Make no mistake about it, the Montreal Canadiens were struggling to start the season. In their defensive zone, especially. Call it man-to-man, call it zone, call it a hybrid. Call it what it was: just bad. Whatever they were trying wasn’t working.
Over the past few weeks, it was slowly improving. There were still some frustrating lapses in coverage, sure. There were still some big losses. But overall, they were improving.
It used to be tough to pinpoint improvements in defensive zone coverage, especially when you couldn’t point to goals allowed or wins as an overall metric. Thanks to Micah McCurdy and his site HockeyViz, we can literally visualize the improvement over time.
In the beginning, it wasn’t pretty. Through four games, the Canadiens were expected to give up 3.57 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Contextually, that is 40% above league average. The slot, especially was a mess.
Let's check in on the Habs defence after four games
— Micah McCurdy (@hockeyviz.com) October 15, 2024 at 9:29 AM
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McCurdy kept tracking the developments, and posted again after eight games. It was still bad, at 3.40 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes, 32% above league average. After 12 games, it was 3.30 expected goals allowed per 60 minutes, 29% above league average. Game 12, to put it into context, was the 3-1 road loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The next four game sample included the overtime loss to the Calgary Flames, the loss to the New Jersey Devils, the loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the win against the Buffalo Sabres. Those four games showed a lot of improvement at five-on-five without the results to show for it. However, that’s where Micah comes in again.
Let's check in on the Habs defence after sixteen games. Some real improvement!
— Micah McCurdy (@hockeyviz.com) November 12, 2024 at 11:58 AM
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There was a real jump. They finally got under three expected goals against per 60 minutes, to 2.94 which put them only 15% above league average. The wins weren’t catching up to the improvements. It would have been easy for them to get discouraged when a very solid effort in Minnesota turned into a 3-0 loss. They didn’t. They came back home and soundly defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets. Their biggest test came on Monday night.
The Edmonton Oilers haven’t had a very strong start to their season, but they are the type of team that can carve up any defence. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are two of the most dangerous players in the NHL on any given night. Anyone who has watched the Canadiens this season had to balance the improvement they had shown with the reality that this could have easily been the next early week 7-2 or 8-2 loss.
It wasn’t. In fact, it was their best effort of the season so far. A 3-0 shutout win where the Oilers really only looked dangerous when they had an extra player on the ice. Their commitment to defence worked as a five-man unit and they looked cohesive.
It is a game early from McCurdy’s four-game update cycle, but let’s cheat a little and take a look at where they are after 19 games.
They keep on improving. They are now down to 2.78 goals against per 60 minutes, only 9% above league average. It should come as no surprise that this recent turnaround with team defence has led to better goaltending. Samuel Montembeault also has a lot of credit due his way. Since coming in relief during the team’s win in Buffalo, he is 3-1 with a 0.93 goals against average and .966 save percentage, with the one shutout.
It’s easy to say Montembeault is the reason the Canadiens are turning solid performances into wins, but the solid performances in their own zone also make Montembeault’s job easier. Solid defence is nothing without solid goaltending and solid goaltending can be derailed by bad defence allowing too many great scoring chances.
The Canadiens are still a developing, young, and somewhat fragile team. They are the same number of points to last place in the NHL as they are to a playoff spot. It can be hard to look at 4-1 losses and feel good about the improvements you are making. Having a 3-0 win against one of the most dangerous offensive players in NHL history isn’t just something they can build off of.
It’s something that they can aspire to do on a consistent basis because they know they are capable of it.
