How quickly moods can change in the playoffs.
There had been some frustration simmering in the background with Laine this season, but from what I could tell, the majority of fans understood going in that Laine was available for the price the Canadiens paid because he is a flawed player, and it’s clear that the knee injury took a piece out of him this year as well.
Through that initial lens of expectation, Laine has been a golden god for most fans of the Montreal Canadiens this season while scoring 20 goals in just 52 games, despite playing the entire season without a centre capable of utilizing his skill set.
Laine has what so few in sports have: that perfect touch. Whether it’s a natural ability or the result of years of honed focus, when his shot is firing it just finds net. That has value on a team with as little high-end scoring punch as the Canadiens have. They racked up 12 different forwards with at least 10 goals, but outside of Laine only Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki are threats to score every game.
Players like Laine who are undeniably elite in an important area but flawed in others can be floated on great teams. The Canadiens aren’t a great team yet, and despite how hard Alex Newhook is skating, he and Laine haven’t meshed. Laine doesn’t have the support structure to play with necessary to excel.
Without that in place, he is going to be especially exposed when his shot is off, and whether he’s injured in a way that’s hurting his shot or not, it’s off. If that is the case, the decision should be an easy one to make for Martin St-Louis for Game 3. If that’s not the issue, it’s a bit more complex. Personally, I’m not as concerned about Laine not scoring. He’s streaky, and it’s not just the playoffs; he’s only scored once in his last 11 games. That could flip on a dime if he’s not too hurt.
What does concern me is Laine’s level of engagement on plays. Watching him closely, he’s not always making a poor choice on the first play he makes either for or with the puck, but once he makes the play, he relaxes for a moment and continually gets caught, for instance, making a nice pass interception on the power play only to misplay the puck and cause a short-handed two-on-one break against. The right idea is there, but there’s a lack of follow-through.
While the sample size is small and by no means dooms Laine to this level of performance, his engagement level is a big reason why the numbers under the hood in this series don’t look good.
Laine has the second-lowest on-ice shot-attempt differential on the team at 40.5%, and the worst on-ice expected-goals-for differential on the team at 11.6%. He’s the only player on the roster to not be on the ice for a high-danger scoring chance for the Canadiens at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick, while the Washington Capitals have racked up 11 against him.
That’s not all on Laine, there are always other players on the ice, but he has been the biggest contributor to those poor indicators.
Trickle-down struggles
Clearly, St-Louis noticed that Laine’s fumbles created a few more Capitals chances as he shook things up and shortened the bench in Game 2. The most notable move was that Ivan Demidov was elevated instead of benched.
In Game 1, I thought Demidov had a bit of a deer-in-the-headlights aspect to his game, surprised by the pace of play. That wasn’t the case by Game 2. However, things with Laine aren’t working, and (again tiny sample size) the numbers match the eye test.
Demidov is clearly still figuring it out at the NHL level, but so far he hasn’t meshed with Laine, and despite Laine having superstar-level shooting skill, it isn’t going to help if you’re always defending. When Demidov was bumped up beside Jake Evans, suddenly plays were being created, and scoring chances were appearing. Sometimes intensity does outweigh talent.
What to do with Laine, then?
Laine’s number-one area of impact is on the power play, and considering how few of those are being given out, his utility has become limited in this series. If Laine is injured, it’s an easy decision to let him rest, and bring in Oliver Kapanen.
However, I would argue that even if Laine isn’t hurt enough to justify sitting, taking a game to focus and get fully engaged wouldn’t hurt. Laine could play Game 3 and score a hat trick, that’s the kind of feat he’s capable of, however in the playoffs you can’t afford to roll the dice as often when the consequences for not hitting six are so severe.
That doesn’t mean I want Laine off the Montreal Canadiens. It doesn’t even mean I don’t think he should play again in this series. I think Laine has meshed well on this team and hope he plays a full, healthy year next season. Right now, however, he’s not playing well enough. Add to the equation that while Kapanen hasn’t been a reliable scoring option at the NHL level, he does bring two components that Laine has not been able to: speed and physical engagement.
I do worry about Kapanen’s work along the boards, he really struggled to win battles in the regular season and looked much better in open ice, but Laine’s not exactly winning board battles right now either, so it’s not adding a weakness to the lineup. I can see an Emil Heineman – Kapanen – Joel Armia line that’s encouraged to play fast, responsible, and physical being quite effective, which would allow St-Louis to keep Demidov with Evans and Alex Newhook.
It might be time for Laine to sit, but we don’t have to be dramatic about it.
Andrew Berkshire is the former managing editor of Eyes on the Prize, and the founder of Game Over Network Inc. A Canadian, employee-owned sports media startup focused on platforming young creators across the country. Find Andrew live on YouTube after Habs games with Game Over Montreal, where you can also find Marc Dumont, Kay Imam, and Conor Tomalty to bring you interactive postgame analysis. You can join the Game Over Network’s Discord, and support us on Patreon as we employ over 30 young sports journalists and analysts across Canada’s seven NHL markets.
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