Game 64: Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators
Start time: 7:30 PM EDT / 4:30 PM PDT
In Canada: Sportsnet (English), RDS (French)
Streaming: ESPN+, RDS, Sportsnet+
The landscape is shifting rapidly in the Atlantic Division coming out of the Olympics. The Tampa Bay Lightning held a big lead in early February, but have felt the weight of their excessively compressed schedule even sooner than anticipated and have lost six of eight games played since the league resumed. The drop that seems to plague the Detroit Red Wings late in the season each year has hit and they have gone 4-6-2 in their past 12 games.
The Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins have been doing what’s necessary to essentially hold positions from where they were before the Olympics, making sure not to suffer many regulation losses.
The new leader in the division is Buffalo, thanks to the Sabres’ eight-game winning that includes two head-to-head wins over Tampa Bay. The other hot team in the section is the Ottawa Senators, who have taken 10 of the 12 points available to them in the past six games. As an indication of just how hard it is to make up ground, that has only reduced their deficit to a playoff spot from six to five points and moved them past one team in the wild-card order. But tonight, hosting the Canadiens, they have a chance to get a four-point swing versus a team they could pass before the end of the season to get into a playoff position.
Tale of the Tape
| Canadiens | Statistics | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 35-18-10 | Record | 32-22-9 |
| 48.5% | Expected-goal share | 54.8% |
| 3.54 | Goals per game | 3.35 |
| 3.25 | Goals against per game | 3.14 |
| 24.9% | PP% | 23.0% |
| 76.8% | PK% | 73.5% |
| 2-1-0 | Head-to-Head Record | 1-0-2 |
| Cole Caufield (37) | Most goals | Tim Stützle (30) |
| Lane Hutson (54) | Most assists | Tim Stützle (38) |
| Nick Suzuki (74) | Most points | Tim Stützle (68) |
Ottawa’s current run is a bit misleading. The four wins have come versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames, Seattle Kraken, and Vancouver Canucks, teams that rank around the final third of the league. The overtime losses have come versus the two playoff teams they’ve faced, the Edmonton Oilers and Detroit Red Wings, the latter of which a missed opportunity to gain ground in their race.
The actual results may not be as impressive upon closer inspection, but the Senators’ overall play has been. They rank as one of the best teams in the league in expected-goal share at 54.8%. While both their goal-scoring and defence are only average, having both aspects at decent levels is more than many teams in the race can boast.
The one area that has really gotten them down this season is their goaltending, which ranks last in the NHL at an .871 save percentage. Even over this current run, Linus Ullmark only sports an .884 mark. But since the goaltenders only face an average of 24.3 shots per game, the Senators have been able to stay in the mix despite that inefficiency.
Ottawa is a tough team to play against, but the Canadiens have faced them three times before this season and claimed four points already. They know that Tim Stützle is the main player they need to focus on while also being wary of his attempts to draw penalties; only five players in the NHL have earned more calls from the officials. But this isn’t just a one-person team. Over their current six-game point streak, six players have at least five points, led by Stützle’s seven.
This is the biggest game of Montreal’s season to this point. A regulation win would move them nine points clear of the Senators, and with just 18 games remaining that would be extremely difficult for Ottawa to make up. It’s as close as the Habs can come at this stage to eliminating one of the divisional opponents as a threat to pass them, and that should bring out their best effort.
