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2023 NHL Draft prospect profile: Expect to hear Leo Carlsson’s name called very early

Örebro Hockey
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Swedish centre Leo Carlsson isn’t part of the Swedish World Under-18 Championship team due to the simple fact that he is too good, on the cusp of joining the men’s team in the World Championship that is being held in Latvia and Finland.

Carlsson has been part of the two warm-up games against Norway, where he has one assist, but he has also been selected for the next two games against Finland on April 27 and 29, and has a good chance of making the Swedish National Team. This was something that didn’t seem possible in February, but a strong SHL playoff push led Sweden coach Sam Hallam to pick him – and play him – leading up to the tournament.

Birthplace: Karlstad, Sweden
Date of birth: December 26, 2004
Shoots: Left
Position: Centre
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 194 lbs.
Team: Örebro HK (SHL)

What has made Carlsson a name for the 2023 NHL Draft? While he is big at 6’3″ and 194 pounds, it is other things that really stand out. His hockey IQ and vision are obvious strengths, something everyone notices at first glance, but his skating is equally strong and he has a good passing game. Those are all qualities that an NHL team is looking for in a centre.

Which brings up the next concern that has been aired about Carlsson: He hasn’t played centre in the SHL. Well, neither did a certain Elias Pettersson, and he turned out alright. Carlsson has played centre in the U20 both in Örebro and with the WJC squad, so NHL teams will have enough data to see him succeed. While he is listed as a winger, he sometimes lines up as a centre during a game, all in order to learn on the job.

Scouts in Sweden who have been asked about this have all said the same thing. “He is the archetypal centre, and if – and it’s a big if – he doesn’t make it, then you’ll have a very shifty winger.”

Carlsson had 25 points  (10G, 15A) in 44 games, an impressive feat for any young player in the professional ranks. However, it was during the playoffs where he really stood out for his team. He was second in scoring, where he had nine points (1G, 8A) in 12 games. He led the team with fellow youth player Linus Öberg, while playing 14:24 a game.

Graphic: A data plot of European draft-eligible forwards from 2017 to 2023, with expected goals per 60 minutes on the X-axis and expected primary assists on the Y-Axis. Carlsson is plotted at about 2.2 expected goals for and 0.5 expected primary assists.
Mitch Brown & Lassi Alanen’s tracking project

As can be seen above in a plot of draft-year performances for European prospects, Carlsson’s season has been one of the most impressive over the past six years. He looks slightly better than Jonathan Lekkerimäkki (the DIF marker) and current draft-board riser Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (of HV71), with the second best expected-goal-production and third-best expected primary assists.

His playmaking talents are on display in the clips below. He knows exactly when to drop the puck to the teammate who comes in a crossing pattern behind him, and it’s a perfect pass that leads to a goal.

Carlsson covers the puck well, his reach is good, and so is his hand-eye coordination, on top of the dekes that he showcases. Another example is in the clip below where you can see Carlsson using his physicality to protect the puck and then pass into the slot to set up the goal.

There is a lot to like about Carlsson’s play. The fact that he can control the game to this level in a pro league in his draft year should mean that the transition to North America will be smooth.

In the defensive zone, he plays smart and uses his physique to pin the opponents against the wall. He is calm and collected and doesn’t chase the puck but rather makes sure to end up in passing lanes, or on top of the attacker. This, is from the SHL standpoint where he has been used on the wing in defence, but those skills should translate well to a centre position.

The one weakness that stands out in his game is his shot. He has a quick release but the precision and the power aren’t high. When he wants to add power he usually advertises the shot and opposing players can be ready. He thrives in the area closest to the net where tip-ins and quick releases are his forte. It all comes back to his excellent hand-eye coordination and, with this in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising to see him develop a better, less telegraphed, shot.

Preliminary Rankings

Dobber Prospects: #4
Elite Prospects: #3
FCHockey: #4
Hockey Prospect: #2
Hadi Kalakeche: #4
McKeen’s: #3
Bob McKenzie (TSN): #3
NHL Central Scouting: #1 EU
Corey Pronman (The Athletic): #4
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): #4

In a different year, Carlsson would have been in a fight for the first overall pick, but with the overall play of Connor Bedard, the star power and skill of Matvei Michkov, along with Adam Fantilli, it’s all up in the air. A strong World Championship might raise his stock. The big question mark is Michkov who is, in pure skill and x-factor, a clear number two in the draft, but the Russian situation might mean that he falls. Then it is Fantilli and Carlsson who will be consolation prizes. And what prizes they will be.

Carlsson may not be a superstar centre at 18, but he will be a huge part of the foundation for a team that is in a rebuild or retool. The transition to the North American game should be easy and his skill set is projectable. To get that player at number four (which seems possible) would be a win for any team.

While it is easy to compare him to Pettersson (without the shot), Filip Forsberg might be a better comparison in the long run.

HockeyProspecting.com

While the centre situation for the Montreal Canadiens looks strong, anyone would add Leo Carlsson to the prospect pool if the opportunity was there when it’s their time to pick. There’s the added bonus that they would have four years to sign him (even if we know that won’t happen) and he can be placed in the AHL if signed, even if he has a valid SHL contract due to the fact that he will be a first-round pick.

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