Things haven’t quite gone according to plan for Juraj Slafkovský this season. After a very strong second half of 2023-24 saw him ink an eight-year deal to remain a member of the Montreal Canadiens through the 2032-33 season, he has somewhat stagnated in this, the final year before that deal kicks in.
Fans are starting to show some serious concern over his development, and whether the team may have jumped the gun in signing that deal. With the team on break for the next couple of weeks for the 4 Nations Face-Off, now is as good a time as any for us to take a look at his stats so far this season, and figure out whether it is indeed time to worry about where he’s headed.
On the left, we have this year’s data on Slafkovský, while the right side shows him in 2023-24. One of the first things you’ll notice is something that I and plenty of other fans have pointed out this season: he’s not shooting enough. His top shot speed has improved, so he’s generating more velocity than before, while using it less.
It is understandable for someone who plays on a line with Cole Caufield to defer, but a touch more selfishness could go a long way for his own scoring, in addition to generating more secondary scoring opportunities from rebounds. He’s on pace for around 50 fewer shots on goal this season compared to last, when Caufield was one of his most common linemates as well. This isn’t just him deferring as usual, he seems genuinely hesitant to shoot at all.
Top skating speed is another concern, which goes back to something our colleague Hadi Kalakeche has spoken about. We don’t see Slafkovský using bursts of speed to solve problems this year. His pass-first mentality leads him to slow down with the puck rather than try to pick up speed, scanning for the best option. This both limits his ability to beat defenders one-on-one and facilitates opposing checkers catching him and forcing a bad pass or turning it into a puck battle. He doesn’t have that stick-handle-in-a-phone-booth gene, so he plays directly into the hands of defenders when he slows himself down.
What precipitated his demotion in the lineup over the weekend was an example of that. He slows to a crawl with the puck, and ends up making a bad pass that leads directly to a goal against. He responded very well to that demotion with some solid play on the third line, but if he were using his speed more, it may not have happened in the first place.
We know that he is capable of quicker bursts, and when he uses them, they tend to lead directly to good things.
Nice move and set up for Caufield by Slafkovksy. Doesn't work out this time, nice save from Dostal. pic.twitter.com/F160btLQZF
— Matt Drake (@DrakeMT) February 2, 2025
We can take a deeper look at his play courtesy of All Three Zones, and see if more detailed numbers line up with these issues. The stats shown for 2024-25 are for his games prior to the Four-Nations break.
Once more, we have this season on the left, and 2023-24 on the right. The good news is that, on the whole, the defensive side of his game has become significantly stronger. He’s a zone-exit machine, and the only thing holding him back is botched puck-retrievals. These numbers are all relative to league average, so he’s becoming a significantly above average NHL defender, which is definitely something that can be taken as a welcome silver lining amidst concerns over his point production.
Unsurprisingly, where things have gone wrong for him is at the offensive end. All of his shooting metrics are down in the dumps, with significant downturns compared to last season. Again, we’re back to a very simple solution, which is for him to be more decisive, and just shoot the puck more.
His zone-entry numbers aren’t terrible, but again we see regression year-over-year. We know that he can gain the zone when he attacks with speed. If they can get him doing that more often, he can reverse this trend during the stretch run. Numbers, eye test, however you want to look at his game this year, all signs point to more pace with the puck and more shots as being the answers he’s looking for.
To answer the titular question, I would argue that it’s too early to be worried at this stage. I’ll acquiesce for those who are; it isn’t totally unfair to be when his production to date has been short of what one would expect from a first-overall pick. That said, he has regressed primarily on the offensive side of things, progressed nicely on the defensive side, and still sits around the same point-scoring pace that he finished last season with.
You could argue that the defensive progression is worth more than a point explosion at this stage. Sure, a breakout year from him might have them closer in the wild-card race, but they were never expected to make the playoffs anyway. If he can maintain his excellence in zone exits while adjusting his offensive game to be more optimal, he could time his breakout year perfectly with the arrival of Ivan Demidov in 2025-26.
So, to answer the titular question of whether or not we should be worried about him, I would say that we shouldn’t, but with a couple of caveats.
First, when he is carrying the puck in transition and breaking into the offensive zone, they need to get him to keep his feet moving. A pass-first mentality is perfectly fine, but it can’t come at the expense of speed. Attacking with speed should back defenders off more, and give him better options once he crosses the offensive blue line.
The second is that once he crosses that line, if there is no immediate option for a pass, he has to let that puck fly. He has to trust that his linemates will fill their lanes and go after rebounds. We saw him do that against the Senators in the first game after the break, and it was quite possibly his best game of the season. Simplifying his game with the puck – on top of a hellacious forechecking game without it – made for a return to action that inspired hope for the remainder of his season.
If the coaching staff can get him doing these two things more consistently in the stretch run, it might be too late for that to get them back into the wild card race, but it would go a very long way to placating those who are concerned about his future.
