Introduction
After his 2022-23 season was cut short by injury, Kirby Dach arrived at training camp in 2023 with the aim of helping the Montreal Canadiens claim a playoff spot. From the start, he was tasked with playing with Juraj Slafkovský, and the two developed good chemistry in the pre-season.
All the while, it appeared that Dach was dealing with a lower-body injury, often slow to get back to his feet after hits. He was still able to play well, putting together a two-point performance in the opening game, but just 4:40 into the second game of the season, versus his former team of the Chicago Blackhawks, his season came to an abrupt end. A hit from defenceman Jarred Tinordi resulted in a torn ACL and MCL in Dach’s right knee.
A long recovery was in order following major procedures to repair the ligaments, with his doctor adamant that he needed eight months to be fully healed before returning to game action. While he didn’t play another game for the Canadiens last season, we was working on the theory behind the scenes with the coaching staff, and was back on the ice doing light skates in the final weeks. It was an encouraging sign that the recovery was on track, allowing him to go into the off-season relieved that he could properly prepare for his third season with the Canadiens.
Voting
Dach received six votes in top three last year, but just one this summer. Yet his range among panellists still extends no lower than seventh for a second consecutive year, and he ends up in fourth place in this year’s countdown.
It was very close between him and Lane Hutson (one-sixth of a point) for this placement, and their distributions are also very similar. Fewer community votes for Dach at sixth and seventh were the difference.
Top 25 Under 25 History
| 2023: #3 | 2022: #5 |
History of #4
| Year | #4 |
|---|---|
| 2023 | Kaiden Guhle |
| 2022 | Kaiden Guhle |
| 2021 | Mattias Norlinder |
| 2020 | Alexander Romanov |
| 2019 | Ryan Poehling |
| 2018 | Victor Mete |
| 2017 | Phillip Danault |
| 2016 | Nathan Beaulieu |
| 2015 | Nikita Scherbak |
| 2014 | Jarred Tinordi |
| 2013 | Lars Eller |
| 2012 | Lars Eller |
| 2011 | Lars Eller |
| 2010 | Benoit Pouliot |
Strengths
Dach’s greatest asset to an NHL roster is his play on the defensive half of the ice, and that was sorely missing from the team last season. He gets involved in board battles and uses his long reach to strip the puck away. He acts as a third defencemen to help stop cycles and prevent dangerous passes to the middle of the ice.
When he wins possession, he already knows where the rest of the opponents are before he makes his next move. That move is often to carry the puck out with possession, using his excellent skating to gain separation and get over the blue line. Very good hands make him a great stick-handler, and he can carry the puck through the neutral zone with speed to launch the attack.
Offensively, he’s largely a playmaker, taking advantage of his hands, reach, and vision to move the puck to teammates. He likes to drive the puck to the middle of the zone, and generally gets his goals from a position in the low slot.
Weaknesses
The 200-foot talent is undeniable, but we’ve only seen it in action for a total of 60 games since he was acquired back at the 2022 NHL Draft. The injury issues didn’t just start in Montreal, either; he played just 18 games in 2020-21 after sustaining a wrist injury in a World Juniors pre-tournament game, and was dealt a concussion in a prospect tournament months after initially being drafted. The issues have resulted from violent impacts, so in his case it may be more bad luck than being injury prone. The hope is that it’s the former case, and the fact he still ranks fourth indicates that that’s the general sentiment.
He is a big player at 6’4″ and 217 pounds, but isn’t an overly physical one. Perhaps given his injury troubles it’s not such a bad thing that he’s chosen to channel those physical gifts into his skating stride and long reach than trying to bash his way through puck battles. He also hasn’t figured out how to use his frame to win faceoffs, hovering around 38% in his games in Montreal. He does use his size to get past opponents to the ice he wants to occupy.
He could open up more opportunities for himself on offence by shooting more. Throughout his career he’s scored his goals from in close, with some highlight-reel end-to-end rushes in his Junior days, driving straight to the net. He would be a more dangerous threat if defenders had to respect the possibility of a shot coming off his stick from outside the slot area rather than just a pass as is the case right now.
Projection
When Dach first arrived in Montreal, he was both the best option to be the team’s second-line centre and the top choice to play on the right side next to Nick Suzuki on the top trio. With the acquisition of Patrik Laine and the rapid rise of Slafkovský last season, he can prepare for the season knowing he’ll be locked into a centre role.
He may not get to play with Slafkovský again as he did last year, but will have two of Cole Caufield, Patrik Laine, Alex Newhook, and Joshua Roy as options to flank him, and that’s before Ivan Demidov enters the conversation a year from now. The lack of goal-scoring will be less of a concern with quality linemates who can finish plays off or find his stick from his position in the slot. His offensive strengths match perfectly with the bumper role on the power play, and there are now enough pieces in place to let him be effective on either the first or second unit.
He is a proper top-six centre who could seamlessly slide onto the top line and have a positive impact even versus top competition. He is essentially a bigger, faster Phillip Danault who can absorb the most difficult matchups, with a more experienced Suzuki to help him share that load.
It’s a solid one-two punch down the middle that many teams would love to have, and there is help coming in the pipeline to solidify that position. It’s a top-six pillar that the Chicago Blackhawks could have had with Connor Bedard and Dach if they hadn’t traded away their third-overall selection from 2019. They will instead hope Frank Nazar, acquired with the pick they got in the trade, will fill that role instead. If Dach can put these injury issues behind him, the Blackhawks may regret being so quick to part with such a talented player, sending him to a team on a similar trajectory to reaching Stanley Cup contention.
2:30 – The Kirby Dach’s unknowns
4:30 – Dach sets up plays, can he set up Patrik Laine?
7:00 – Where is Dach physically, and how could he be deployed during the off-season/season?
10:00 – Who should be the third player on the Dach – Laine line?
11:45 – Did you expect Dach to fall further than he did this year?
13:30 – What can be expected from Dach in this upcoming season?
16:00 – Weaknesses, especially face-offs…
18:00 – Commercial Break
18:15 – Chris Peters spoke about an offence with revolving roles, no set centre, could Dach’s line work like that?
20:00 – Context when looking at history.
24:30 – Dach’s contract, good / bad, extend or replacements in the system?
