Since the off-season started, it was expected the Montreal Canadiens were primed to make a splash and add a top-six forward. The names were out there, from Trevor Zegras to Martin Necas to Rutger McGroarty, and finally, Patrik Laine.
Up until last week, all of them were still in play (although Necas’s new contract signed earlier in the summer took away some of the urgency surrounding a move). A day after Laine was moved, McGroarty was moved as well. A few days later, Yaroslav Askarov was moved and it was rumoured the Canadiens showed interest in him too.
Basically, if there is a player in his early-to-mid 20s being moved, the Canadiens will be linked. Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton have shown they aren’t scared to make moves, and they have the assets to pull it off.
While adding a player like McGroarty or Askarov would have improved the Canadiens organization, neither would have provided what Laine does. Since 2021-22, the Canadiens are the fifth-lowest scoring team in the NHL, with 677 goals (2.75 per game).
The move, especially given Laine’s cap hit, is not without risk. However, it’s one without much consequence. The Canadiens still have enough flexibility this coming season under the salary cap. With Carey Price on long-term injured reserve, they have over $8 million of his salary to use. This is a conservative estimate. They might even have more space if they make roster moves at the beginning of the season to maximize their LTIR relief.
Next season, on the surface, might be more of a concern with the extensions to Juraj Slafkovský and Kaiden Guhle kicking in. However, they also have a significant amount coming off their cap. To offset the $19.95M increase from Slafkovský, Guhle, and adding Laine, they will be losing $15.65 in retained salaries (Jeff Petry and Jake Allen) and unrestricted free agents (David Savard, Christian Dvorak, and Joel Armia). They also have no significant players to re-sign, and the cap is expected to go up from the $88M it currently sits at for 2024-25.
Quite simply, this doesn’t cost the Canadiens any flexibility, nor put them in a bad situation. Laine might be overpaid for what he is expected to produce, but he will outproduce cap space. We also must remember that the actual cost in this trade accounted for this. They only gave up Jordan Harris and also acquired a second-round pick. Jordan Harris is a good, young NHL defender, but the Canadiens have enough depth to offset his departure while adding to a position of need.
Now with the acknowledgment that being in the lineup is important, Laine’s lack of production has been greatly exaggerated.
Laine burst on the scene scoring 36 goals as a rookie with the Winnipeg Jets, months after being the second overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft. He had 80 goals through his first two NHL seasons, which was more than Auston Matthews. Even adjusted for goals-per-game, it was essentially a tie with Laine slightly ahead. Now, Matthews has established himself as one of the best goal scorers in the NHL, and Laine is basically seen as a reclamation project. It’s worth remembering just how good Laine was at putting the puck in the net.
At only 26, Laine is seen as a player whose best days are behind him. A closer look show that Laine’s production is not as bad as it appears because of one key factor: games played. In his third season, he scored 30 goals in 82 games. In the five seasons since then, his goals scored seem to have taken a hit. He has averaged 18.8 goals per season. Adjusted to 82 games, however, his totals show a 30 goal pace. The exact same pace he scored at the season before the five-year sample.
Laine instantly gives the Canadiens another pure goal scoring option to go along with Cole Caufield, and the emerging talents they have in Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovský. With Ivan Demidov likely to join the fold in 2025-26, it provides the Canadiens with more offensive firepower than they have had in many fans’ lifetimes.
The expectations are somewhat tempered for Laine. No one is expecting him to come in and score 40 goals. He provides the Canadiens with an additional option in the top six and the power play, allowing Martin St-Louis to spread the offence around. He’s a perfect age fit and skill fit for the roster, and while his cap hit is an outlier among the team’s core, it’s a risk they can take. Even 20 goals would be more than cap space has scored over the last few seasons.
The Canadiens are expected to play meaningful games in March and April, and the Laine acquisition gives them a better chance of doing just that. The rebuild isn’t over just yet, but most of the key pieces are in place and it’s time for the on-ice results to reflect that.
