It’s been almost three years since we’ve done this at EOTP, but with the recent additions of Ivan Demidov, Michael Hage, and many more addressing key weaknesses in the pipeline, it’s time to revisit and restructure the Montreal Canadiens’ prospect pyramid.
The pyramid system allows for more nuance than ranking prospects individually — especially in the middle of the pack where very little separates prospects 12 through 27, for example. Just like last time, this pyramid consists of seven tiers, the first being reserved for legitimate superstar talent, and the last for prospects who are very unlikely to see a day in the NHL. Here’s the breakdown of the signification of all the tiers in terms of upside:
Tier 1: Legitimate superstar talent.
Tier 2: Top line/top pair for skaters, top-10 starter in the league for goalies.
Tier 3: Top-six forward, #2/3 defenceman, or middle-of-the-pack starting goalie.
Tier 4: Middle-six forward, second-pair defenceman, or bottom-10 starter in the league.
Tier 5: Either surefire bottom-six/third pair potential, or boom-or-bust upside swings for skaters. Likely backup or slim odds of being a high-end starter for goalies.
Tier 6: High likelihood bubble NHLer, or very slim chance of being a middle-six/second-pair/starter.
Tier 7: Unlikely to play an NHL game.
The criteria to be eligible for this pyramid are as follows: the prospect must be no older than 23, and must not have played more than 41 NHL games.
Without further explanation, here is the 2024 edition of the Montreal Canadiens prospect pyramid:
Let’s break it down tier by tier:
Tier 1
Ivan Demidov, the game-breaker
The Habs finally fill this tier with the recent addition of Demidov to the pool. My second-highest ranked prospect in the 2024 NHL Draft, the Russian winger brings a level of creativity and improvisational skill that doesn’t come around very often. His hands are the best to come out of the NHL draft since at least Connor McDavid, and he has tremendous goal-scoring and playmaking tools as well.
Demidov processes the game with a speed and quality that should help him scale his game up to the NHL, and at 6’½” and 196 pounds, he’s able to handle physical scenarios fairly well. His skating is unconventional, but he makes it work. I’ll have a full video scouting report on him out in the next few weeks, but rest assured: Demidov is the real deal.
Tier 2
Lane Hutson-David Reinbacher
The Canadiens have two prospects in this tier, both defencemen, whose profiles could not be more different. Where Lane Hutson is the definition of creativity and elusiveness and has the puck skills to take fans out of their seats on a nightly basis, David Reinbacher brings a steady, reliable, and physical presence from the back-end.
Let’s start with Hutson. After finishing his season with Boston University in April, the diminutive defenceman laced up for the final two matches of the season and looked the part of an NHL game-breaker. There were hiccups here and there, but he showed that what made him a Hobey Baker nominee two years in a row in the NCAA would work in the NHL. The same pump-fakes and blue-line strolls were fooling NHL forwards, and he quickly learned to keep the moves that worked and abandon those that didn’t. He set up teammates in transition and on zone entries with the same level of savvy and creativity he showcased at lower levels dating back to his draft year. He should be able to compete with Matheson for the top power play role next season, establish himself as a true NHLer, and grow into his top-pairing role from there.
In Reinbacher’s case, it was a tough season in Kloten. Too many different voices telling him too many different things throughout the year made it difficult for him to find his game and improve within it. However, in his post-disaster arrival with the Rocket, Reinbacher showcased some alluring defensive tools, great composure, and solid reads — all while putting up five points in 11 AHL games from the blue line. He even got involved in the occasional post-whistle scrum, sticking up for his teammates when needed.
The concern with Reinbacher is whether or not he can do in Laval what he couldn’t in Kloten — find his game. A better environment is a great start, but what matters more is what the 2023 NHL Draft’s fifth overall pick does with that better environment. Will he keep exploring his offensive side, activate down the wall and find comfort in hard-pressure scenarios, or will he default to holding the fort, shooting from the blue line and playing it safe? On the defensive end, will he play it simple as he currently does, or will he take risks to discover what works and what doesn’t? Regardless, he’s in a better seat now than he was before, and the window to hit his upside as a number-two defenceman is still very much open.
Tier 3
Michael Hage, Jacob Fowler, and Logan Mailloux
This tier used to consist of Jordan Harris, Joshua Roy and Kaiden Guhle three years ago. Times have changed for the better. Since then, Harris has graduated and hasn’t hit that top-four upside, Roy’s game moulded to more of a bona fide middle-six projection, and Guhle is the only one to have hit the ceiling projected for him. Now, the Habs’ addition of Michael Hage at 21st overall, along with Jacob Fowler’s selection at 69th overall last year, and Mailloux’s impressive rookie AHL season have made this tier more interesting than it’s been in years.
Hage’s game is built around his speed and handling. He glides effortlessly through the neutral zone and opens up breaches at the offensive blue line to sneak his way in. Once there, he can fire the puck in-motion fairly well, or delay and find a trailer with great setup tools. Hage very much loves to cut inside off the rush, which opens up more ice to work with. Defensively, Hage has come a long way as well.
The concern was that after missing six months last year with an upper-body injury, he would have to do a lot of work to catch up, but catch up he did. More engaged and willing to get involved in scrums, Hage embraced playing a dedicated and detailed off-puck game, which he pairs with his trademark awareness to be a great suppressor. The hard skills are still developing, but Hage has a lot of the soft skill needed to thrive in an NHL top six. If he incorporates more energy into his rush sequences instead of relying on his soft skill to solve problems, he’ll be a fantastic transition driver.
In Fowler’s case, a great NCAA rookie season as the starting netminder for Boston College has put him squarely in this tier. A student of the game whose competitive drive and self-assurance lay the foundation for a strong mental game, Fowler has been tweaking his play style to fit with his frame and skills. Instead of building his technique around his sub-par quickness like he had with Youngstown in his draft year, Fowler has built his technique around a far superior skill of his: his puck-tracking and awareness. Always well-positioned, Fowler rarely has to make a hard save, but when he does, he has the desperation skill to keep the puck out.
Finally, in Mailloux’s case, the drastic improvements in his defensive reads since his draft year have given him a solid foundation around which to build his game and potentially carve out a top-four role. Previously a pure offensive driver whose game revolved around an absurdly heavy shot and way too much chaos, Mailloux has put his 6’3″ frame and decent skating to good use in his first taste of North American pro hockey with the Rocket last season. Although his breakout passing, scanning habits, and on-puck decisions are still concerns that could make him an ineffective NHLer, he has enough in his toolbag to be the Habs’ second power-play quarterback behind Hutson long-term, while also playing a more reliable defensive game at five-on-five than he ever showed heading into last season.
Tier 4
Joshua Roy, Owen Beck, Filip Mešár, and more
This middle-of-the-lineup tier includes six prospects total — four forwards and two defencemen. It starts with Joshua Roy, who forced his way onto the Habs’ roster last year and played 23 games, scoring nine points in that span from the third line. Roy’s skating improvements have been impressive, even though it’s still an average-at-best tool in his game. He relies much more on positioning and high-end reads to be effective, and that works well within Montreal’s system.
In Beck’s case, he continues to grow in confidence and skill. A true cerebral defensive specialist, Beck has all the makings of one of the best third-line centres in the league. The motor, the faceoff ability, the reads and intelligence, the off-puck positioning, and much more combine to make him as efficient as can be. But he still has goal-scoring and playmaking upside. Every NHL team seeks high-pace, high-motor faceoff winners who show up in big games, and that’s Beck to a T.
Mešár, on the other hand, hasn’t lived up to the first-round expectations so far, but he’s been pretty good for Kitchener. His puck-carrying skills, motor, and playmaking continue to be the focal points of his game, but he has also gotten more comfortable at playing inside tight spaces. There’s still hope he makes it as a middle-six play-driver, perhaps as a great complement to Beck on a third line.
The two defencemen, Adam Engström and Bogdan Konyushkov, have impressed since their respective draft years. In Engström’s case, the defensive reads are still a work in progress, but the skating ability and puck skills have kept him effective and consistently involved in the play. He has gotten more poised and more efficient since being selected 92nd overall in 2022, and has made himself a top-four staple for Rögle in the SHL.
Despite being selected by Montreal the year after, Konyushkov is actually 11 months older than Engström. The two play fundamentally different hockey — Engström relies on his skating to compensate for his processing deficiencies, whereas Konyushkov relies on his processing to compensate for his skating deficiencies. A highly intelligent offensive creator, Konyushkov has been playing top-pair minutes for a very youth-friendly KHL team in Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod. His average skating prevents him from being an efficient defensive gap-closer, but he makes up for it by always thinking and moving ahead of the play.
Finally, Oliver Kapanen truly made a name for himself this past year with both KalPa in Liiga, and Finland at the Men’s World Championship. The 6’1″ centre scored 34 points in 51 Liiga games, and stood out massively for Finland with six goals in eight games. A smart and mature off-puck mover, Kapanen’s combination of finishing skill and awareness make him a decent bet to be a middle-six NHLer, though I’m not sure he makes it in Montreal with the amount of prospect depth they have.
Tier 5
Tons of depth options
There are 15 prospects in this tier, so I won’t be going into immense detail on each of them. I rather want to highlight the two different types of prospects in this tier. We have the safe bets to be bottom-six, likely fourth-line pieces such as Luke Tuch, Florian Xhekaj, and Logan Sawyer, and on the other hand, we have the upside swings that aren’t likely to be NHLers, but could hit big if they develop properly. This includes the likes of Aatos Koivu, Sean Farrell, Yevgeni Volokhin and Riley Kidney.
Among some of the other names that stand out, Xavier Simoneau is a good compromise of the two aforementioned types. He has the unrelenting motor, peskiness, defensive smarts, and physical game to be a reliable fourth-line NHLer, while also having the playmaking skill to maybe become a bit more. He remains a 5’6″ forward, and they rarely make the NHL, but if anyone will, it’s him.
Koivu was an interesting selection at 70th overall in the 2024 NHL Draft. The son of Habs legend Saku Koivu has a couple things he does better than most, but the rest of his game lags behind. He’s a fantastic power-play shooter with great one-timer mechanics and timing, and he can weave through the offensive zone fairly well, but his reads aren’t particularly good. He also lacks the energy and pace to be an effective bottom-of-the-lineup player and he tends to get tunnel vision with the puck. He’ll either be a top-six staple if he develops well, or an AHL scorer if he doesn’t.
In Volokhin’s case, why not bank on a Russian goaltender with stellar MHL numbers? It worked for Tampa, the Islanders and the Rangers, and seems to have worked for the Canes as well with Pyotr Kochetkov on the rise. Time will tell with him, but Russia has been churning out goalies left and right in the past decade.
Tier 6
Fringe NHLers and question marks
This group of players with a flicker of NHL potential is led by the likes of Blake Biondi, Daniil Sobolev, and recent seventh-round add Makar Khanin. The latter offers a curious profile as a skilled playmaker who needs to significantly improve his reads, timing, and processing speed to have anything like an NHL future. Adam Nicholas insists that hockey sense can be improved with the right coaching and development; this will be his chance to prove it.
The very best the Habs can expect from the likes of Quentin Miller and Mikus Vecvanags, in my opinion, is a pair of potential backup goaltenders. Neither have any particular area in their game that stands out as above NHL average among netminders, but both are decently mobile, smart, technical, and athletic.
One more standout from this tier is seventh-rounder Luke Mittelstadt, a left-shot defenceman who continues to be a solid puck-mover with great skating, poise, and offensive instincts. His defensive game is fairly limited by his slight frame at 5’11 and his lack of physical skills to potentially compensate for that, but he’s still worth a shout as a maybe on a third pair.
Tier 7
The bottom of the barrel
The prospects listed here, in my opinion, have next to no odds of being NHLers in any capacity. It starts with Dmitri Kostenko, whose attitude problems and poor performances in Russia’s second tier of pro hockey have led to some nasty remarks from his coaches at his expense. He lacks the drive and attention to detail that most NHL defencemen require and, according to reports, is a nightmare to coach.
Jack Smith, somehow still a Habs prospect, is a 22-year-old fourth-rounder from 2020. He still hasn’t found his footing in the NCAA for UMD, only scoring 12 points in 34 games last season. There aren’t many tools in his box that he can work with, other than his good skating.
The pair of netminders in Emmett Croteau and Joe Vrbetic are the only two that give me pause as to my assessment, and that’s only because they’re goaltenders. Those rarely develop in a linear fashion, but so far, Vrbetic is stuck in the ECHL, and Croteau is a NCAA backup with poor performances.
To summarize, the Canadiens took the opportunity that presented itself to them in the 2024 NHL Draft to address the only issue with their pipeline: a fundamental lack of high-upside prospects. By adding a true superstar talent in Ivan Demidov at fifth overall and following that up with Michael Hage at 21st, the Habs showed a desire to take big swings. The addition of Aatos Koivu at 70th only further displayed that desire.
Some previously selected prospects also took some big steps forward, such as Mailloux, Fowler, Kapanen and Filip Eriksson, which further helped stack the top end of the depth chart. Hutson-Reinbacher is setting up to be the Habs’ top pair for the next decade. At this stage, it doesn’t seem like any part of their pool is a weakness. Juraj Slafkovsky keeps improving, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield are still young and on cost-controlled deals, Kirby Dach should be back to health soon…. The future in Montreal is looking brighter than it has in years.
Thanks for reading — follow me on Twitter @HadiK_Scouting for more prospects-related content, and to keep up with the rest of my work!
