Game 56: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Start time: **1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM PST**
In the Canadiens region: TSN2 (English), RDS (French)
In the Lightning region: FanDuel Sports Network Sun
Streaming: ESPN+, RDS, TSN+
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been a tough opponent for Montreal in recent history. There was of course the 4-1 series win in the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, and they had won 16 of the past 19 regular-season matches coming into this year, including a sweep of the four-game slate last season. In 2024-25, the Canadiens have gotten the better of their rival, already winning the series with two wins, both in regulation.
On January 21, the Lightning made the trip to Montreal after losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs the previous night. As overtime seemed imminent, a goal from Jake Evans with 2:15 to play gave Montreal the full result instead.
That night, the Canadiens pulled within a point of the Lightning for the third seed in the Atlantic Division. As we know, it’s been all downhill for the Habs since. Sporting a -12 goal differential after that night, it has dropped down to -29 after seven losses in their past eight games. It’s been a bad combination of panicked defence, poor transition play, and bone-dry offence leading to their fall from playoff aspirant to now draft-lottery hopeful.
Yesterday’s game was encouraging, however, if you forget about the 4-0 score and look at how the game was played. The defence was much better for the most part, with a couple of brief lapses resulting in a couple of goals against. Montreal had a large number of scoring chances as they showed plenty of creativity in tight, but they just couldn’t get any of those passes to connect. Winning the expected-goals battle has been a very rare thing during this slide, but yesterday they came out on top by a two-to-one margin, and the result would have been very different if a couple of their early looks had gone in.
| Canadiens | Statistics | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| 25-25-5 | Record | 30-20-4 |
| 48.5% (25th) | Scoring-chances-for % | 52.0% (9th) |
| 2.87 (17th) | Goals per game | 3.54 (3rd) |
| 3.40 (29th) | Goals against per game | 2.76 (10th) |
| 20.4% (20th) | PP% | 28.5% (5th) |
| 82.2% (7th) | PK% | 81.2% (11th) |
| 2-0-0 | Head-to-Head Record | 0-2-0 |
Fortunately, goals haven’t been an issue when Tampa Bay is the opponent this season, with a total of eight scored in the first two games. Alex Newhook and Jake Evans have scored in each game (with Evans’s goals counting as the winners in both matches). Yesterday, it was Newhook who led all Habs players with an expected-goal share of 88.5% at five-on-five — and finished with a -1 because that’s just the type of day it was for Montreal.
In a quirk of the schedule, all three games of this series have fallen as the second one in a back-to-back for both teams. That has led to some interesting goaltending decisions from the two coaches concerning which goalie to use in a particular situation. Martin St-Louis tapped Samuel Montembeault in the first game after Jakub Dobes had shut out the Florida Panthers the night before in his NHL debut, and the coach’s decision was the same on January 21. This time, he’s given the net to Dobes for his first career game versus Tampa Bay.
Jon Cooper went with backup Jonas Johansson in the first game and saw his team give up five goals. Last time out it was Andrei Vasilevskiy who faced Montreal. This time, the decision may have been taken out of Cooper’s hands by an injury to Johansson. With the number-two option being the untested Brandon Halverson — 12:33 of relief back in 2017-18 for the New York Rangers — the choice may be to run with Vasilevskiy in back-to-back games with a two-week break about to begin and Tampa Bay needing all the points it can get in its fight to make the post-season.
Dobes will be facing a team that currently has four 25-goal-scorers. The Canadiens have just the one in Cole Caufield. The Habs will need to take better advantage of the opportunities they create to outproduce such a potent offence.
