	82	12	18	30	-5	20	94	0.15	0.22	0.37
Wellwood, Kyle "	F	27	SAN	35	5	8	13	10	0	50	0.14	0.23	0.37
Torres, Raffi "	F	29	VAN	80	14	15	29	4	78	115	0.17	0.19	0.36
Ward, Joel "	F	30	NAS	80	10	19	29	-1	42	157	0.13	0.24	0.36
Bergenheim, Sean "	F	27	TBL	80	14	15	29	0	56	182	0.17	0.19	0.36

Clear cut top-six players are rare in this market, if Montreal is looking to add another winger I'd suggest it is down to Jokinen, Fleichmann, Gagne, Vrbata and Laich as legitimate options. If none of these are available at a reasonable price and look to be a good fit for the team, I'd suggest the Habs are better off standing pat on top-six forwards.

Personally, unless Gagne or Laich is interested in coming for reasonable dollars ($4 million or less) I think the current top six group is good enough to make the playoffs and if an upgrade is warranted, it should be revisited at the trade deadline.

If there is no major acquisition then there is certainly space and available players to make an addition to the third line. For a third line role, players like Upshall or ex-Hab Higgins or MInnesota's Miettinen might be worthy pickups to improve the forward depth and give better options for the bottom 6 centers to work with.

Trades are another option for improving the top nine, but as I, like all fans, lack the knowledge of who is available for what price on that market, I cannot make a meaningful analysis of the options there.

Numbers courtesy of capgeek.com

edit: removed Glencross

The 2011 Habs Offseason: UFA Forwards

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