It is tough to assess Aatos Koivu’s season as it didn’t follow the expected path with bigger minutes and development with the U20 squad but rather limited minutes in Liiga against seasoned professionals. With around nine minutes a game I can also confess to not having watched a lot of games with TPS Turku, but rather focused on the highlights.
I was surprised that Koivu stayed with TPS Turku’s Liiga team as I thought Kapanen’s move to the U20 league was a good one, and Kapanen did that while playing for TPS’s current coach when he was with KalPa, Tommi Miettinen.
While comparing the forward prospect’s season with previous prospects in Liiga it looks a bit damaging to Koivu. He ends up toward the bottom in a list of prospects and their performance in the Finnish league in their draft-plus-one year, behind players that have had limited impact in the NHL, but just above Oliver Kapanen, who is a player that will highlight the development path for Koivu.
This led to a more detailed dive into the Montreal Canadiens’ previous prospects that played in Liiga after having been drafted.
Suddenly Koivu looks a lot better (unfortunately there isn’t data for Artturi Lehkonen’s draft year, as it would have been an interesting comparison). However, the goals per 60 are lower than hoped as his shot really is his strength at the moment. He slid behind Jesse Ylönen but before both Joni Ikonen’s and Kapanen’s seasons.
Strengths
Koivu’s bread and butter is his shot, his main strength that should be what makes him go further. An opposing player that I have spoken to said, “He is difficult to play against since his shots can come from anywhere. It’s terrible for a defender like me.” The shot is based on versatility and mechanics, and he can shoot from either leg and he transfers the power throughout his release. He must have wrists of steel springs as he generates a lot of power with them. He hides and blends his shot with quick hand movements, including off the curl-and-drag where has a quick backhand to forehand snapshot move. Added to this a good one-timer when necessary.
The shot isn’t powerful like Emil Heineman’s, but rather its the quick release and the fact that Koivu uses it often. The confidence he shows with the puck on his stick is an important part of his game.
Weaknesses
He isn’t small, but his physique is something that any player at his age should improve. The important bit is really to do it the right way, with core and leg strength to improve balance and lower the centre of gravity and not to build up his upper body. Though opposing players said that it was neither a weakness nor a strength when questioned, the caveat is that those reviews came from other 18- and 19-year-olds. For a pro career it is something that Koivu needs to work on, as all prospects do.
With the royal blood flowing through the veins of Aatos I am surprised that his defensive game isn’t as developed. This could be down to usage and the need for further development. He is listed as a winger, but will probably get a look at centre at one point or another.
Grade: B-
I was certain I would grade Koivu’s season as a C due to his usage in Liiga and not producing at a high level. As I compared his draft-plus-one season to those of other players it didn’t look like I would change that grade. However, digging a bit deeper and looking at points per 60 changes the grade from a C to a B-. Koivu had a big step up in competition, and his ice time took a hit as a result.
I was surprised that he didn’t spend the season in the U20’s to give him a better chance to win the rookie of the year award in 2026. Staying in Liiga should not be a slight on the grade but rather benefit Koivu in the long run.
Using the data provided by Thibaud Chatel and NL IceData it is clear that it was a huge step up in competition for Koivu this season, and the development trajectory flattened with the move.
Going back to table 2 it is clear that Koivu did do better than the two other Canadiens prospects, one of whom looks to have worked out, and the other having a pro career but more in the lower leagues of Europe. It’s difficult to foresee where Koivu’s career will end up, but he has a long road ahead of him.
One would think that TPS and coach Miettinen look to reap the rewards from the 2024-25 season in the fall as Koivu will have the experience and a full summer to build up and get ready for the World Juniors, where he will play a prominent role on the Finnish team.
Canadiens fans should get a look at Koivu during development camp this summer. Time will tell if he can make it into the team down the line, but with the pedigree of his dad it is safe to say that every Montreal fan wants Koivu to get a chance with the bleu, blanc, et rouge.
