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2023 NHL Draft prospect profile: Colby Barlow is a sniper

Luke Durda/OHL Images

No player in the 2023 NHL Draft can shoot the puck quite like Connor Bedard. But given that the vast majority of teams have no chance at getting him, they need to look elsewhere if one of their pressing needs is on the scoring front. Bedard is in a league of his own, but after his name is called on day one of the draft, there will still be some intriguing snipers available to be selected.

Enter Colby Barlow, a top-five scorer in the Ontario Hockey League this season, and projected to be the first player off the board from his league.

Birthplace: Orillia, Ontario
Date of birth: February 14, 2005
Catches: Left
Position: Left Wing
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 187 lbs.
Team: Owen Sound Attack (OHL)

A first-round pick of the Owen Sound Attack in the 2021 OHL priority selection, Barlow’s goal -coring abilities were immediately apparent in the Junior ranks. He lit the lamp 30 times in his rookie year, tying Montreal Canadiens prospect Cedrick Guindon for the team lead, and earning all-rookie OHL honours in the process.

Barlow parlayed that success into a stellar sophomore season, scoring 46 goals, and running away with the team lead in points with 79 – 10 more than the aforementioned Guindon behind him. It was worth a nod as a first-team all-star for the year, and enough to convince most scouting services to rank him in their top 20.

Unsurprisingly, his shot is the number one tool he brings to the game, and he is arguably the best pure shooter in this draft not named Bedard. Barlow has a variety of releases that he can score with from anywhere in Junior, and while he likely won’t put home 40 immediately upon joining the NHL, there is no denying he has a pro-ready shot.

The conventional toe-drag release is a featured aspect of his game, and he generates some flat-out insane velocity with it. The mechanics to his drag shot as well as his wrister are flawless, generating maximum flex before zipping a shot that reminds you at times of a player he tries to model his game after: Auston Matthews.

Barlow also has a lethal one-timer, making him a dangerous weapon on the power play, or any time he’s given the space to wind one up. He could stand to improve his off-puck positioning to find that space better, but the sheer quality of his shot gives him a wider margin for error than most.

He is also quite literally a man among boys in the Junior ranks, and possesses physicality well beyond his years. He looks like a fully developed 27-year-old – think a current Josh Anderson being airdropped back into the OHL – who is extremely tough to move off the puck. When he’s not using his elite shot, he’ll park himself in front of the net, and shows some slick hands getting tips on shots from his teammates.

There is somewhat of a lack when it comes to playmaking skills, which could really round out his offensive game. He can and does use the threat of his shot to open up passing lanes, but isn’t quite adept at connecting plays and playing off his teammates. At times, it can make him a little one-dimensional. Though that one dimension is clearly effective in the OHL, his NHL future would be better served by adding some more playmaking.

Mitch Brown & Lassi Alanen’s tracking project

What could hold him back more than anything is his skating. He’s powerful, and very strong on his feet, but lacks elite speed and lateral agility to really set himself apart and create more space for him to shoot. He makes up for his deficiencies with a seemingly bottomless gas tank and irreproachable work ethic, but to live up to the previously mentioned Anderson comparison, he’ll need a little work on his skating.

Those physical gifts paired with his elite shot should give him a very high floor. Even without improvements in skating or playmaking, he projects as a capable depth scorer in the middle or bottom six. He won’t be fun to play against, even at the top level of hockey. With proper development, he has legitimate top-six potential, and could become the next star power forward for the team that helps him get where he needs to be.

The Anderson comparison seems relatively fair to make. Barlow may be a little slower on the feet, but arguably has a better shot. Physically, they both present quite the problem to deal with for the opposition. There is always room for a player of that mould on NHL rosters, and he should have little to no trouble making the transition when the time comes.

Preliminary Rankings

Dobber Prospects: #22
Elite Prospects: #17
FCHockey: #13
Hockey Prospect: #13
Hadi Kalakeche: #30
McKeen’s: #12
Bob McKenzie (TSN): #8
NHL Central Scouting: #12 (North American skaters)
Corey Pronman (The Athletic) #20
Scott Wheeler (The Athletic): #17

It isn’t a wonder why the rankings range from top-10 down to 30th. He’ll be an NHL player, but where he fits from the fourth line up to the top-six is unsure. Not long ago, there were rumblings that the Montreal Canadiens could be interested in him with their own pick in the top five.

I somewhat doubt that will be the case, as he just doesn’t have the same skill level as others that are projected in that range. Him dropping to the Florida pick at 31 or 32 is far from likely, and I don’t think he’s quite on the level of other players that will be around at fifth overall. Were they to make a surprise and trade back up into the teens on day one, however, I’d think they’d be very interested.

Any team who can get him in the teens will likely be quite happy. The high-level scoring abilities and pro-ready size are a combination you don’t always find in that range, so I’d expect him to be off the board before we get into the 20s.

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