Game 68: Montreal Canadiens @ Detroit Red Wings
Start time: 7:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM PDT
In the Canadiens region: TSN2 (English), RDS (French)
In the Red Wings region: FanDuel Sports Network Detroit
Streaming: ESPN+, RDS, TSN+
On February 27, 2024, the Detroit Red Wings won their sixth consecutive game by beating the Washington Capitals, turning what was a seven-point gap in the wild-card race to a nine-point edge. They then won only three of the final 15 games in the 2023-24 season. Though they finished tied with the Capitals at 91 points, they lost the second wild-card spot due to five fewer regulation wins, and missed the playoffs.
The Red Wings were the hottest team in the Eastern Conference when the league paused for the 4 Nations Face-Off last season, having a seven-game winning streak snapped one game before that in-season tournament began. That run propelled them past three teams and into a wild-card slot. Only the Boston Bruins had a worse record among Atlantic Division teams in the final third of the campaign, and in the end the Red Wings were five points back of the Montreal Canadiens in the eighth and final playoff position when all 82 games had been played.
When the NHL halted its schedule this February to allow players to participate in the Olympics, Detroit was tied with Montreal for second in the Atlantic Division and had a seven-point cushion to the first team outside the playoff picture. In the 10 games since, they have a record of 4-4-2, the lowest points percentage of any team in the Eastern Conference playoff race outside of the Tampa Bay Lightning, and none of the wins have come versus a team in a playoff spot. They currently cling to the second wild-card position by one point, with one more game played than the hard-charging Columbus Blue Jackets.
The point total might be higher — the Red Wings are on pace for 99 after those 91 points were their peak in the last nine years — but the situation is looking familiar for them, an inability to keep pace with the other playoff contenders in the final portion of the season. They have 14 games left to make sure they fall no lower than where they sit now, and taking half of the points available to them over the remainder of the season probably won’t be enough to hang on.
Tale of the Tape
| Canadiens | Statistics | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| 37-20-10 | Record | 37-23-8 |
| 48.9% (22nd) | Expected-goal share | 50.1% (17th) |
| 3.49 (4th) | Goals per game | 2.91 (20th) |
| 3.24 (25th) | Goals against per game | 2.94 (12th) |
| 24.1% (7th) | PP% | 21.9% (14th) |
| 76.9% (27th) | PK% | 78.7% (18th) |
| 1-1-0 | Head-to-Head Record | 1-1-0 |
| Cole Caufield (40) | Most goals | Alex DeBrincat (33) |
| Lane Hutson (58) | Most assists | Lucas Raymond (46) |
| Nick Suzuki (80) | Most points | Alex DeBrincat (69) |
An injury to Dylan Larkin isn’t helping them stabilize their play. The captain took a cross-check in the ribs on March 4, and played one more game before needing the leave the lineup. He is expected to be out for at least another week.
Missing a player with double-digit power-play goals on the season has significantly impacted the man advantage. Operating at 22.5% on the season when he went down, it’s been at 15.8% in his six-game absence. When everyone is healthy, the Red Wings have one of the most dangerous special-teams fivesomes in the league, but it’s apparent how much of an impact he has on the unit. Detroit is tied for the lowest goal total in the league since he exited, and they’ve barely been able to stay afloat with such low production.
Struggling to score is a bad situation for Detroit to be in with Montreal coming to town. Even at their healthiest, the Red Wings averaged about half a goal less than the Canadiens. In the past three years, the Habs have scored at a rate of 3.5 goals per game in this matchup, although the most recent one saw John Gibson claim the shutout in a 4-0 win.
As mentioned by EOTP member Alex Manley, that previous meeting between the teams on January 10 was the last time the Canadiens lost a game by more than one non-empty-net goal. Montreal’s play has been heavily scrutinized as the playoffs approach, especially for some concerning defensive lapses, yet the team manages to find a way to score the one extra goal more often than not. We’ve seen them elevate their play at the most important times recently, getting a 3-2 win over the Ottawa Senators eight days ago, and on Tuesday smashing their season high of 15 five-on-five high-danger scoring chances set in the last game before the Olympics with 21 versus the Boston Bruins, claiming an overtime win versus a team that could have overtaken them in the standings.
This will be another huge game in their season. It’s a chance to build a four-point gap to a divisional opponent and still hold one game in hand. It’s also an opportunity to sow some more doubt for a competing club that could be at the beginning of another late-season collapse and headed toward a 10th consecutive season that ends without a playoff appearance.
