2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs – Eastern Conference SFs
Game 3: Montreal Canadiens (A3) vs. Buffalo Sabres (A1)
Series tied 1-1
Start time: 7:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM PDT
In Canada: CBC, Sportsnet (English), TVA Sports (French)
In the United States: ESPN
Streaming: Sportsnet+
Losing Game 1 by a bigger margin than any match in the opening round, the Montreal Canadiens responded in a big way on Friday night. With a 5-1 win, they won by four goals for the first time since March 21, making the necessary adjustments to have one of their best, and certainly least stressful, games of the playoffs.
The win improved their road record to 4-2 as they have continued to play very well away from the Bell Centre, as they did in the regular season. Now they have returned home, where they only claimed one win in three tries versus the Tampa Bay Lightning. The two losses were by one goal, but losses nonetheless, so the Canadiens will want to perform better in front of their home crowd.
It was the first game on home ice versus Tampa Bay that the Habs won, so they’re looking to repeat that feat. They should be very confident after their five-goal outing that saw them fairly easily moving the puck through the offensive zone, using 11 high-danger chances in the opening 40 minutes to hold a 3-1 lead. The Sabres will try to play a more stable game tonight, but they don’t have the same shutdown players or tactics as the Lightning, so the chances will still be there.
Tale of the Tape
| Canadiens | Statistics | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 47.2% | Expected-goal share | 52.4% |
| 2.56 | Goals per game | 3.13 |
| 2.22 | Goals against per game | 2.38 |
| 18.2% | PP% | 9.4% |
| 81.1% | PK% | 87.0% |
| Dach/Newhook (3) | Most goals | Alex Tuch (4) |
| Kaiden Guhle (5) | Most assists | Tage Thompson (5) |
| Nick Suzuki (8) | Most points | Alex Tuch (7) |
Alex Newhook took advantage of that space to net two goals, and now linemate Ivan Demidov could step up to have a productive night. Demidov was temporarily out of the game after big hit from Jordan Greenway on the power play, but still ended up playing 13:18 and had the best expected goal share of any player at 95.0% in his five-on-five minutes. He was also the only skater without an attempt on the net at five-on-five in the game despite all of that offensive play, so Newhook and centreman Jake Evans will be making more of a point to find him for chances in this one.
It should only be a matter of time before the top line breaks out as well. Cole Caufield had a team-high six scoring chances in Game 2, three of those at five-on-five, and came within a fraction of an inch of scoring from the slot on the power play when his shot hit the crossbar. He’s getting the puck in better areas than he did in the first round, and the scoring touch should return at any moment.
The Sabres have their own offensive stars who could explode for a big night, however, so the focus for Montreal can’t all be on getting their own player producing. Alex Tuch, Josh Norris, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Zach Benson all had at least three shots toward Jakub Dobeš in Game 2, with Benson scoring on a crease-side deflection after stealing the puck, so it wasn’t that the Canadiens prevented them from getting in the offensive zone.
What we’ve seen so far is that the Sabres will push too hard trying to create goals, especially the defencemen who are some of their top offensive players, and that leaves them open to rush chances on the counter-attack. If Lindy Ruff’s adjustment is to have his defencemen play a more conservative style, which appears to be what he wants to see after criticizing the team’s over-aggressive play, having Dahlin, Bowen Byram, and Owen Power thinking about their defence will limit the support the star forwards have to get involved on the scoreboard.
