Every year when the NHL Draft inches closer to arriving, there tends to be a handful of prospects that divide scouts and analysts. In the 2023 class, the highest-ranked of them is Dalibor Dvorsky, a Slovak centre playing for AIK in the second-tier Swedish league, HockeyAllsvenskan.
It’s not that some scouts think Dvorsky is a bad player; quite the opposite in most cases. Many are debating how high his ceiling is, and if he’s worth picking inside the top 10 in the first round of this year’s draft. There is plenty to his game that should see him make his way to the NHL before too long, but is there enough room to grow and make him a true top-six threat?
Birthplace: Zvolen, Slovakia
Date of Birth: June 15, 2005
Shoots: Left
Position: Centre/Right Wing
Height: 6′ 1″
Weight: 201 lbs.
Team: AIK (HockeyAllsvenskan)
Dvorsky spent most of his draft season in the lineup for AIK, after primarily playing for their under-20 outfit last year and for part of this season. In 38 games at the higher tier, he put up six goals and eight assists on a team that finished around the bottom third of the Allsvenskan table. His scoring totals placed him eighth overall in points, not a bad spot for the youngest player in the league.
Dvorsky’s stats from his time in a men’s league don’t tell the full story. AIK was in the relegation scrap for most of the year, meaning his coach leaned more heavily on his veterans than his young players. When playing among his own age group, Dvorsky shined in a big way, dominating both the World Under-18 Championship, and the Swedish under-20 league.
At the U18 tournament, he thrust his name back into top-10 draft chatter when he finished second in goal-scoring (8) and sixth in total points (13) in seven games played for Slovakia. While he played just 10 games for AIK’s under-20 squad, he scored at a clip of two points per game.
Dvorsky represents much of what we think of when describing a modern two-way forward in the hockey world. He loves to put pucks towards the net, and just as equally has no problem distributing the puck to his teammates as well.
When we look at his tracking numbers from the Swedish under-20 league, we see this relatively easily. Not only that, but we see that Dvorsky has no problem being the catalyst in a transitional game as well. Overall, his domination of the Junior leagues ends up being equally represented by his counting stats and his more advanced metrics.
If we expand further on his underlying numbers, we can look at his shot contributions from his time with AIK this past year. While a draft contemporary like Kasper Halttunen or Daniil But tend to shoot more often, neither of them create chances for teammates like Dvorsky does.
It’s not to say that Dvorsky cannot be a goal-scoring forward, in fact he has all the hallmarks of one who can produce at much higher levels as he matures. He knows where to put himself inside the offensive zone and uses his quick release to generate chances, even in tight situations.
Perhaps the biggest key in the young Slovak’s game is that he does so well reading situations, allowing himself to either get into proper defensive position or move the puck into a better spot offensively. He has no problem using his frame to leverage opponents in battles along the boards or to protect pucks, something many younger players tend to struggle with.
His biggest drawback that threatens to limit all of those talents at the NHL level is his skating. He is already working on that flaw. He has a powerful stride, but is attempting to add more acceleration to his game, which would allow him to create separation more easily.
Preliminary Rankings
Dobber Prospects: #17
Elite Prospects: #17
FCHockey: #11
Hockey Prospect: #11
Hadi Kalakeche: #17
McKeen’s: #10
Bob McKenzie (TSN): #9
NHL Central Scouting: #3 (European skaters)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic): #8
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): #8
Despite the skating flaws, few expect that he will have to wait long to hear his name called at the 2023 NHL Draft in Nashville. Originally it looked like the Montreal Canadiens’ first-round pick acquired from the Panthers would fall into the likely range for Dvorsky. However, with the Panthers advancing, that has changed things. Now the question becomes: do the Canadiens take a huge leap and draft him at fifth overall?
This is where the contentious debates begin among scouts and prospect experts. Dvorsky has most of the tools to be an NHL regular. The problem is that none of them stand out in a way that makes him a more atttractive talent than some of the more elites talents at the top of the class. Some scouts have concerns about his ability to be a consistent point-producer at five-on-five as well, even if his defensive game is well above some of his peers.
We’ve discussed the “safe” option a few times in the draft profiles series, and Dvorsky is the poster child for that in this draft class. He has all the talent and skills to be an NHL player before long, a truly high floor for a player who is still just 17 years old. However, the biggest concern is where his ceiling is, and it’s likely not in the same tier as the other names available with the opening selections.
If Montreal is truly interested in drafting Dvorsky, the smartest plan might be trading down a few spots in the Draft, stockpiling more picks along the way. On the other hand, is it worth passing up a potential star for someone who might be “just fine” as an NHL player?
Patrik Bexell talked to McKeen’s Hockey scout Matej Deraj as they discuss Dvorsky in the latest episode of Habsent Minded.
Anton Rasegård
