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NHL Mock Draft 2025: Montreal Canadiens select Carter Bear, Justin Carbonneau at 16th, 17th overall

EOTP makes the Habs’ two first-round selections in the 2025 NHL Draft.

Credit: SportsLogos.net

As has become tradition for Kent Hughes since taking over as the general manager of the Montreal Canadiens, he approaches the day of the draft’s opening round with two first-round selections in hand. He’s typically used this as a chance to make a trade with that draft capital to help improve either the current roster (acquisitions of Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook) or his spot in the order (moving up to 21st to select Michael Hage last summer).

While the GM would love to make another trade this year, especially with the team making the 2025 post-season and aiming to go even further next year, a combination of a rising cap to alleviate financial burdens on teams and several clubs now emerging from rebuilds may make that more difficult. He may end up using both selections he holds — back-to-back picks at 16th and 17th — to add more depth to an already solid prospect pool.

As we do each year, we do a mock selection of the first-rounders the Habs hold. This year we went off Bob McKenzie’s final ranking which gets compiled from a survey of 10 NHL scouts. We started at a spot a couple of spots earlier than the Canadiens will select, anticipating a team or two breaks from this consensus and selects a player ranked lower, and used that as our pool of options.

From this list, the first 13 projected selections are:

  1. Matthew Schaefer – New York Islanders
  2. Michael Misa – San Jose Sharks
  3. Porter Martone – Chicago Blackhawks
  4. Anton Frondell – Utah Mammoth
  5. Caleb Desnoyers – Nashville Predators
  6. Jake O’Brien – Philadelphia Flyers
  7. James Hagens – Boston Bruins
  8. Brady Martin – Seattle Kraken
  9. Roger McQueen – Buffalo Sabres
  10. Victor Eklund – Anaheim Ducks
  11. Radim Mrtka – Pittsburgh Penguins
  12. Jackson Smith – Pittsburgh Penguins
  13. Kashawn Aitcheson – Detroit Red Wings

With that as a starting point, we gave our preferred options from the remainder of McKenzie’s list, and agreed upon these two prospects to bolster the organization.

Carter Bear – #16 Selection

The Canadiens are reportedly very interested in Brady Martin and that might be the player they would like to trade up to select. But if they still hold their original picks and Carter Bear remains on the board at 16th, they will have the ability to draft a similar player.

Date of Birth: November 4, 2006
Birthplace: Winnipeg, Manitoba
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 179 lbs.
Position: Centre/Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Team: Everett Silvertips (WHL)

Bear is a relentless worker and unlike many players of that description pairs it with great hockey sense. The result is a player who is a step ahead of defenders both mentally and physically, forcing opponents to chase the play he’s already creating. He’s first on pucks at both ends, intercepts passes that look to be through open lanes, uses his stick well in defence, and blocks shots. If all he had were those abilities, he would still project as a reliable bottom-six forward.

Mitch Brown & Lassi Alanen’s tracking project

That isn’t all he brings to the table, however. He also possesses strong playmaking skills with his good vision, strong passing ability, and pace changes. He battles just as hard when not in possession as he does to gain it, fighting off sticks and checks around the net to get in place for a tip and being the first onto a rebound.

Bear does just about anything you could ask for from a forward other than being a great skater, but he makes up for that with his other talents. He projects as a middle-six winger. It’s hard to see him falling short of that projection, and he isn’t far off from a development perspective of slotting into a team’s second line. He would be a great option on the opposite flank to one of Ivan Demidov and Cole Caufield in the Canadiens’ lineup.

Justin Carbonneau – #17 Selection

There haven’t been many QMJHL players selected early in recent NHL drafts, but this year Caleb Desnoyers is projected to be one of the first players taken (fifth overall in McKenzie’s ranking), and Justin Carbonneau is slotted to go right around where the Canadiens are set to make their two selections.

Carbonneau is an excellent skater who has the hands to match, and that has allowed him to skate right through opposing defences throughout his developmental years. He scored 31 goals last season with the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, and upped that to 46 in his draft season to tie for second in league goal-scoring.

Date of Birth: November 25, 2006
Birthplace: Lévis, Quebec
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 192 lbs.
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
Team: Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL)

His tactics may be a bit too effective because he attempts to force his way through on most offensive occasions and often turns the puck over, especially when he comes up against more structured teams and during the playoffs. When he does choose a different approach to incorporate his teammates more, he’s a decent passer, and his top-end shot is still a threat even when not racing toward the net at full speed. He shows the ability to be more of playmaker and cycle attacker, using his size to muscle his way out of battles, but it will take a conscious effort to break away from his preferred one-man onrushing style.

Mitch Brown & Lassi Alanen’s tracking project

He isn’t very involved in the defensive parts of the game, which is a typical characteristic of such gifted players who just want to wait for the next offensive opportunity. His quickness and deft hands would be effective in defensive situations to help out his teammates, and that will be a major part of his development over the next several years.

Carbonneau is a longer-term project who needs to improve a lot of his game before he is NHL-ready, but skating, stick-handling, and shooting are a strong base to build upon. Maybe he doesn’t manage to put all of his talents together, but with a more sure bet of Bear at 16th, gambling on a boom-or-bust prospect who has top-line upside would be a great way to take advantage of two consecutive picks. If all he can become is a power-play option and scoring third-line winger who needs sheltering, that would still be a fair outcome with the quality wingers Montreal has in the top six, and something missing from the current prospect pool.

The history of Eyes On The Prize’s NHL Mock Draft selections

2025: Justin Carbonneau (17th)
2025: Carter Bear (16th)
2024: Andrew Basha (26th)
2024: Ivan Demidov (fifth)
2023 Gracyn Sawchyn (31st)
2023: Zach Benson (fifth)
2022: Jagger Firkus (26th)
2022: Shane Wright (first)
2021: Xavier Bourgault (31st)
2020: Mavrik Bourque (16th)
2019: Thomas Harley (15th)
2018: Filip Zadina (third)
2017: Urho Vaakanainen (25th)
2016: Tyson Jost (ninth)
2015: Thomas Chabot (26th)
2014: David Pastrnak (26th)
2013: Josh Morrissey (25th)
2012: Mikhail Grigorenko (third)
2011: Mark Scheifele (17th)
2010: Ryan Spooner (27th)
2009: Scott Glennie (18th)

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