2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs – Eastern Conference Final
Game 5: Montreal Canadiens (A3) @ Carolina Hurricanes (M1)
CAR leads 3-1
Start time: **8:00 PM EDT / 5:00 PM PDT**
In Canada: CBC, Sportsnet (English), TVA Sports (French)
In the United States: TNT, truTV
Streaming: HBO Max, Sportsnet+
Since the Montreal Canadiens began the Eastern Conference Final with a rather shocking 6-2 win, their performances have progressively gotten worse. They had a close match in Game 2 that got decided in overtime, another overtime decision two nights later that they can thank Jakub Dobeš for holding them in, and most recently experienced a first period similar to the one they enjoyed opened the series, for the their second-largest margin of defeat of the 18 post-season games they’ve played so far.
The Habs went into the series knowing they were underdogs, and Carolina’s 55.9% expected-goal percentage in Game 1 was about what most imagined their edge in play would look like. However, that number has steadily risen in the series, up to a mark of 82.6% in Game 4 at the Bell Centre that Montreal couldn’t have dealt with even if Dobeš had turned in a second consecutive stellar performance. Their 17.4% share of the expected goals was their lowest of the 100 games they’ve played in the 2025-26 season.
The one thing the Canadiens can take from the 4-0 loss in Game 4 is that they had one of their best 20-minute performances in the second period. They managed to get 10 shots in that frame after totals of 12 and 13 through Games 2 and 3, respectively. That will be important for the Canadiens to replicate, as much to try to score as to get a break from constantly rotating through their coverage in the defensive zone as they’ve done for the majority of the series so far.
Tale of the Tape
| Canadiens | Statistics | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 42.4% | Expected-goal share | 60.1% |
| 2.94 | Goals per game | 3.00 |
| 2.78 | Goals against per game | 1.68 |
| 23.3% | PP% | 11.8% |
| 77.9% | PK% | 93.8% |
| Alex Newhook (7) | Most goals | Logan Stankoven (8) |
| Nick Suzuki (12) | Most assists | Hall/Blake (9) |
| Nick Suzuki (16) | Most points | Hall/Blake (13) |
If they can do that from the start of the game they will give themselves a chance in Game 5. They’ve been unprepared, or unwilling, to match the intensity of the Hurricanes from the opening puck drop and found themselves trailing in all four games. Too often in the past two series they’ve been playing uphill versus a team that can settle in defensively with a lead, and that has probably worn everyone out more than just the number of games they’ve played. The one time they did play with a lead was when they recovered from an opening-minute goal in Game 1 to score two in a three-minute span, and carried that to a 6-2 win. It’s the only time they’ve forced Carolina to try to come from behind, and that went poorly for the regular-season conference champions.
There’s nothing for the Canadiens to lose now. If they do the same thing they’ve done in the past two games, their season is going to come to an end. Dobeš has said publicly that he treats every game like a Game 7, which is why he’s been engaged in every match played so far, and that’s the mentality the team needs to have. All they can do is put everything into the effort in what could be the final game of the season.
What that should look like is less hesitation in getting to loose pucks and heading up ice with them, crisper plays in their own zone to limit Carolina’s zone time, and, maybe most important of all, taking shots at every opportunity they can. Frederik Andersen has the lowest save percentage of the five goalies to start a game in the conference finals, at just .859. The Canadiens left the Bell Centre for this one-game trip to Bronx cheers for finally managing to force him into a few saves at the end of the third period, and we’ll find out what the players’ response is to that performance.
