The moment that the Montreal Canadiens made him the fifth overall selection in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, people started asking questions concerning Ivan Demidov’s immediate future. The noise rose to such volumes that both Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes and SKA Saint Petersburg CEO and head coach Roman Rotenberg felt the need to publicly address it. Their unprecedented unified public message tell us two things: first, that the Canadiens and SKA are engaged in a partnership when it comes to Demidov’s development as a hockey player. Second, that the ideal plan—for both parties—is for Demidov to play with SKA Saint Petersburg for the 2024-25 KHL campaign.
Youngsters can play in the KHL if they deserve it
Certainly, multiple factors need to be considered when determining the best course of action for a player’s development. However, in most situations, hockey factors take precedent—and Demidov’s situation is no exception. Although he was born and played his youth hockey in the Moscow region, Demidov has been part of the SKA academy program since age 15, and SKA’s coaches know him better than anyone else. Staying in Russia further avoids the immediate issues with language, culture, style of game, rink size, and so on that accompanies any prospect moving from European hockey to the North American game. For all of these reasons, most would agree that in an ideal situation, the KHL is Demidov’s best landing spot for the upcoming season.
However, ideal situations rarely exist in reality. Setting aside the political and economic issues plaguing the KHL-NHL relationship, Canadiens fans are also concerned about how Russian clubs have been historically reluctant to give under-20 players significant minutes at the KHL level. Indeed, those who follow the Habs have first-hand experience with this phenomenon through watching CSKA Moscow’s handling of Alexander Romanov. It’s this concern, perhaps more than any other, that has fuelled calls for Montreal to step in and take full control of the youngster by any means necessary if Demidov’s ice-time at the KHL level is unsatisfactory—or if he is moved to either the under-20 SKA 1946 or second-tier VHL SKA Neva club.
That said, while KHL teams typically minimize the role of their youngsters, there are quite a few exceptions to the rule, enough to reasonably assume that a player who deserves the ice-time will receive it regardless of his date of birth. Three of the four KHL players selected in the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft—Matvei Michkov, Dmitry Simashev, Mikhail Gulyayev—all played significant minutes in their draft+1 (D+1) seasons. While people can point to HC Sochi’s lack of roster depth to explain Michkov’s usage, Simashev logged 14 minutes a night for the eventual Gagarin Cup finalists Lokomotiv Yaroslavl while Gulyayev played over 15 minutes per game on average for Eastern Conference second seeds Avangard Omsk. The only one who did not make the cut was Danill But, who only managed 9:26 a night. Given that he played for the same Lokomotiv team as Simashev though, it’s reasonable to assume that But’s deployment was merit-based rather than club policy.
In fact, while KHL youngsters were historically often hard-pressed to play more than 10 minutes a game, the exodus of foreign talent from the league following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine has opened up opportunities for local prospects. Marat Khusnutdinov, for example, went from 7:32 a night as an 18-year-old in 2020-21 to 14:54 as a 19-year-old the following season. Alexander Nikishin, a name specifically cited by Hughes as an example of positive development within the Russian system, went from 12:04 to 19:10 with Spartak Moscow. Even Bogdan Konyushkov made the jump from playing exclusively in the VHL in 2021-22 to playing 20:44 per game as a 20-year-old with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod the subsequent season—a performance that got him drafted by the Canadiens. That said, even before the war, the KHL still allowed talent to shine through. Kirill Kaprizov logged an average time-on-ice of 17:21 as an 18-year-old in 2015-16 with Metallurg Novokuznetsk, and Vladislav Gavrikov played 16:24 in his D+1 year with Lokomotiv.
For Rotenberg, Demidov and Michkov are on different trajectories
The other major concern raised by Montreal fans and pundits is that SKA Saint Petersburg could potentially treat Demidov like Michkov. This presumably would involve freezing the forward out of a role with the KHL team and relegating him to the junior-level MHL or the second-tier VHL—or even exiling him from Saint Petersburg to languish with a bottom-feeding KHL club. But Michkov’s path to HC Sochi was not pre-determined. The Philadelphia Flyers prospect played 13 games with SKA in his draft year… then three the next season… and then one the year after. Conversely, Demidov’s time with SKA has progressed from two games in his draft minus-one year to four in his draft year.
The main decision-maker here is Roman Rotenberg, who is in a unique position as both executive and head coach to dictate a player’s fate both on and off the ice. In a May 2024 interview with Match.ru, Rotenberg’s comments about Michkov are tinged with hints of bitterness towards the player and combativeness towards the Flyers:
[…] we have invested a lot in Matvei, I can tell you honestly. I personally did a lot to ensure that he played for us, that he came to us. I personally did this. I invested a lot of time and effort in developing this player in our organization.
But we want to support Matvei as a family [would]. We want to give him the opportunity to develop. If, for example, he cannot play with in the top league with Philadelphia and does not receive [time with] the first power-play unit there, if he is sent to the AHL or even to the East Coast League [sic], then we will do everything to ensure that Michkov returns and plays only in the KHL.
(Translation courtesy Google Translate, vetted by a Russian-speaking academic. Original Russian here.)
When asked about Michkov’s impending departure, Rotenberg makes a point of repeatedly emphasizing how much SKA has invested into Michkov, hinting that he is a wayward son for wanting to leave before the end of his contract. He implies that the Philadelphia Flyers—especially their farm clubs—are potentially detrimental to Michkov’s development. Finally, he closes with a bold statement: that the Flyers must give Michkov a prominent role or lose access to him entirely. Curiously, while Rotenberg is insistent that Michkov will either become an NHL star or return to the KHL, he does not betray any notion that he wants the wunderkind to return to SKA.
Clearly, the relationship between Michkov and the SKA organization soured at some point (which Canadiens co-director of amateur scouting Nick Bobrov, whose father Sergei is a consultant with SKA, may have picked up on). Talking to Match.ru’s Pavel Lysenkov, Rotenberg does not talk about Michkov in the context of SKA, but rather is more concerned with the player as a future asset for the Russian national team. He wears not the hat of SKA head coach, but that of general manager and vice-president of the Russian Ice Hockey Federation.
Contrast this with how Rotenberg recently spoke about Demidov and the Canadiens organization in an interview with Match TV:
We discussed Demidov, we talked everything over well. We had a very positive conversation about how we would develop Ivan [at] SKA. There was no talk even about him leaving for Canada. It was the ill-wishers who threw in fake news. Maybe it is even Russian journalists who are stirring it up.
The truth is that Montreal and I have a joint plan for Demidov’s development. Our goal is for Ivan to have his best season in the KHL. And a lot depends not only on the coach, but also on the player himself. Nikita Zaitsev, Mikhail Grigorenko, Sergei Plotnikov have joined us at SKA… We have a very strong, skilled roster. And this will benefit Demidov. Adult teammates will help [Demidov] on the ice and in life. He will gain invaluable experience that will help him in the future.
(Translation courtesy Google Translate, republished by the Journal de Montreal. Original Russian here.)
Rotenberg makes a point of mentioning the potential culpability of Russian journalists in stirring up the Demidov hornet’s nest, a reconciliatory move given that the vast majority of the noise concerning a premature departure for the forward has come from the North American side of the Atlantic. He further makes a point of noting that Demidov’s development will be a collaborative effort, that any plan for the player would be jointly determined by SKA and the Canadiens organization. Rotenberg’s public statements indicate that he views Montreal as an equal partner rather than a transactional client or a hostile entity. Given the bridges built by Rotenberg the executive, it is unlikely that Rotenberg the head coach would hamper Demidov’s on-ice performance out of spite or as part of a scheme to diminish the player’s value.
Montreal has little to offer a Demidov who cannot make the KHL by merit
For all of these reasons, the Canadiens and their fans can reasonably assume that Demidov’s involvement with the SKA organization at the KHL level will be a question of his own merit. Truthfully, it is not unrealistic to expect that Demidov would play at least part of the year in the MHL or VHL. Of the 10 most recent fifth-overall selections, only three played professional hockey in their D+1 year: Noah Hanifin (NHL), Elias Pettersson (SHL), and David Reinbacher (NL). Four returned to the NCAA (Alex Turcotte, Jake Sanderson, Kent Johnson, Cutter Gauthier), while the remaining three plied their trade in the OHL (Michael Dal Colle, Olli Juolevi, Barrett Hayton).
Furthermore, SKA, as perennial Gagarin Cup contenders, are under no threat to miss the playoffs. This level of domination means that the team can be very patient with Demidov—whether that means easing him in slowly at the KHL level, scaling his deployment in accordance to the level of competition, or giving him short stints with the VHL or MHL side to regain his form and/or confidence. This level of flexibility is not something that Montreal can offer.
Remember, the KHL is no longer the second-best league in the world. The post-invasion exodus of foreign talent has moved the KHL’s level of competition to roughly on par with Finland’s Liiga, and below that of the Swiss National League and Sweden’s SHL. Given this, any move to the NHL or AHL would represent a considerable step up when it comes to level of competition. A Demidov unable to handle the rigours of the KHL would stand little chance of finding success at the NHL or AHL level—and would also have no avenue to escape such a situation.
Additional reporting by Patrik Bexell.
