Game 48: Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
Start time: 7:00 PM EST / 4:00 PM PST
In the Canadiens region: TSN2 (English), RDS (French)
In the Sabres region: MSG Buffalo
Streaming: ESPN+, RDS, TSN+
The outlook was bleak for the Buffalo Sabres two months into the season. Already in a 14-year playoff drought, an 11-14-4 record on December 8 had them on their way to a 15th. The fans in Buffalo had gone from upset at their team to just giving up on it completely with crowds several thousand spectators below KeyBank Center’s 19,070 capacity.
Fortunately for the Sabres, they weren’t alone among Atlantic Division teams struggling to begin the season. Despite just 11 wins in their first 29 games, they were eight points back of the third seed in the division, and nine out of first. There was work to do, but making up that ground over the final two-thirds of the of the season was far from an impossible task.
Like the Montreal Canadiens experienced last season, a long road trip was what the Sabres needed to turn their fortunes around. A tour of the Canadian teams in the Western Conference hadn’t begun well with their 13th and 14th multi-goal losses in the aforementioned 29-game start, but they were able to get a win in Edmonton on December 9. They didn’t lose again in 2025.
When that 10-game winning streak completed on New Year’s Eve, the Sabres had passed eight teams to occupy a wild-card spot, and could see the Canadiens just two points ahead in third place in the Atlantic. The Habs have since grown that lead to five points, but everyone now has the message that every game, and especially the intradivisional battles, is going to be crucial in 2025-26.
Tale of the Tape
| Canadiens | Statistics | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 26-14-7 | Record | 24-16-4 |
| 49.1% (21st) | Expected-goal share | 50.4% (15th) |
| 3.34 (5th) | Goals per game | 3.22 (12th) |
| 3.19 (22nd) | Goals against per game | 3.11 (20th) |
| 22.4% (12th) | PP% | 18.5% (22nd0 |
| 79.7% (14th) | PK% | 84.6% (4th) |
| 1-0-0 | Head-to-Head Record | 0-1-0 |
| Cole Caufield (21) | Most goals | Tage Thompson (22) |
| Lane Hutson (37) | Most assists | Rasmus Dahlin (26) |
| Nick Suzuki (50) | Most points | Tage Thompson (44) |
As things tend to go in Buffalo in the current era, if the team is doing well, it’s probably because Tage Thompson is on one of his famous hot streaks, and that applies in this case as well. Before the winning streak, he had a rather average output of 23 points in 29 games, and was also a team-worst -14; a tough combination from the team’s top forward for any club to overcome. He has almost matched that production over the past 16 games, with 21 points in that span and a more helpful +3 rating. Linemate Alex Tuch has managed to be consistent all season long, their top scorer through the opening third of he year, and now their third-best during this current run, compiling a total of 38 points in 44 games.
The real stars of this run might be their top-four defencemen. Bowen Byram, the player acquired from the Colorado Avalanche for Casey Mittelstadt at the 2024 trade deadline, is playing over 23 minutes per game since the winning run began, and has been a +17 to go along with 12 points, all at even strength. Rasmus Dahlin, whose attention has been split between the team and his fiancée who had heart transplant surgery during the summer, has matched that total while playing 24 minutes per game. And Mattias Samuelsson has led all players in ice time as its top penalty-killer, and added 11 points, including two while short-handed.
Samuelsson is a big reason why the Sabres rank as one of the league’s elite penalty-killing teams at an 84.6% efficiency. The other is the work of their goaltenders. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon have posted save percentages of .928 and .919, respectively, over the past 16 games. With Lyon currently day-to-day with a lower-body injury, Colten Ellis has received a couple of recent starts, and stopped 58 of the 63 shots he’s faced. There have been a lot of games recently when the Sabres have allowed three of fewer goals, and 10 times in the last 16 matches their opponent has scored no more than two.
Their offence is turning those defensive performances into wins. You have to go back to November 6 to find the last time the Sabres lost a game when allowing three goals or fewer. Montreal just had one of those losses after not taking enough advantage of the chances they generated in the game versus the Washington Capitals. Even the previous game when they beat the Vancouver Canucks 6-3 there were prime opportunities to score about twice that many goals. If the Canadiens want to increase their lead in the standings over the Sabres who currently serve as their greatest threat, they need to be better at taking advantage of whatever opportunities they create.
