2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs – Eastern Conference SFs
Game 1: Montreal Canadiens (A3) @ Buffalo Sabres (A1)
Start time: 7:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM PDT
In Canada: CBC, Sportsnet (English), TVA Sports (French)
In the United States: TNT, truTV
Streaming: Sportsnet+
In the regular season, the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres met four times. Each scored 13 goals, and each grabbed two wins. The teams were 1-1-0 at home, and 1-1-0 on the road in a season series that wrapped up with three games in the final two weeks of January. At the end of the season, the teams were separated by three points, and were tied for top spot in the Atlantic Division as late as April 12, a week before the post-season got under way.
To say they were closely matched is about as much of an understatement as saying that the Canadiens opening-round series with the Tampa Bay Lightning was tightly contested. As in that seven-game series, there isn’t much that separates the Habs and Sabres.
From a highly competitive Atlantic Division that had five teams make the playoffs, the most of any section, Montreal and Buffalo are the only ones remaining, having knocked off two members of the old guard in the Lightning and Boston Bruins, while the Ottawa Senators were the first team eliminated in Round 1. Whichever teams wins, it will be a young representative for the division in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Tale of the Tape
| Canadiens | Statistics | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 46.7% | Expected-goal share | 52.9% |
| 2.29 | Goals per game | 3.33 |
| 2.14 | Goals against per game | 2.00 |
| 19.2% | PP% | 4.2% |
| 82.8% | PK% | 87.5% |
| 2-2-0 | Head-to-Head Record | 2-2-0 |
| Juraj Slafkovský (3) | Most goals | Alex Tuch (4) |
| Nick Suzuki (5) | Most assists | Tage Thompson (5) |
| Lane Hutson (6) | Most points | Alex Tuch (7) |
Each team’s blue line is led by an elite 200-foot player who will feature high in this year’s Norris Trophy voting. In a tight series versus the Lightning in which most players were struggling to find offence, Lane Hutson managed six points, and on the four winning goals the Canadiens had in the seven-game series he registered a primary point: three assists, and the winning goal himself in Game 3. He heads into the second round with the team points lead at two goals and four assists, and also leads in ice time 27:23, the eighth-highest average deployment of the post-season.
For the Sabres, that player is Rasmus Dahlin. The first-overall pick from the 2018 draft is living up to his billing as one of the cornerstones of the Sabres, helping them reach their current competitive level. He played just over 24 minutes during the series with the Bruins, helping out with four points and finishing with a +3 rating.
The biggest differences for the two teams coming out of the opening round is that Montreal’s top forwards were locked down by the Lightning, while Buffalo’s enjoyed a lot of offensive success versus the Bruins. The line of Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch combined for eight goals, all at even strength. They will be confident they can continue to produce, while Montreal top three are still trying to find their offensive footing.
That five-on-five offence was needed for Buffalo because their power play struggled. From a below-average efficiency of 19.5% in the regular season, they currently rank as the worst of the 16 teams that made the playoffs at 4.2%, scoring one goal in 24 opportunities. The also gave up a short-handed goal, making them even in situations when playing with the extra skater.
Montreal allowed five power-play goals to the Lightning. The team tried to run a three-defenceman rotation of Mike Matheson, Alexandre Carrier, and Kaiden Guhle, and the first two had some issues keeping the puck from the top of the crease. However, with the return of Noah Dobson, they now have two stable pairs that can be deployed in short-handed situations, which will lighten the load especially on Matheson and Carrier. Being able to keep Buffalo’s special teams off the board as the Bruins were able to will help the Habs overcome the expected offence the Sabres’ main forwards will create.
