All over television, radio, podcasts, and social media the refrain was that the Montreal Canadiens were lucky in their 2-1 Game 7 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Everybody talks about the fact they had no shots in the second period or a total of nine over 60 minutes. Everybody talks about the lucky bounces on both of their goals. Nobody talks about the fact that they only allowed 29 shots, eight of which came in the third period when the Lightning were going all-out for an equalizer over the final eight minutes. Were the Canadiens lucky to keep Tampa Bay out of the slot for most of the game (and series)? Nobody talks about the fact that Alex Newhook’s goal was scored on a play where he did exactly as he intended to do. Was he lucky that he got the right bounce on the play that was intended? Are snipers lucky when their shot goes post and in instead of post and out?
Sixteen years later, I can still remember some of the exact saves that Jaroslav Halak made en route to back-to-back upsets over the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins. Heck, I still remember Jose Theodore’s turnaround backwards save against the Boston Bruins from 2002. Two days later, I don’t know if one specific save by Jakub Dobeš that was even remotely memorable.
Quite frankly, this isn’t 2010. It isn’t even 2002. This is a team that played another great team tough for seven games and won four games. Were they outplayed in Game 7? Absolutely. But that’s why playoffs are series, not one-game eliminations.
Per Moneypuck’s Deserve-to-Win O’Meter, a simulation that runs the game data 1000 times to see who would win most nights, Montreal ‘deserved’ to win four of the first six games. If you’re good at math, or even if you are not, that would indicate that Tampa Bay was ‘lucky’ to even be in a Game 7 in the first place.
The fact is, 90% of one-goal games are swung by ‘luck’. This series just happened to have seven of them.
Don’t let anyone fool you or make you think you’re crazy. They went toe-to-toe with the Lightning and won the series deservedly.
A fitting memory
I was lucky enough to be in the press box at the Bell Centre on October 20. That night, some might remember, was also Game 7 of the American League Championship Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners.
The Canadiens won that night, and quickly turned their attention to the baseball game. Jake Evans rushed his availability to go back and watch the game. Josh Anderson waited until a lull in the action to come out for his. I will always remember talking to Jakub Dobeš in his scrum when the back room erupted. He stopped talking, similar to when he heard his teammates listening into his post-game interview after Game 5. He knew the Jays did something. It was George Springer’s home run that eventually won them the game.
This Canadiens team now have their own Game 7 memory.
Oh yeah, their opponents that night? The Buffalo Sabres. Funny how things work out sometimes.
