clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

EOTP’s 2018 Consensus NHL Draft Rankings

New, comments

We used 14 sources to come up with an ultimate ranking of the prospects

2017 NHL Draft - Rounds 2-7 Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The NHL Entry Draft begins on Friday, and EOTP has been keeping track of most of the rankings to come out ahead of the draft.

Some rankings have more correlation to how the draft will unfold than others, and no rankings are perfect so we combined 14 of the most respected draft rankings and used the average of them to get our own rankings.

This is our second year doing this. Last year out of the top 151 (there was a tie for 150th), 121 were drafted (80.1%). Out of the top 100, 98 were drafted. Only #85 Artyom Minulin and #97 Kirill Slepets were not selected.

The correlation of the rankings (315 players ranked) to actual draft position was 0.75. This year, there are a few things done to improve that.

The sources used:

Bob McKenzie (TSN, ranked 93)
Craig Button (TSN, ranked 100)
HockeyProspect.com (ranked 217)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic, ranked 74 skaters)
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic, ranked 100)
ISSHockey.com (ranked 180 skaters)
FutureConsiderations.ca (ranked 300)
Chris Peter (ESPN, ranked 80)
Prospect Fanatic’s Draft Software (ranked 200)
Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects, ranked 130)
Canucks Army (ranked 100)
Crossbarr Consulting (ranked 100)
McKeensHockey.com (ranked 217 plus honourable mentions - see below)
The Hockey News (ranked 120)

All of these rankings did not rank the same number of players. And not every player was ranked by each source. This offered a challenge to normalize the rankings.

To make things truly representative, players who were not ranked by a system were given the last ranking of the source+10. This ensured that a player not ranked did not benefit more than a player ranked low.

(By making it +10 instead of +1, it actually helped the correlation of the rankings. We used +1 last year.)

As an example, Bob McKenzie ranked 93 players. Those not ranked by McKenzie received a ranking of 103. HockeyProspect ranked 217 players. Those not ranked were given 227, and so on.

There are two exceptions. Future Considerations ranked 300 players. Because they ranked so many more players than other sources, it skewed the rankings too much for players they did and didn’t rank. Therefore, players not ranked received a rank of 305 instead of 310. McKeen’s ranked 217 players. They also had 83 honourable mentions. Because honourable mentions are not quantifiable in an average, players who were honourable mentions received a rank of 230. Those who were not mentioned at all received a rank of 250.

Three sources (Corey Pronman, ISS, and Crossbarr Consulting) ranked goaltenders separately. Those separate rankings were not used in the average. Goaltenders had their averages based on 11 sources rather than 14.

The “Drop Off” column shows the difference in average between the person immediately above them in the rankings. This is useful to create groups of similarly ranked players.

You will see the averages get close together as you approach the bottom. That is because many of those players were not ranked by several sources, meaning the averages tended to be more equal.

The “Variance” column shows the difference between the player’s highest ranking and their lowest one. As an example, Rasmus Dahlin and Andrei Svechnikov received all the same rating so their variance is 0. Filip Zadina received a high of 3 and low of 5, so his variance is ‘2’.

This year there was little question as to who the top prospect and second-ranked prospects were. But the rest of the top-10 is very close together. The gap between third and 10th is actually smaller than it was a year ago.

At third overall, the consensus pick would be Filip Zadina. However, Quinn Hughes, Brady Tkachuk and Oliver Wahlstrom are all close with Adam Boqvist and Jesperi Kotkaniemi close behind.

What hurts Kotkaniemi is the variance in his rankings. The 15 spots between his best (#3) and worst (#18) rankings is the highest among the top 10 in the draft, tied with Noah Dobson who is behind him.

The draft has a significant drop off after the 10th player. In fact the drop from 10 to 11 is bigger than any drop in the two years we have done the ranking. Other significant drops occur between 29 and 30, 43 and 44, and around the 53 range.

The small drops are significant but the draft still has a lot of depth well into the third round and even some third round prospects have first round grades among them.

Below are the Top 150 ranked players. In all, there are 264 players with an official ranking (for a ranking to be “official”, they needed to be ranked by at least two of the 14 sources.) The Montreal Canadiens have, for the moment, picks 3, 35, 38, 56, 62, 66, 97, 102, 122, 128.

For more information on prospects, be sure to check out our prospect profiles here.

2018 EOTP Consensus Draft Rankings

RK NAME HT WT POS TEAM LEAGUE AVG DROP OFF VARIANCE
RK NAME HT WT POS TEAM LEAGUE AVG DROP OFF VARIANCE
1 DAHLIN, RASMUS 6' 2" 181 DEFENSEMAN FROLUNDA SWEDEN 1.00 NA 0
2 SVECHNIKOV, ANDREI 6' 2" 188 RIGHT WING BARRIE OHL 2.00 1.00 0
3 ZADINA, FILIP 6' 0" 195 RIGHT WING HALIFAX QMJHL 3.57 1.57 2
4 HUGHES, QUINTIN 5' 10" 170 DEFENSEMAN MICHIGAN BIG10 5.64 2.07 6
5 TKACHUK, BRADY 6' 3" 196 LEFT WING BOSTON UNIVERSITY H-EAST 6.14 0.50 9
6 WAHLSTROM, OLIVER 6' 1" 205 RIGHT WING USA U-18 NTDP 6.50 0.36 7
7 BOQVIST, ADAM 5' 11" 168 DEFENSEMAN BRYNAS JR. SWEDEN-JR. 8.14 1.64 8
8 KOTKANIEMI, JESPERI 6' 2" 188 CENTER ASSAT FINLAND 8.71 0.57 15
9 DOBSON, NOAH 6' 3" 180 DEFENSEMAN ACADIE-BATHURST QMJHL 9.00 0.29 15
10 BOUCHARD, EVAN 6' 2" 193 DEFENSEMAN LONDON OHL 9.43 0.43 11
11 SMITH, TY 5' 10" 175 DEFENSEMAN SPOKANE WHL 14.21 4.79 14
12 FARABEE, JOEL 6' 0" 164 LEFT WING USA U-18 NTDP 14.50 0.29 17
13 HAYTON, BARRETT 6' 1" 190 CENTER SAULT STE. MARIE OHL 15.79 1.29 17
14 VELENO, JOSEPH 6' 1" 193 CENTER DRUMMONDVILLE QMJHL 15.86 0.07 27
15 KRAVTSOV, VITALI 6' 2" 170 RIGHT WING CHELYABINSK RUSSIA 18.29 2.43 30
16 KUPARI, RASMUS 6' 1" 183 CENTER KARPAT FINLAND 18.71 0.43 15
17 LUNDESTROM, ISAC 6' 0" 185 CENTER LULEA SWEDEN 20.79 2.07 23
18 DENISENKO, GRIGORI 5' 11" 176 LEFT WING YAROSLAVL 2 RUSSIA-JR. 21.14 0.36 41
19 BOKK, DOMINIK 6' 1" 180 RIGHT WING VAXJO JR. SWEDEN-JR. 22.86 1.71 25
20 WILDE, BODE 6' 2" 195 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 23.36 0.50 26
21 NOEL, SERRON 6' 5" 205 RIGHT WING OSHAWA OHL 23.64 0.29 26
22 THOMAS, AKIL 6' 0" 171 CENTER NIAGARA OHL 23.86 0.21 20
23 KAUT, MARTIN 6' 2" 176 RIGHT WING PARDUBICE CZREP 24.14 0.29 34
24 BERGGREN, JONATAN 5' 10" 181 RIGHT WING SKELLEFTEA JR. SWEDEN-JR. 25.86 1.71 31
25 MILLER, K'ANDRE 6' 3" 206 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 26.29 0.43 43
26 SANDIN, RASMUS 5' 11" 184 DEFENSEMAN SAULT STE. MARIE OHL 28.36 2.07 30
27 MCLEOD, RYAN 6' 2" 203 CENTER MISSISSAUGA OHL 30.00 1.64 27
28 MERKLEY, RYAN 5' 11" 170 DEFENSEMAN GUELPH OHL 30.43 0.43 60
29 DELLANDREA, TY 6' 0" 185 CENTER FLINT OHL 30.50 0.07 32
30 OLOFSSON, JACOB 6' 2" 192 CENTER TIMRA SWEDEN-2 34.71 4.21 24
31 MCISAAC, JARED 6' 1" 196 DEFENSEMAN HALIFAX QMJHL 35.14 0.43 41
32 HALLANDER, FILIP 5' 11" 176 CENTER TIMRA SWEDEN-2 37.21 2.07 41
33 TYCHONICK, JONATHAN 6' 0" 173 DEFENSEMAN PENTICTON BCHL 38.43 1.21 37
34 ADDISON, CALEN 5' 10" 180 DEFENSEMAN LETHBRIDGE WHL 38.64 0.21 31
35 ALEXEYEV, ALEXANDER 6' 3" 200 DEFENSEMAN RED DEER WHL 38.86 0.21 44
36 LUNDKVIST, NILS 5' 11" 180 DEFENSEMAN LULEA SWEDEN 40.71 1.86 57
37 SAMUELSSON, MATTIAS 6' 4" 217 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 42.86 2.14 67
38 WISE, JAKE 5' 10" 189 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 43.86 1.00 70
39 FOUDY, LIAM 6' 0" 175 CENTER LONDON OHL 44.14 0.29 55
40 YLONEN, JESSE 6' 0" 167 RIGHT WING ESPOO FINLAND-2 44.86 0.71 70
41 BEAUDIN, NICOLAS 5' 10" 175 DEFENSEMAN DRUMMONDVILLE QMJHL 46.43 1.57 63
42 MCBAIN, JACK 6' 3" 197 CENTER TORONTO JC OJHL 46.71 0.29 38
43 MARCHENKO, KIRILL 6' 3" 187 RIGHT WING KHANTY-MANSIYSK 2 RUSSIA-JR. 47.36 0.64 92
44 WOO, JETT 6' 0" 205 DEFENSEMAN MOOSE JAW WHL 50.57 3.21 63
T GROULX, BENOIT-OLIVIER 6' 1" 195 CENTER HALIFAX QMJHL 50.57 0.00 62
46 GUSTAFSSON, DAVID 6' 2" 196 CENTER HV 71 SWEDEN 51.71 1.14 87
47 NORDGREN, NIKLAS 5' 9" 169 RIGHT WING HIFK JR. FINLAND-JR. 52.21 0.50 63
48 BERNARD-DOCKER, JACOB 6' 0" 181 DEFENSEMAN OKOTOKS AJHL 52.57 0.36 85
T GINNING, ADAM 6' 3" 196 DEFENSEMAN LINKOPING SWEDEN 52.57 0.00 67
50 MCSHANE, ALLAN 5' 11" 185 CENTER OSHAWA OHL 53.50 0.93 70
51 O'BRIEN, JAY 5' 10" 185 CENTER THAYER ACADEMY HIGH-MA 53.57 0.07 86
52 LAUKO, JAKUB 6' 0" 169 CENTER CHOMUTOV CZREP 54.29 0.71 56
53 DRURY, JACK 5' 11" 175 CENTER WATERLOO USHL 57.43 3.14 49
54 MCLAUGHLIN, BLAKE 6' 0" 162 LEFT WING CHICAGO USHL 58.43 1.00 59
55 HILLIS, CAMERON 5' 10" 168 CENTER GUELPH OHL 62.50 4.07 118
56 MOROZOV, IVAN 6' 1" 178 CENTER KHANTY-MANSIYSK 2 RUSSIA-JR. 64.43 1.93 74
57 ERIKSSON, ALBIN 6' 4" 207 RIGHT WING SKELLEFTEA JR. SWEDEN-JR. 65.29 0.86 93
58 RANTA, SAMPO 6' 2" 190 LEFT WING SIOUX CITY USHL 67.36 2.07 80
59 BAHL, KEVIN 6' 6" 230 DEFENSEMAN OTTAWA OHL 67.57 0.21 76
60 JOHANSSON, FILIP 6' 0" 174 DEFENSEMAN LEKSAND JR. SWEDEN-JR. 69.71 2.14 72
61 KURASHEV, PHILIPP 6' 0" 190 CENTER QUEBEC QMJHL 70.86 1.14 73
62 KHOVANOV, ALEXANDER 5' 11" 196 CENTER MONCTON QMJHL 71.00 0.14 66
63 DEMIN, STANISLAV 6' 2" 190 DEFENSEMAN WENATCHEE BCHL 72.29 1.29 64
64 BACK, OSKAR 6' 2" 192 CENTER FARJESTAD JR. SWEDEN-JR. 72.93 0.64 81
65 DURZI, SEAN 6' 0" 195 DEFENSEMAN OWEN SOUND OHL 73.79 0.86 185
66 FORTIER, GABRIEL 5' 10" 170 LEFT WING BAIE-COMEAU QMJHL 74.07 0.29 45
67 GRUDEN, JONATHAN 6' 0" 172 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 74.14 0.07 92
68 JENIK, JAN 6' 1" 161 RIGHT WING BENATKY N. J. CZREP-2 75.07 0.93 176
69 SKAREK, JAKUB 6' 3" 196 GOALIE JIHLAVA CZREP 75.55 0.47 62
70 RODRIGUE, OLIVIER 6' 1" 159 GOALIE DRUMMONDVILLE QMJHL 75.91 0.36 67
71 DUDAS, AIDAN 5' 8" 162 CENTER OWEN SOUND OHL 76.14 0.23 121
72 FONSTAD, COLE 5' 10" 160 CENTER PRINCE ALBERT WHL 76.93 0.79 79
73 FEHERVARY, MARTIN 6' 1" 190 DEFENSEMAN OSKARSHAMN SWEDEN-2 78.43 1.50 53
T ROMAN, MILOS 6' 0" 188 CENTER VANCOUVER WHL 78.43 0.00 50
75 REGULA, ALEC 6' 3" 201 DEFENSEMAN LONDON OHL 81.14 2.71 55
76 SUTTER, RILEY 6' 3" 200 RIGHT WING EVERETT WHL 81.86 0.71 59
77 ISKHAKOV, RUSLAN 5' 8" 152 CENTER CSKA 2 RUSSIA-JR. 83.00 1.14 112
78 ANDERSSON, AXEL 6' 0" 178 DEFENSEMAN DJURGARDEN JR. SWEDEN-JR. 84.50 1.50 58
79 JENKINS, BLADE 6' 1" 195 LEFT WING SAGINAW OHL 85.07 0.57 113
80 PEKAR, MATEJ 6' 0" 170 CENTER MUSKEGON USHL 85.64 0.57 97
81 MADDEN, TYLER 5' 10" 152 CENTER TRI-CITY USHL 86.71 1.07 56
82 EMBERSON, TY 6' 0" 195 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 89.00 2.29 98
83 ZAVGORODNIY, DMITRY 5' 8" 173 LEFT WING RIMOUSKI QMJHL 89.21 0.21 95
84 DOSTAL, LUKAS 6' 1" 158 GOALIE TREBIC CZREP-2 90.64 1.42 68
85 CLARK, KODY 6' 1" 180 RIGHT WING OTTAWA OHL 91.14 0.51 100
86 KONDELIK, JACHYM 6' 6" 226 CENTER MUSKEGON USHL 92.00 0.86 62
87 BURZAN, LUKA 6' 0" 180 CENTER BRANDON WHL 93.57 1.57 69
88 VALLATI, GIOVANNI 6' 1" 182 DEFENSEMAN KITCHENER OHL 95.86 2.29 73
89 DOUGLAS, CURTIS 6' 8" 234 CENTER WINDSOR OHL 97.07 1.21 138
90 GRAVEL, ALEXIS 6' 3" 219 GOALIE HALIFAX QMJHL 97.18 0.11 114
91 HALL, CURTIS 6' 2" 197 CENTER YOUNGSTOWN USHL 97.57 0.39 84
92 ANNUNEN, JUSTUS 6' 4" 217 GOALIE KARPAT JR. FINLAND-JR. 98.09 0.52 82
93 KOTKOV, VLADISLAV 6' 4" 206 LEFT WING CHICOUTIMI QMJHL 98.79 0.69 109
94 TOPPING, KYLE 5' 11" 185 CENTER KELOWNA WHL 99.36 0.57 90
95 BERNARD, XAVIER 6' 2" 205 DEFENSEMAN DRUMMONDVILLE QMJHL 101.50 2.14 91
96 DUNKLEY, NATHAN 5' 11" 192 CENTER LONDON OHL 101.57 0.07 141
97 GROSS, NICO 6' 1" 183 DEFENSEMAN OSHAWA OHL 101.64 0.07 124
98 HARRIS, JORDAN 5' 11" 179 DEFENSEMAN KIMBALL UNION HIGH-NH 102.57 0.93 96
99 DER-ARGUCHINTSEV, SEMYON 5' 10" 159 CENTER PETERBOROUGH OHL 102.93 0.36 130
100 WESTFALT, MARCUS 6' 3" 203 CENTER BRYNAS SWEDEN 103.29 0.36 116
101 BOUCHARD, XAVIER 6' 4" 190 DEFENSEMAN BAIE-COMEAU QMJHL 103.64 0.36 61
102 ZHURAVLYOV, DANILA 6' 0" 163 DEFENSEMAN IRBIS KAZAN RUSSIA-JR. 103.79 0.14 76
103 PERUNOVICH, SCOTT 5' 9" 172 DEFENSEMAN MINNESOTA-DULUTH NCHC 104.07 0.29 235
104 EGGENBERGER, NANDO 6' 2" 198 LEFT WING DAVOS SWISS 104.71 0.64 124
105 MACDONALD, ANDERSON 6' 2" 207 LEFT WING MONCTON QMJHL 104.93 0.21 149
106 WOUTERS, CHASE 6' 0" 177 CENTER SASKATOON WHL 105.07 0.14 97
107 GALENIUK, DANILA 6' 1" 200 DEFENSEMAN SKA ST. PETERSBURG 2 RUSSIA-JR. 105.86 0.79 117
108 KRAL, FILIP 6' 1" 171 DEFENSEMAN SPOKANE WHL 108.64 2.79 158
109 FLORCHUK, ERIC 6' 1" 174 CENTER SASKATOON WHL 108.71 0.07 94
110 SHAFIGULLIN, BULAT 6' 1" 165 CENTER NIZHNEKAMSK RUSSIA-JR. 108.86 0.14 198
111 GOGOLEV, PAVEL 6' 0" 175 RIGHT WING PETERBOROUGH OHL 109.43 0.57 84
112 INGHAM, JACOB 6' 4" 186 GOALIE MISSISSAUGA OHL 109.64 0.21 58
113 STOTTS, RILEY 6' 0" 168 CENTER CALGARY WHL 110.21 0.58 100
114 WEISS, TYLER 5' 10" 158 LEFT WING USA U-18 NTDP 110.93 0.71 246
T HUTSKO, LOGAN 5' 10" 172 RIGHT WING BOSTON COLLEGE H-EAST 110.93 0.00 223
116 O'REILLY, RYAN 6' 2" 201 RIGHT WING MADISON USHL 111.07 0.14 130
117 UTUNEN, TONI 5' 10" 169 DEFENSEMAN LEKI FINLAND-2 111.50 0.43 61
118 SAMUELSSON, ADAM 6' 6" 240 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 112.21 0.71 112
119 MANDOLESE, KEVIN 6' 4" 180 GOALIE CAPE BRETON QMJHL 112.64 0.42 46
120 CHISHOLM, DECLAN 6' 1" 185 DEFENSEMAN PETERBOROUGH OHL 112.79 0.15 92
121 MASCHERIN, ADAM 5' 9" 195 LEFT WING KITCHENER OHL 113.43 0.64 262
122 SOKOLOV, EGOR 6' 4" 223 LEFT WING CAPE BRETON QMJHL 114.07 0.64 158
123 PIVONKA, JACOB 5' 11" 198 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 114.14 0.07 98
124 STEEVES, ALEXANDER 5' 11" 185 CENTER DUBUQUE USHL 115.07 0.93 137
125 WERNBLOM, LUKAS 5' 9" 165 CENTER MODO JR. SWEDEN-JR. 116.29 1.21 81
126 HOELSCHER, MITCHELL 5' 11" 157 CENTER OTTAWA OHL 118.21 1.93 129
127 GILES, PATRICK 6' 4" 203 RIGHT WING USA U-18 NTDP 118.64 0.43 92
128 LINDBOM, OLOF 6' 0" 173 GOALIE DJURGARDEN JR. SWEDEN-JR. 119.36 0.72 206
129 RIPPON, MERRICK 6' 0" 191 DEFENSEMAN OTTAWA OHL 119.86 0.49 110
130 KILLINEN, LENNI 6' 2" 180 RIGHT WING BLUES JR. FINLAND-JR. 120.36 0.50 92
131 KIRK, LIAM 6' 1" 156 LEFT WING SHEFFIELD ENGLAND 120.57 0.21 95
132 DAMIANI, RILEY 5' 9" 164 CENTER KITCHENER OHL 120.71 0.14 139
133 ALMEIDA, JUSTIN 5' 9" 158 CENTER MOOSE JAW WHL 121.79 1.07 144
134 REICHEL, KRISTIAN 6' 1" 167 CENTER RED DEER WHL 122.21 0.43 126
135 ZAMULA, EGOR 6' 2" 165 DEFENSEMAN CALGARY WHL 122.64 0.43 126
T COTTER, PAUL 6' 0" 191 CENTER LINCOLN USHL 122.64 0.00 102
137 RTISHCHEV, NIKITA 6' 1" 191 RIGHT WING CSKA 2 RUSSIA-JR. 123.21 0.57 170
138 MIFTAKHOV, AMIR 6' 0" 158 GOALIE IRBIS KAZAN RUSSIA-JR. 123.27 0.06 140
139 HAIN, GAVIN 5' 11" 194 CENTER USA U-18 NTDP 123.29 0.01 154
140 STRUTHERS, MATTHEW 6' 2" 209 CENTER NORTH BAY OHL 123.57 0.29 143
141 KEANE, JOEY 6' 0" 180 DEFENSEMAN BARRIE OHL 124.36 0.79 222
142 PETTERSEN, MATHIAS EMILIO 5' 10" 170 CENTER MUSKEGON USHL 124.79 0.43 120
143 RAGNARSSON, JACOB 6' 0" 176 DEFENSEMAN ALMTUNA SWEDEN-2 125.64 0.86 205
144 KARLSSON, LINUS 6' 1" 178 CENTER KARLSKRONA JR. SWEDEN-JR. 125.86 0.21 224
T PERBIX, JACKSON 6' 1" 174 RIGHT WING ELK RIVER HIGH-MN 125.86 0.00 126
146 NYMAN, LINUS 5' 9" 156 RIGHT WING KINGSTON OHL 126.36 0.50 162
147 SALMELA, SANTERI 6' 1" 194 DEFENSEMAN KOOKOO FINLAND 127.21 0.86 126
148 EVERETT, CALEB 6' 1" 181 DEFENSEMAN SAGINAW OHL 127.43 0.21 143
149 HRABIK, KRYSTOF 6' 4" 209 CENTER BENATKY N. J. CZREP-2 127.86 0.43 221
150 STASTNEY, SPENCER 5' 10" 180 DEFENSEMAN USA U-18 NTDP 128.07 0.21 235