Introduction
Oliver Kapanen has featured on the list on three previous occasions, entering the list at 16th in 2021, dropping to 25th in 2022, and ending up just off the official list at 26 in 2023. This year he slots in closer to that lofty debut, at 19th.
The Montreal Canadiens were aware that it would be a longer development path for Kapanen when they drafted the centre in the 2021 NHL Draft. Kapanen — a name of hockey royalty in Finland — has played in KalPa thoughout his career, except for a few games when he has been on loan. That will change for the 2024-25 season as Kapanen will either play for the Montreal Canadiens in the NHL or Timrå IK in the SHL. The move comes after a successful second half of the season in Liiga when Kapanen was instrumental in KalPa’s run to the semifinals before being stopped by Tappara.
Last season started out slowly due to having completed his mandatory National Service in Finland during the summer of 2023. This meant that he missed the pre-season and a lot of on-ice practice. It looked as though he hadn’t been able to maintain his form from the previous season. This all changed around Christmas as he was paired up with Juuso Mäenpää and Matyas Kantner, forming the first line for KalPa at the end of the season.
Kapanen’s 34 points (14G, 20A) over 52 games were nothing spectacular for Liiga as he finished 51st in scoring. The playoff numbers were a different story. His 14 points (7G, 7A) in 13 games had him finish third in points, tied with the first-place Anton Levtchi of Tappara who had more goals, but played more games.
The second half of the season caught the eye of Jukka Jalonen, Finland’s national team coach, and Kapanen was selected to go to the World Championship. He made a splash with six goals in eight games. While it made people take notice, he scored three goals in an 8-0 game against Great Britain, two goals in a 4-1 win over Norway, and the last goals came in the 3-2 loss versus Austria.
Voting
Kapanen is the first player to be unanimously placed inside the Top 25. He has a high vote of 16 and a low vote of 25. Only 0.2 points separate him from the previous centre prospect, Filip Mešár, in the rankings.
Most votes came in between 14 and 25, and the tail isn’t as pronounced as the tier behind Kapanen and Mešár. They’re more well-known, giving them a clear edge in the rankings. Some voters were also more comfortable slotting the 6’1″ Kapanen into higher ranks, which wasn’t the case for the 20th-ranked player.
Top 25 Under 25 History
| 2023: #26 | 2022: #25 | 2021: #16 |
History of #19
| Year | #19 |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Riley Kidney |
| 2022 | Jan Mysak |
| 2021 | Joël Teasdale |
| 2020 | Cam Hillis |
| 2019 | Jacob Olofsson |
| 2018 | Kerby Rychel |
| 2017 | Jeremiah Addison |
| 2016 | Victor Mete |
| 2015 | Daniel Audette |
| 2014 | Zachary Fucale |
| 2013 | Christian Thomas |
| 2012 | Patrick Holland |
| 2011 | Magnus Nygren |
| 2010 | David Desharnais |
Strengths
Hockey IQ is strong in his family. Grandfather Hannu, father Kimmo, uncle Sami, and even great uncle Jari played at the highest level in Finnish ice hockey. Add to this his cousins Kasperi and Konsta, and you understand what the topic of discussion is at family gatherings.
You can put Oliver on the ice in any situation and expect him to, at worst, do a very good job. He was used in all special teams and five-on-five situations with KalPa and should really have the same usage going forward in his career. He sees the ice well and he can process the game at a high pace. He uses his size on the forecheck and in defensive situations where his reach, along with his positioning, covers a lot of passing lanes.
He has good hand-eye coordination, which is evident in the way he scores his goals: from in close where he excels at tip-ins, deflections, snapshots, and rebounds.
Weaknesses
Kapanen’s streakiness has always been a problem, until it sort of settled down at the end of last season in Finland’s domestic league. However, the same streakiness became evident in the World Championship when he scored against bottom feeders while not producing versus teams at a higher level. The consistency to do it every night, against every level of competition, is what needs to be corrected in order to become a regular NHL player.
His skating has become better after filling out his body, but it wouldn’t hurt him to have a bit longer stride as it would help his acceleration and make his movement a bit more cost efficient.
Projection
Kapanen will be in a better league than Liiga for the 2024-25 season, either the NHL or the SHL with Timrå. With Rafaël Harvey-Pinard’s injury, there is a roster spot with the Montreal Canadiens open, and I can see Kapanen being one of the top challengers for that spot. With his hockey sense, he doesn’t need to be played in a top-six role to succeed. He can do the dirty work and do a very good job even at the NHL level. But would he be able to get that consistency in his scoring that he has struggled with for so long, or would he be locked in as a defensive specialist for the foreseeable future if this was to become the case?
If he goes back to Europe, one will have to look for other aspects of the game. Consistency in the offensive zone is something that he needs to develop. He should get a top-six role in Timrå, with power-play time to support at least the same level of production even in a better league. He would need to show that he can get things done on a cold snowy Thursday night in Skellefteå and follow it up with an equally strong performance on Saturday in Karlstad. He needs to do it all through the year, building on that impressive end to the Liiga season.
Kapanen has all the tools to become a regular NHL player, and I think he will. Montreal has exercised patience with his development, something that should be applauded. The question is if they can exercise the same patience when there is a hole in the lineup that Kapanen can fill, knowing there’s the possibility of hindering his offensive development for the long term by doing so.
Lassi Alanen of Elite Prospects joins the podcast to talk about Oliver Kapanen’s strong season.
Timestamps:
2:00 – Oliver Kapanen’s 2024/25 season.
8:00 – NHL or SHL next season?
10:30 – Kapanen’s strengths
13:15 – Kapanen’s weakness
17:00 – NHL projection?
18:50 – Commercial Break
19:00 – Aatos Koivu
25:00 – Lassi’s European League Ranking
