When it comes to draft-day deals, Kent Hughes has gone four-for-four. And the fourth is his biggest move by far.
Hours before the 2025 NHL Entry Draft was scheduled to kick off, the Canadiens’ general manager acquired restricted free agent Noah Dobson from the New York Islanders. Furthermore, Hughes was able to ink the 25-year-old Prince Edward Islander to an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $9.5 million, considerably under the $10- or $11-million values that had been bandied about.
A significant move naturally invites significant scrutiny, and the spotlight on Dobson has grown in intensity because the young defenceman had been the subject of trade rumours since February. Moreover, young players with Dobson’s track record do not typically become available — especially not those who fill a premium role such as a right-handed defenceman.
The knock on Dobson is that he is defensively unreliable, and a downturn in his offensive production made him expendable, or at minimum not worth the large contract that he would command. However, high-visibility mistakes may be masking Dobson’s actual defensive prowess, as well as the considerable strides that he made in improving his defensive game in 2024-25.
Delving into the stats, Dobson’s numbers were markedly better than the team average in every category. He is a full five percent better in shot-attempt share (CF%) and expected-goal share (xGF%). For context, the gap between first and last overall in GF% was about 18%, so five points amounts to roughly a quartile. He is also ahead by five percent or greater in scoring-chance share (SCF%) and high-danger-chance share (HDCF%). These underlying numbers are even better than what he posted in 2023-24, when he leapt onto the radar with a 70-point season.
More encouragingly from the Canadiens’ perspective is that Dobson’s improved numbers come from better defensive metrics rather than offensive ones. He is considerably better than team average when it comes to shot attempts allowed (CA/60) and scoring chances allowed (SCA/60). He is moderately better than team average when it comes to shots allowed (SA/60) and high-danger chances allowed (HDCA/60). Further, 2024-25 represented career bests in all four categories if one discounts his abbreviated rookie campaign in 2019-20.
So why is Dobson no longer an Islander?
Aside from apparent fit issues with Patrick Roy’s scheme, the severity of Dobson’s errors may be magnified by the common perception that the Islanders play tight defensively. However, this is outdated. The Islanders finished 18th and 20th in the league in goals allowed, respectively, over the last two years. They are 22nd and 18th, respectively, in expected goals allowed over the same timeframe. All this despite superlative goaltending from Ilya Sorokin, who is eighth in the league over that span in goals saved above average.
Dobson, in particular, may have been a victim of what happens when a weak team no longer receives stellar netminding. A 54.34 xGF% (over 904 minutes) at five-on-five with Sorokin in goal translated to a +9 actual goal differential, but a 54.43 xGF% (over 394 minutes) with Semyon Varlamov or Marcus Högberg between the pipes became a -7. Furthermore, the Islanders do not score very much, ranking 22nd and 28th in the last two seasons. This exacerbates the impact of any on-ice mistakes, turning every error into an example of “unclutchness”.
No one is saying that Noah Dobson is Nicklas Lidström, but he is far from a complete liability in the defensive zone. To offer another comparison, Dobson’s metrics relative to his team were roughly the same as Lane Hutson’s relative to the Canadiens’ averages. One player appears to have simply played with better finishers and received better goaltending.
