Matt Drake, Jared Book, and Patrik Bexell join the podcast for a round table ahead of the upcoming Stanley Cup Playoffs series between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens. The first thing that is being discussed is the physicality of the series and the fact that Montreal looks to be in a better position to handle it this season compared to last season’s series against the Washington Capitals.
One of the key themes early in the podcast was the uncertainty around Victor Hedman. With Hedman away on personal leave, the panel felt his status could become one of the defining factors of the series. The expectation was that if he is available, he will play in Game 1, but the real question is what version of him Tampa gets. If Hedman is close to full strength, he remains the best defenceman in the series and stabilizes everything for Tampa Bay. If he is limited physically or has to play reduced minutes, Montreal may be able to exploit the Lightning’s depth behind him.
That also tied into the discussion about the coaching battle between Martin St-Louis and Jon Cooper. The group viewed Cooper as one of the best playoff coaches in the league and expected the series to become a chess match built around line-matching and adjustments. For St-Louis, it was described as a major learning experience against an elite bench boss, but also an opportunity to show how far he has come with this young Montreal team.
A big tactical point was how difficult it will be for Tampa Bay to find favourable ice for Nikita Kucherov. If the Lightning try to keep Kucherov away from Nick Suzuki, there is still Phillip Danault waiting. The feeling on the podcast was that there simply may not be enough favourable situations for Kucherov to consistently avoid Montreal’s two strongest matchup centres.
That could become even more important if Tampa Bay chooses to use Anthony Cirelli heavily against Suzuki. In that case, Kucherov could end up seeing more of Danault’s line or spending shifts against more physical players like Josh Anderson. The panel felt Montreal would gladly accept that trade, particularly if Anderson can frustrate Kucherov and drag him into post-whistle scrums or matching penalties, taking Tampa Bay’s best offensive player off the ice for stretches.
Standout player picks
Jared: Lane Hutson
“I think this might be the one for him. I think the opportunity is there. I think the confidence is there.”
Matt: Ivan Demidov
Matt called Demidov a potential X-factor, especially if Tampa Bay focuses too much on the Suzuki line:
“I think Ivan Demidov might be a bit of an afterthought for Tampa, and I think that’s a problem. He could go out there and torch them and put up one point per game in this series.”
Patrik: Jakub Dobes
Patrik argued that Montreal’s goalie may have to be the real difference-maker. “Jakub Dobes will have to be the standout for Montreal, because if he isn’t, they’re crashing out.” Jared partly agreed, saying Dobes does not necessarily have to steal the series, but “he has to be good-to-really-good for the Canadiens to have any chance in the series.”
Biggest surprise picks
Patrik: David Reinbacher
“This is the rise of the Reinbacher.” The caveat being that for Reinbacher to have a potential playoff breakthrough story, he has to get into the lineup.
Matt agreed with that idea up and said Reinbacher could become the biggest surprise if given the chance. “I think he’s got a shot to be the biggest surprise for sure,” along with drawing some comparisons with P.K. Subban’s entry into the Canadiens in the 2010 playoffs.
Jared: Kirby Dach
Dach’s size and playoff profile make him an intriguing surprise candidate. “If he wants to remain a Montreal Canadien, he’s going to have to have a good series. I think that when the lights are brightest, he steps up a little bit.
Matt: Oliver Kapanen
Since Patrik had already used Reinbacher, Matt went with Kapanen: “I think he’s going to step up and score some big goals in this series.” The logic was that Tampa Bay may focus too much on Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovský, leaving room for Kapanen to capitalize around the net.
Prediction: How it ends
All three saw a long series, but they did not fully agree on the winner.
Jared: “Montreal in 6.”
“It would not surprise me if it went seven, but stuck with the Canadiens in six. Montreal wants to win the series at home, and will clinch if they have the opportunity.”
Matt: “I’m going Habs in 7. I do think this one’s going 7.”
“I feel Andrei Vasilevskiy would probably steal a couple of games, which is why I expect the series to go the distance.”
Patrik: “If Hedman is at 90% or close to 100%, it’s gonna be Tampa in 7.”
Overall takeaway
The group sees this as a true coin-flip series. They believe Montreal is ahead of schedule, has less pressure than Tampa Bay, and has a real chance to win, especially if it can grab one of the first two games on the road.
The best summary lines comes from Jared. “It won’t be a big surprise if they win, but it also won’t be a big surprise if they lose. Tampa is still a formidable team to go up against.”
Matt left the closing feeling on the matchup: “This series is going to be … I think it’s the best series in the first round.”
Bonus episode: know your enemy where Jared joins the folks from Backchecking the Bolts to discuss the matchup.
