2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs – Eastern Conference QFs
Game 5: Montreal Canadiens (A3) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (A2)
Series tied 2-2
Start time: 7:00 PM EDT / 4:00 PM PDT
In Canada: CBC, Sportsnet (English), TVA Sports (French)
In the United States: ESPN2
In the Lightning region: The Spot
Streaming: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
Through the first three games of the series between the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning, the Habs had held their opponent to eight high-danger chances at five-on-five. In the first period of Game 4 alone, the Lightning tested Jakub Dobeš five times from right around the crease. Tampa Bay ended the game with nine, more than doubling their series total, while the Canadiens managed just two after no fewer than six such chances in any game to that point.
Thanks to all those opportunities, the Lightning won the expected-goals battle, and the results of that competition have matched the outcomes of the games so far. The two teams have alternated leading that category since Game 1, just like the wins have gone to see the series even at two games apiece.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that two teams with potent offensive players are finding their best success when they’re able to get the puck close to the net. Jakub Dobeš and Andrei Vasilevskiy are big goaltenders who swallow up most of the shots from distance that get sent their way, so it takes plays from in close to register some offence. For whatever reason, the Canadiens were unable to make that happen in Game 4, and will need to refocus on getting to the tough areas if they want to take a third lead in the series.
Tale of the Tape
| Canadiens | Statistics | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Expected-goal share | 47.0% |
| 2.75 | Goals per game | 2.75 |
| 2.75 | Goals against per game | 2.75 |
| 26.3% | PP% | 20.0% |
| 80.0% | PK% | 73.7% |
| Juraj Slafkovský (3) | Most goals | Brandon Hagel (6) |
| Nick Suzuki (4) | Most assists | Jake Guentzel (6) |
| Lane Hutson (4) | Most points | Brandon Hagel (7) |
The Canadiens will hope that the player with the hottest stick in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Brandon Hagel and his 66.7% shooting percentage, will cool off for this game, but there’s more they need to do than just wait for his efficiency to come back down to Earth. A couple of his six goals have been tap-ins from the top of the crease on the power play. In both cases, the puck was sent past the feet of Mike Matheson who has been tasked with defending that section of the ice and missed that backdoor play on both occasions. He also leads the team in giveaways, many of them from trying to carry the puck through traffic on breakouts, so there is room for improvement from the most veteran member of the defence corps.
Even with Hagel’s astronomical conversion rate, Dobeš hasn’t allowed more than three goals in any game. That’s important in a series that has seen three goals be enough for a win in the past three games, with margins as thin as they could possibly be. There’s no reason to expect things to open up now, with both clubs using the six games of experience they have against one another in the past month to know what to expect.
The Canadiens have won two of the last three games they’ve played at Benchmark International Arena, and have been at least tied after regulation in all of the last four matches they’ve played there. The Habs were one of the league’s best road teams, and already have a win, and almost a second, in Tampa already. They’re confident they can win this game, and if they play like they did in the first three of this series by turning their zone time into dangerous chances, they can keep the trend of alternating wins going.
